FOMC JUNE 14, 15, 2016 lom akan menaekkan the fed fund rate, seh ... Juli 2016 itu pun maseh sebuah kemungkinan ... kacian, pasar global tersandera the FED lage, kayak 2015 ... well, gw mah hepi2 aza lah :)
The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday for the first time in a year and signaled that rates could continue to rise next year more quickly than officials had expected.
The increase was unanimous and modest, raising the Fed’s key interest rate by a quarter point, from a range of 0.25 to 0.5 percent to a range of 0.5 to 0.75 percent. It reflects Fed officials' confidence in the strengthening of the U.S. economy and what officials see as budding signs of higher inflation.
But unlike corporate executives and stock traders, Fed officials do not appear to be anticipating a massive growth boost next year from economic policies implemented by President-elect Donald Trump, but they appear set to raise rates faster if those policies were to cause an overheating in the economy.
Markets were slightly up immediately after the announcement, but they started to dive about an hour later, after Fed Chair Janet L. Yellen concluded a news conference about the rate hike. The Dow Jones industrial average closed down 0.6 percent, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index slid 0.8 percent, and the Nasdaq tech index was down 0.5 percent.
Yellen told reporters that she and the Federal Open Market Committee were “recognizing the considerable progress the economy has made” toward full employment and an inflation target of 2 percent. She indicated that she did not see much need for a large, deficit-financed boost from federal fiscal policy, either tax cuts or spending increases.
“I would say at this point that fiscal policy is not obviously needed to provide stimulus to help us get back to full employment,” Yellen said. She then added that she was not trying to advise Trump and Congress on fiscal issues.
Economic projections also released by the central bank indicate that the Fed now expects the economy to grow 1.9 percent in 2016 and 2.1 percent in 2017. The projections show that the group expects the Fed to increase rates three times in 2017, to a rate of 1.4 percent by year's end. Its September projections signaled only two expected hikes next year.
Analysts have warned that if Trump and Congress agree to slash tax rates and increase spending in areas such as infrastructure the Fed could be forced to raise rates faster than expected to counter rising prices.
Yellen highlighted uncertainty over those policies at her news conference but said some Fed officials had tried to incorporate expected fiscal changes in their forecasts. Since Trump’s election, markets have jumped — with the Dow closing in on a record-breaking 20,000 — and long-term rates and the dollar have increased.
Several analysts said the Fed was right to take that approach to the new administration’s policies. “The Fed will likely be in wait-and-see mode, given this substantial policy uncertainty,” said Doug Duncan, the chief economist at Fannie Mae, “and we view this prudency a virtue.”
Much of the Fed statement released Wednesday was unchanged from November, when the Fed declined to raise rates, choosing “to wait for some further evidence of continued progress” toward maximum employment in the economy and a target inflation rate of 2 percent. Officials said Wednesday, as they said a month ago, that “near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced” — meaning growth is as likely to speed up as it is to slow down.
Fed officials now judge the overall inflation rate to be 1.5 percent, up from 1.3 percent in September, but still well below target. They judge core inflation, which excludes volatile commodities such as gasoline prices, to be 1.7 percent.
In the statement, officials said that “inflation has increased since earlier this year,” a change from November, when the statement said that “inflation has increased somewhat since earlier this year.” Officials also said that measures of inflation compensation “have moved up considerably but remain low.” Last month, the word “considerably” did not appear in that line.
The Fed's decision drew criticism from some liberal economists who want rates to stay as low as possible to further boost employment while inflation remains below target.
“The Fed's action today was unwelcome but not unexpected. Still huge economic risks and little evidence of an inflation problem” economist and former treasury secretary Larry Summers wrote in a tweet.
Yellen, in her news conference, said she does not favor running a “high-pressure economy” where inflation might overshoot its target. “I do want to make clear,” she said, “that I have not recommended running a hot economy as some sort of experiment.”
Fed raisesPlay Video0:53
The central bank last raised rates at its December meeting a year ago, its first step toward moving the Fed from what economists call the zero-lower bound — meaning interest rates hovering around zero percents.
Trump has promised to cut taxes for individuals and corporations and to boost infrastructure spending by as much as $1 trillion through tax credits that his team says will pay for themselves.
Although Trump praised the Fed chair during his campaign, saying he has “great respect” for Yellen, he was mostly critical. Accusing Yellen and the Fed of keeping rates low to help President Obama, Trump said in September: “I think she is very political, and to a certain extent, I think she should be ashamed of herself.”
Yellen's term ends in early 2018. Asked about whether she would leave her post when the president-elect takes office, the Fed chair said: “I do intend to serve out my four-year term. I haven’t made any decision about the future.”
Analysts did not expect Fed officials to change their forecasts of future increases this month based on an expectation of what Trump and Congress might do.
“We very much doubt that FOMC members want to be accused of seeking to influence Congress and the new administration,” analysts at Pantheon Macroeconomics wrote this week, “given how unpopular the Fed is already with Republican politicians.”
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A measure of Chicago-area economic activity fell in May back into contraction territory, an indication that the manufacturing sector is still sluggish.
Chicago PMI fell 1.1 points to 49.3 in May, MNI Indicators reported. That’s the lowest level since February and the sixth time in 12 months it’s been below the 50 level marking contraction.
The internals of the report weren’t great, either. There was a 6.6-point fall in production — which fell to its lowest level since February — and the new orders index also slipped.
“Firms ran down stocks at the fastest pace for more than 6 years in May, and while a rebuilding over the coming months could support output, the underlying message appears to be that businesses are not confident about the outlook for growth,” said Philip Uglow, chief economist of MNI Indicators.
The Chicago PMI is the last of the regional indexes that come out ahead of the national Institute for Supply Management poll, due on Wednesday. That’s expected to show a very slight expansion, according to a MarketWatch-compiled economist poll.
JAKARTA. Bursa saham Asia menguat pada perdagangan hari ini menyusul data tenaga kerja AS yang lebih rendah dari perkiraan menurunkan spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga AS bulan ini. Indeks MSCI Asia Pacific Index menguat 1,3% pada pukul 07.16 waktu London (13.16 WIB), dipimpin oleh sektor bahan baku. Berdasarkan laporan Departemen Tenaga Kerja AS Jumat pekan lalu, jumlah tenaga kerja meningkat 151.000 bulan lalu menyusul kenaikan pada bulan Juli sebesar 275.000 Jumlah ini lebih rendah dari perkiraan median dalam survei Bloomberg yang mencapai 180.000. Sementara itu, prpbabilitas kenaikan suku bunga AS bulan ini menurun ke 32% dari 34% persen pada Kamis. Probabilitas sempat turun ke 20% setelah rilis laporan tenaga kerja. "Data nonfarm payrolls Agustus yang mengecewakan pada dasarnya mengurangi risiko atau menunda kenaikan suku bunga pada September," kata Elias Haddad, analis mata senior Commonwealth Bank of Australia kepada Bloomberg. Ia melanjutkan, hal ini biasanya mendorong asset-aset berisiko seperti mata uang berimbal hasil tinggi. Sementara itu, indeks Hang Seng menguat 1,7% dipimpin oleh saham sektor property setelah data menunjukkan penjualan rumah di kota naik ke level tertinggi 14 bulan terakhir pada Agustus. "Penjualan properti Hong Kong masih cukup baik dan dengan penurunan kemungkinan kenaikan suku bunga AS, saham properti dapat melanjutkan penguatan dari Agustus," kata Linus Yip, analis First Shanghai Securities, kepada Bloomberg. http://market.bisnis.com/read/20160905/7/581338/bursa-asia-spekulasi-kenaikan-suku-bunga-as-berkurang-msci-asia-pacific-menguat Sumber : BISNIS.COM
By
RIVA GOLD and
TIMOTHY PUKO
U.S. stocks rebounded Monday, led by a rally in financial shares.
The prospect of higher rates tends to strengthen the dollar and weaken stock markets, which have been boosted by years of loose monetary policy. But some investors were skeptical that an increase would come soon, or that it would be big enough to shake the long-running rally.
“The bull market ends on a recession, it doesn’t end on a rate hike,” said Michael Antonelli, equity sales trader at Robert W. Baird.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 108 points, or 0.6%, to 18503. The S&P 500 gained 0.5% and the Nasdaq Composite added 0.3%.
Fed-fund futures, used by investors to bet on central-bank policy, recently suggested a 21% probability of a rate rise in September, compared with 33% on Friday and 21% Thursday, according to data from CME Group.The odds for a rate rise by the end of year were roughly 52%.
Financial shares in the S&P 500 rose 1%. Higher interest rates tend to widen the difference between what banks charge on loans and pay on deposits, which should boost earnings.
ENLARGEJanet Yellen, chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, speaks during a House Financial Services Committee hearing in Washington, D.C., on June 22.PHOTO: BLOOMBERG NEWS
The sector has lagged behind the broader index this year as investors curbed their expectations for rising rates. Financials are up almost 2% so far this year, compared with the S&P 500’s gain of nearly 7%.
Shares of Wells Fargo rose 2.2% Monday. J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. added 1.1%. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking exchange-traded fund rose 0.8%.
Michael Ball, portfolio manager with Weatherstone Capital Management, said he was considering buying shares of the ETF but was waiting for a more definitive sign on interest rates. November’s presidential election and the Fed’s past hesitation make him skeptical an increase will come before December, he said.
“They tend to err on the side of being cautious,” he added. “So even if you have a good jobs report but something weak internationally, it may give them an excuse to say they’re going to hold off.”
The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of 16 currencies, rose 0.1%, building on its biggest weekly rise since May.
Prices for dollar-denominated commodities dropped as the dollar strengthened. U.S. crude oil declined 1.4% to $46.98 a barrel.
U.S. economic data now faces heavy scrutiny ahead of the next FOMC meeting on Sept. 20-21. Fed officials are watching data like inflation and hiring as they consider the path of interest rates. The monthly jobs report is due Friday.
Consumer spending rose for the fourth straight month in July, the Commerce Department said Monday. Meanwhile, the personal-consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, was flat in July from the prior month.
In the short term, “strong payrolls would be very bad news for equities,” said Florian Ielpo at Swiss fund manager Unigestion. Solid data would strengthen the case for a rate rise in September and call into question a recent rally in emerging markets, which hold large quantities of dollar-denominated debt, he said.
Still, longer term, he said, “when a central bank decides to increase rates, it means the country and companies are doing very well.”
INILAHCOM, Chicago - Emas berjangka di divisi COMEX New York Mercantile Exchange berakhir menguat pada Jumat (26/8/2016), didukung perdagangan teknikal meskipun Ketua Federal Reserve AS membawakan nada "hawkish".
Kontrak emas yang paling aktif untuk pengiriman Desember naik 1,3 dolar AS, atau 0,1 persen, menjadi menetap di 1.325,9 dolar AS per ounce.
Perdagangan teknikal yang sangat volatil menyebabkan peningkatan dalam harga emas, setelah Ketua Federal Reserve AS Janet Yellen pada Jumat mengindikasikan bahwa dia yakin alasan untuk peningkatan suku bunga Fed AS telah menguat selama beberapa bulan terakhir dalam pidatonya di Jackson, di negara bagian Wyoming.
Setelah Yellen menunjukkan bahwa ia akan terbuka untuk kenaikan suku bunga secepatnya pada bulan depan, pedagang sekarang percaya bahwa Fed akan menaikkan suku bunga dari 0,50 persen ke 0,75 persen selama pertemuan Komite Pasar Terbuka Federal (FOMC) November bukan pertemuan Desember FOMC.
Menurut alat Fedwatch CME Group, probabilitas tersirat saat ini untuk kenaikan suku bunga dari 0,50 persen ke 0,75 persen adalah 36 persen pada pertemuan September 2016, 61 persen pada pertemuan November 2016 dan 38 persen pada pertemuan Desember.
Penguatan dalam dolar AS mencegah logam mulia dari reli lebih lanjut karena indeks dolar AS naik 0,87 persen menjadi 95,54 pada pukul 18.45 GMT.
Indeks adalah ukuran dari dolar terhadap sekeranjang mata uang utama. Emas dan dolar biasanya bergerak berlawanan arah, yang berarti jika dolar naik maka emas berjangka akan jatuh karena emas yang diukur dengan dolar menjadi lebih mahal bagi investor.
Perak untuk pengiriman September naik 16,2 sen, atau 0,88 persen, menjadi ditutup pada 18,651 dolar AS per ounce. Platinum untuk pengiriman Oktober naik 0,7 dolar AS, atau 0,06 persen, menjadi ditutup pada 1.077,7 dolar AS per ounce. [tar]
- See more at: http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2320190/fatwa-yellen-topang-penguatan-emas-berjangka#sthash.QFXBPw2y.dpuf
Liputan6.com, New York - Bank sentral Amerika Serikat (AS) atau the Federal Reserve(the Fed) menyatakan akan kembali menaikkan suku bunga. Rencana itu semakin kuat asal juga didukung data ekonomi membaik.
Pimpinan bank sentral AS Janet Yellen menyatakan kalau pihaknya akan kembali menaikkan suku bunga semakin kuat. Sedangkan Wakil Pimpinan bank sentral AS Stanley Fischer menyarankan kalau kenaikan suku bunga dapat dilakukan pada September bila ekonomi baik-baik saja.
Yellen menuturkan banyak penciptaan lapangan kerja yang dilakukan. Pertumbuhan ekonomi akan tumbuh meski secara perlahan. "Saya percaya kenaikan suku bunga semakin kuat dalam beberapa bulan terakhir," ujar Yellen dalam pidatonya di dalam konfrensi tahunan the Fed di Jackson Hole, Wyoming, seperti dikutip dari laman Reuters, Sabtu (27/8/2016).
Yellen menuturkan, rencana kenaikan suku bunga itu dilakukan dengan mempertimbangkan data tenaga kerja optimal dan harga stabil. Selain itu juga belanja konsumen yang solid. Akan tetapi, ia mengakui kalau investasi masih melemah dan ekspor tertekan lantaran dolar AS yang menguat.
Akan tetapi, ia tidak memberikan petunjuk kapanthe Fed menaikkan suku bunga. "Dia (Yellen) hanya memberikan sinyal kalau memang kenaikan suku bunga AS selalu terbuka," ujar Interest Strategist Societe Generale Subadra Rajappa.
Sementara iu, wakil pimpinan bank sentral AS Stanley Fischer menuturkan kalau the Fed dapat segera menaikkan suku bunga bila data ekonomi baik-baik saja. Presiden Fed bagian Atlanta Dennis Lockhart juga menuturkan kalau the Fed akan kembali menaikkan suku bunga sehingga ada dua kali kenaikan suku bunga pada 2016.
marketwatch: When central bankers gather this week in Jackson Hole, Wyo., they will be consumed not with some pressing crisis in the global economy but by an existential threat to their relevance.
The threat stems from the realization that the sluggish economic growth that has prevailed since 2009 may be here to stay. If so, then so are today’s low interest rates.
Central banks set interest rates to balance investment and savings and thus keep economies fully employed and inflation stable. The interest rate that achieves that balance is called the natural rate. The fact that inflation and growth are now so sluggish despite ultra-easy monetary policy shows that the natural rate has fallen -- by 1 to 2.5 percentage points since 2007 in the U.S., Canada, Britain and the eurozone, according to a recent Fed study. Fed policy makers think the U.S. natural rate is 3%, down from 4.5% before the recession. That’s 1.5 percentage points less ammunition to counteract the next shock to the economy.
Initially, central bankers thought the drop in the natural rate was transitory as households, businesses and governments tried to pay down debt or borrow less. With time, it has become clear more deep-seated forces are at play: A slump in productivity growth has depressed the return on, and demand for, new equipment. An aging population needs fewer malls, office buildings and houses. Rising inequality has tilted more income toward the high-saving rich. Risk aversion world-wide has heightened the demand for safe government bonds.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch)—The time for another interest rate hike is approaching and a move as soon as the next meeting in September is a possibility, said New York Fed President William Dudley on Tuesday.
“We’re edging closer towards the point in time where it will be appropriate I think to raise interest rates further,” Dudley said in an interview on the Fox Business Network.
The labor market is averaging 190,000 jobs a month over the last three months and growth should accelerate in the second half of the year, the New York Fed president said.
“The labor market is getting target. We’re starting to see signs of wage gains starting to accelerate,” he said.
Dudley is always a voting member of the Fed’s policy committee and his views are closely watched because he is seen as a close ally of Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen.
Dudley said the bond market is one area where he’s concerned about a possible asset bubble.
“The one area that looks a little stretched to me is the bond market,” Dudley said.
That is due in part to what’s happening in the rest of the world, he said.
Central bank quantitative easing is creating a search for yield globally and some of that is spilling into the U.S., he said.
“The 10-year Treasury yield at 1.5% is pretty low,” given the U.S. economy close to full employment and inflation trending back to 2%, he said.
Dudley said the presidential election won’t impact the timing of the second rate hike.
“I don’t think the election would weigh on us one way or the other,” he said.
New York, Aug 12, 2016 (AFP)
European and Wall Street stocks were under pressure Friday as soft data from the US, China and the eurozone prompted mild profit-taking.
Frankfurt and Paris both dipped, though the French index remained above the key 4,500 level by a whisker.
London's FTSE index was essentially flat.
Trade in the US was also muted, with both the Dow and S&P 500 retreating from records struck Thursday. However, the tech-rich Nasdaq edged higher, scoring a second straight record.
"The stock market may be at record highs, yet it doesn't look as if too many money managers really love this stock market," said Briefing.com Patrick O'Hare.
O'Hare described the reticence as an acknowledgement that high equity valuations are the result of aggressive stimulus measures by central banks due to weak growth.
More evidence of that weakness was apparent Friday.
Retail sales in China rose 10.2 percent year-on-year in July, a sharp slowdown from the 10.6 percent increase in June and below the median forecast of a 10.5 percent rise in a Bloomberg News poll of economists.
That lackluster result was accompanied by reports on Chinese industrial output and fixed asset investment that also missed expectations.
The Chinese figures represent an "across-the-board slowdown," said Zhao Yang of Nomura.
"Overall, we think growth momentum continued to lose steam," he added.
- Sluggish growth -
Growth in the 19-nation eurozone came in at 0.3 percent, slowing from 0.6 percent in the three months to January but unchanged from the initial estimate given last month.
The data "highlight concerns about France and Italy," analysts at Capital Economics said, and "showed a strong contrast between the eurozone's best and worst performers. But the big picture was that growth across the region is slowing."
An exception was Germany, which expanded by 0.4 percent in adjusted terms between April and June, twice as much as forecast by analysts surveyed by Factset.
In the US, July retail sales cames in at $457.7 billion, the same as the previous month, suggesting a key driver of the world's largest economy had plateaued by mid-summer.
US producer prices for the same month fell 0.4 percent, another indication of sluggish activity.
Analysts said the anemic figures could quash talk of a Federal Reserve hike of interest rates.
"The consumer paused in July and, with price pressures soft, the Fed members will probably gain a few more gray hairs," said Joel Naroff of Naroff Economic Advisors.
An exception to Friday's anemic performance in equity markets was Japan's Nikkei, which gained 1.1 percent, largely due to positive momentum from Thursday's records set in the US.
However, analysts were girding for weak data from Japan, which is scheduled to report second-quarter growth figures on Monday.
Tokyo this month promised a 28-trillion yen ($246 billion) economic stimulus package, marking its latest attempt to stimulate lackluster growth.
- Key figures at around 2100 GMT -
New York - DOW: DOWN 0.2 percent at 18,576.47 (close)
New York - S&P 500: DOWN 0.1 percent at 2,184.05 (close)
New York - Nasdaq: UP 0.1 percent at 5,232.89 (close)
London - FTSE 100: UP less than 0.1 percent at 6,916.02 points (close)
Frankfurt - DAX 30: DOWN 0.3 percent at 10,713.43 (close)
Paris - CAC 40: DOWN 0.1 percent at 4,500.19 (close)
EURO STOXX 50: DOWN 0.1 percent at 3,044.94 (close)
Tokyo - Nikkei 225: UP 1.1 percent at 16,919.92 (close)
Shanghai - Composite: UP 1.6 percent at 3,050.67 (close)
Hong Kong - Hang Seng: UP 0.8 percent at 22,766.91 (close)
Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1165 from $1.1138 Thursday
Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2918 from $1.2955
Dollar/yen: DOWN at 101.14 yen from 101.95 yen
burs-jh-jmb/acb
Oleh Regina Lidwina (Chief Business Manager PT. Valbury Asia Futures Semarang)
Di luar dugaan, data tenaga kerja Amerika Serikat di luar sektor pertanian naik sebanyak 255.000 pekerja dengan ekspektasi 180.000 pada bulan lalu, setelah direvisi naik untuk kenaikan sebesar 292.000 untuk bulan Juni. Dengan data analisa perkiraan untuk bulan Juni sebesar 180.000.
Berdasarkan data tersebut, dollar menguat tajam pada hari Jumat dan meningkatkan probabilitas kenaikan tingkat suku bunga pada akhir tahun ini dari 34 persen menjadi 46 persen. Ekspektasi pertumbuhan ekonomi juga diperkirakan lebih cepat.
Sesuai dengan data tenaga kerja yang di rilis oleh Departemen Tenaga Kerja AS, terjadi survey oleh CME FedWatch dan data menunjukan bahwa Fed Fund Futures menilai sebesar 18 persen kesempatan the Fed akan kenaikan suku bunga pada pertemuan kebijakan bulan depan dibanding 9 persen pada hari Kamis lalu (4/8) dan menunjukkan hampir 47 persen kesempatan untuk pertemuan di bulan Desember.
Tiga bank yang telah di survei mengatakan bahwa ada kemungkinan the Fed akan menaikkan suku bunga AS pada pertemuan pada tanggal 20-21 September, dimana hal tersebut tidak terpikirkan oleh the Fed pada rapat mereka bulan lalu.
Berdasarkan jajak pendapat yang dilakukan oleh Reuters pada hari Jumat lalu menunjukkan bahwa Wall Street sekarang mengharapkan the Fed untuk menaikkan suku bunga mereka pada tahun ini. Hal tersebut pun di dukung oleh 13 dealer treasury utama AS yang tersangkut bisnis secara langsung dengan the Fed. Mereka memasang target 25 persentase poin pada akhir tahun ini.
Perdagangan forex pada akhir pekan kemarin (5/8) ditutup prima oleh dollar AS dan mencapai puncak levelnya dalam sepekan.
Seperti yang telah diketahui bersama bahwa alat untuk menaikan suku bunga adalah stabilnya nilai inflasi di atas level 2 persen dan angka NFP di atas 200.000, maka data NFP AS menjadi salah satu kekuatan yang secara pasti akan dipakai oleh the Fed dalam menjalankan aksinya.
Bagaimana kelanjutan keputusan kenaikkan suku bunga the Fed tahun ini, menurut saya kita harus menantikan data tenaga kerja AS yang stabil dan membaiknya nilai inflasi serta lancarnya pemilihan President AS pada tanggal 8 November mendatang.
SINGAPURA kontan. Inggris pada Kamis (23/6) kemarin sudah memutuskan bahwa mereka memilih untuk hengkang dari keanggotaan Uni Eropa.
Ekonom Inggris Morgan Stanley, Jacob Nell, melihat keputusan Brexit akan menyebabkan ketidakstabilan politik dan ekonomi. Kondisi ini akan menyebabkan poundsterling melemah, tingkat inflasi melonjak, dan perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi Inggris.
Hasil referendum ini juga dipastikan akan memantik resesi global. Tim riset Morgan Stanley memprediksi, pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia akan melambat ke 3,1% di 2017 dalam skenario Brexit dengan "tingkat stress sedang". Prediksi sebelumnya adalah pertumbuhan sebesar 3,4%.
Bagaimana dampaknya terhadap pasar saham Asia?
Morgan Stanley memprediksi, indeks Topix akan mengalami tingkat volatilitas yang lebih tinggi dibandingkan bursa emerging dan indeks China.
Hari ini, nilai tukar yen sudah menembus melampaui 100 versus dollar AS pagi tadi. Menurut tim riset Morgan, penguatan setiap 1 yen Jepang, akan memukul indeks Topix sekitar 65 basis poin.
Selain itu, tim riset mata uang asing Morgan Stanley menargetkan nilai tukar USD/JPY pada akhir tahun akan berada di kisaran 90-95 sebagai dampak dari peristiwa ini.
"Meski demikian, kami juga melihat, besarnya kemungkinan intervensi oleh bank sentral dunia, baik secara unilateral maupun multilateral," kata Morgan.
Di antara pasar emerging, Morgan merekomendasikan India dan Korea. Selain itu, ada juga beberapa negara lainnya seperti Australia, Afrika Selatan, dan Singapura.
the guardian : US manufacturing growth accelerates
More positive news on the US economy... this time from the manufacturing sector.
The headline index on Markit’s “flash” manufacturing PMI survey rose to a three-month of high of 51.4 in June, from 50.7 in May (where anything above 50 indicates expansion). Growth in exports was the main driver of growth.
It was better than expected, with economists forecasting 50.8 for the headline index combing output, new orders and employment.
Output in the sector grew modestly, and new business increased at an accelerated rate, boosted by the fastest pace in export sales since September 2014.
US jobless claims lower than expected
Away from the markets, US jobless claims fell more sharply than expected last week according to figures from the Labor Department.
The number of new claims for unemployment benefits fell to 259,000 in the week ending 18 June, from 277,000 a week earlier. It was the biggest drop since February and close to a 43-year low touched in March.
Economists polled by Reuters were expecting a smaller drop to 270,000.
Interest rates will never be normal again, because the US economy is never going to get healthy.
That’s me talking, not some Wall Street mouthpiece with an agenda. And I’m not feeling this way just because it was hot and humid in the office while I was typing this and my shorts were riding up.
I’ve been telling you for years that the US economy isn’t just weak, it is broken — damaged beyond repair if the fixers continue to employ the usual tools.
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve chickened out once again. For the umpteenth time, it didn’t raise interest rates, because the US economy isn’t strong enough to support higher borrowing costs.
The only rate hike in the past decade came last December, and it was a very modest one. The economy, as you know, began to sink almost immediately afterward — or at least that’s what we learned after revisions to data corrected all the erroneous original reports.
The Fed’s decision to sit on its hands and do nothing was pretty much locked in when the employment report for May came in much weaker than expected.
And if you’ve followed my analysis of that report these past couple of weeks, you already know that when all the razzmatazz of adjustments for the seasons and newly “born” companies is eliminated, the job market probably actually contracted last month.
The Fed acknowledged the weaker job market Wednesday after a two-day policy meeting. But it’s still seeing the bright side of things, as the Fed’s “cheerwoman,” Janet Yellen, has mistakenly done for years.
The economy, she said, is seeing improvement right now. What she didn’t mentioned is, when you average out the first quarter of 2016 with the likely second-quarter growth, you still have nothing to cheer about. It’s the same old story — told repeatedly for the past nine years.
Yellen also hauled out her all-time favorite excuses for the current mess, including “global vulnerabilities.” She left you to fill in your own blanks: Britain’s possible exit from the European Union (Brexit, as it is cleverly called); the world’s need for fewer American goods because of the weak global economy; and, of course, the declining price of oil over the past year, which is good for almost everyone except those companies and countries in the energy business.
There will now probably be only one rate hike this year, a point that should have been obvious to anyone who owns a calendar and knows anything about presidential politics.
The Fed isn’t going to raise rates very close to the November election and risk having a meltdown in the stock market that will hand the Presidency to Yellen-hater Donald Trump.
The Fed meets in July, September, November and December. Unless the economy suddenly booms, December is the only likely time for a rate hike. And if Trump wins, the Fed will be too afraid to even make the move then.
The economy has been growing at a historically subpar rate since the Great Recession of 2007 to 2009, but why?
And it’s really one of those Catch 22 situations. If the Fed does raise rates, it could easily weaken the economy. But it needs to raise rates if it wants to improve the economy.
How’s that? One of the big problems today is that extraordinarily low rates have essentially been a stealth tax on savers. People with money in the bank are receiving little or no return on their investments.
And while Yellen keeps harping on the fact that incomes are finally rising, the loss of interest income is causing a major part of the US population to cut back.
The beneficiaries of low rates, of course, have been borrowers and people willing to risk their assets in the stock market. But stocks haven’t been doing well lately either, so even those with enough money to take a risk in the market aren’t flush.
Plus, stock market wealth is different from interest wealth. It’s easy to go to the bank and withdraw money to make a purchase. But when was the last time someone cashed in IBM stock — paying capital gains tax — to buy a refrigerator?
So the Fed is at a policy stalemate: a “damned if it does, damned if it doesn’t” situation.
Take away the noise, and the economy has basically been moving forward in low gear for years. Economic growth below 2 percent annually is what we’ve been cursed with, and that is the way things will continue to go.
In fact, Yellen on Wednesday predicted 2 percent growth for the next two years. And she did it without even apologizing for such a pathetic expansion, because it has become the new normal.
And, remember, that 2 percent growth could be the peak from which the next recession will be launched.
And if Yellen quit right now — something I’d recommend — the next person wouldn’t be in a much better position to fix things. So the economy isn’t only being mishandled, it is also broken.
How do you fix it? I’ll say it again: Change the rules on retirement plans so that people can use some of the wealth locked up in those accounts — and mostly in the stock market — to help resurrect the economy.
Until Washington makes this change, the economy isn’t going anywhere
ID: Beige Book, laporan yang baru dirilis The Federal Reserve System atau The Fed menyatakan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi Amerika Serikat lumayan dengan outlook yang optimistik. Sangat mungkin bank sentral AS yang dipimpin Janet Yellen akan menaikkan tingkat suku bunga (Fed Funds Rate/FFR), paling tidak dalam dua bulan ke depan.
Pertumbuhan konsumsi riil di AS pada tahun 2016 ini masih lebih rendah dari pertumbuhan tahun 2015, apalagi jika dibandingkan dengan tahun 2006, kondisinya masih belum pulih. Penjualan mobil juga menurun, di mana penjualan General Motor turun 18%, sedangkan VW turun 17%. Bubble sektor perumahan juga masih belum akan terjadi.
Sebetulnya agak sulit bagi Yellen untuk menaikkan tingkat suku bunga Bank Sentral AS, mengingat inflasi juga masih di bawah target. Sementara itu, pertemuan Organisasi Negara-negara Pengekspor Minyak Bumi (OPEC) juga gagal mendapatkan kata sepakat untuk mengerek harga minyak ke atas. Kalau harga minyak terus naik, maka pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia akan semakin melemah.
Beruntung jika OPEC terus berorientasi menaikkan pangsa pasar ketimbang harga minyak. Sungguh bodoh jika Indonesia mau kembali menjadi anggota OPEC karena kepentingan OPEC berbeda dengan kepentingan Indonesia.
Situasi bertambah muram karena program moneter di Uni Eropa juga belum berhasil, termasuk juga dampak kebijakan ekonomi Perdana Menteri Jepang Shinzo Abe (Abenomics). Abenomics hanya berhasil menaikkan tingkat fertilitas di Jepang. Dunia dihantui oleh kondisi deflasi. Harus ada penggerak anti-deflasi.
Seperti yang dinyatakan oleh Organisasi untuk Kerja Sama dan Pembangunan Ekonomi (OECD) bahwa satu-satunya senjata anti-deflasi adalah pengeluaran pemerintah, yang luput dilakukan oleh negara-negara maju. Apalagi, baru-baru ini RRC juga mengalami syok dalam pasar future sahamnya karena penurunan credit rating. Artinya, country risk RRC akan meningkat karena pasar hedging menjadi semakin tidak likuid. Belum lagi pertumbuhan ekonomi RRC yang terus menurun, termasuk cadangan devisanya.
Dengan kondisi yang seperti ini seharusnya tingkat suku bunga Fed tidak perlu dinaikkan. Rasanya penaikan tingkat suku bunga Bank Sentral AS justru akan menjadi beban ekonomi bagi perekonomian dunia dan Amerika Serikat sendiri.
Jika tingkat suku bunga Fed dinaikkan, maka dipastikan tekanan terhadap perekonomin RRC akan semakin besar sehingga akan memaksa RRC untuk melakukan devaluasi mata uangnya. Padahal, dalam forum dialog pemimpin tujuh negara-negara industri maju yang berpengaruh pada perekonomian dunia (G7) yang baru lalu, direkomendasikan peningkatan pertumbuhan ekonomi tidak bisa dilakukan dengan depresiasi mata uang.
Untuk mengalihkan isu melemahnya perekonomian RRC, pemerintah RRC menarik perhatian rakyatnya dengan aksi nasionalisme, seperti terus meneror negara-negara yang memiliki konflik perbatasan dengan RRC. Kondisi ini akan memaksa negaranegara Asean untuk meningkatkan pengeluaran untuk pertahanan keamanannya. Padahal, dana yang ada seharusnya dapat digunakan untuk membangun perekonomian.
Dengan kondisi yang sepertinya kurang menguntungkan saat ini, toh negara seperti Vietnam masih mampu menjadi negara dengan tingkat pertumbuhan ekonomi nomor dua di dunia. Vietnam hanya kalah dari India. Ekonomi India dulunya banyak tergantung dari pertanian, namun sekarang ini hanya menyumbang kurang dari 25% dari PDB. Industri penting lainnya adalah pertambangan, petroleum, pengasahan berlian, film, tekstil, teknologi informasi, dan kerajinan tangan.
Kebanyakan daerah industri India berpusat di kota-kota utamanya. Tahun-tahun belakangan ini, India telah muncul sebagai salah satu pemain terbesar dalam perangkat lunak, dan business processoutsourcing. Banyak industri skala kecil yang menyediakan lapangan kerja yang stabil bagi penduduk di kota kecil, dan perdesaan.
Di Vietnam, sektor manufaktur, teknologi informasi dan industry teknologi canggih membentuk bagian besar perekonomian dan tumbuh dengan cepat daripada ekonomi nasional. Vietnam secara relatif adalah pemain baru dalam bisnis perminyakan, tetapi sekarang Vietnam dengan cepat menjelma menjadi produsen minyak terbesar ketiga di Asia Tenggara dengan nilai produksi 400.000 barel per hari.
Vietnam adalah salah satu Negara di Asia yang memiliki kebijakan ekonomi paling terbuka; neraca perdagangan mencapai sekitar 160% dari produk domestik bruto, lebih dari dua kali rasio yang dimiliki Tiongkok dan lebih dari empat kali rasio India.
Sebagai hasil dari langkah-langkah reformasi tanah (land reform), Vietnam sekarang adalah produsen kacang cashewterbesar dengan pangsa sepertiga dari kebutuhan dunia dan eksportir beras kedua terbesar di dunia setelah Thailand. Indonesia harus banyak belajar dari kedua negara ini yang mampu menghasilkan pertumbuhan ekonomi tinggi ketika perekonomian RRC semakin goyah.
Secara tren, Vietnam dan India juga memperlihatkan pertumbuhan ekonomi yang positif. Kedua negara ini diuntungkan oleh naik atau tidak naiknya tingkat suku bunga The Fed. Tidaklah mengherankan jika Presiden Amerika Serikat Barack Obama mengunjungi kedua Negara ini. Obama sadar bahwa kedua negara ini memiliki kemampuan perekonomian yang bebas dari pengaruh maju atau mundurnya perekonomian RRC.
Seyogyanya, Presiden Jokowi juga meniru Obama dalam rangka belajar dan melakukan kerja sama yang lebih erat dengan India dan Vietnam. Bukan hanya itu, duta besar Indonesia di Vietnam dan India haruslah mereka yang memiliki kemampuan pengembangan kerja sama ekonomi sebagai prioritas utama. Tanpa kemampuan itu maka Indonesia tidak akan mampu menciptakan pembangunan bilateral yang saling melengkapi dengan kedua negara tersebut. Bukan hanya itu, tim ekonomi pemerintah Indonesia juga harus belajar dari India dan Vietnam agar Indonesia selamat dari kebijakan tingkat suku bunga The Fed!
Achmad Deni Daruri, President Director Center forBanking Crisis
marketwatch: Consumers confidence fell in May to the lowest level since late 2015 as Americans turned slightly more pessimistic about overall business conditions and the job market, a survey shows.
The consumer confidence index dropped to 92.6 from a revised 94.7 in April, the nonprofit Conference Board said Tuesday. That’s the lowest level since November and well below the postrecession high of 103.8 set in early 2015.
Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected the index to increase.
Although Americans continue to be cautious about the economy almost seven years into a recovery, their spending habits show that they are somewhat more upbeat than the confidence report suggests. In April, for example, consumer spending rose at the fastest rate since 2009.
One source of concern might be rising gas prices. Fueling up is still cheap, but not as cheap as it was several months ago. The rate of hiring across the U.S. also appears to have slowed a bit.
As a result, another Conference Board index that takes a look at what consumers think about the economy right now slid from 117.1 to 112.9.
An index that measures future expectations, meanwhile, declined to 79 from 79.7. That’s the weakest reading in almost two and half years.
“Consumers remain cautious about the outlook for business and labor market conditions. Thus, they continue to expect little change in economic activity in the months ahead,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at board.
JAKARTA bisnis.com: Indeks dolar Amerika Serikat melanjutkan penguatannya pada awal perdagangan pagi ini, Jumat (10/6/2016), setelah berhasil reboundpada penutupan perdagangan kemarin. Indeks yang mengukur pergerakan kurs dolar AS terhadap sejumlah mata uang utama tersebut bergerak menguat sebesar 0,17% atau 0,156 poin ke level 94,109 pada pukul 06.54 WIB, setelah dibuka dengan kenaikan sebesar 0,15% ke level 94,093. Pada perdagangan kemarin (9/6/2016), indeks dolar AS akhirnya ditutup dengan penguatan sebesar 0,39% atau 0,363 poin ke level 93,953, meski dibuka di zona merah. Seperti dilansir Reuters hari ini, rebound dolar AS didukung oleh adanya penurunan tak terduga pada laporan data pengangguran domestik serta kenaikan penjualan wholesale yang melampaui ekspektasi pada April 2016. Hal ini menurunkan kekhawatiran akan perlambatan pertumbuhan ekonomi AS pada kuartal kedua. Para analis berharap pergerakan dolar AS masih akan bertahan di kisaran sempit menjelang pertemuan bank sentral AS Federal Reserve minggu depan. Menurut mereka, the Fed kemungkinan akan menahan diri dari penaikan suku bunga mengingat potensi kekacauan pasar apabila referendum Inggris pada tanggal 23 Juni menghasilkan keputusan untuk hengkang dari Uni Eropa. â€Å“The Fed tidak akan melakukan apapun minggu depan. Mereka akan menanti dan mengumpulkan lebih banyak data setelah referendum Brexit,†kata Peter Ng, senior currency trader dengan Silicon Valley Bank di California.  Posisi indeks dolar AS 10 Juni 94,109 (+0,17%) 9 Juni 93,953 (+0,39%) 8 Juni 2016 93,590 (-0,25%)
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA -- Sejumlah presiden regional Federal Reserve menghimbau para pelaku pasar di industri keuangan untuk mengantisipasi dampak dari rencana kenaikan Fed Rate yang kian mendekati kenyataan.
Dilansir dari Bloomberg, Sabtu (28/5/2016), Presiden Regional Boston, Eric Rosengren dan Presiden Regional San Frascisco, John Williams mendesak para pelaku pasar untuk mengambil langkah yang lebih serius untuk mengantisipasi kemungkinan penaikan Fed Rate.
Yellen memang tidak memberikan sinyal yang jelas terkait dengan waktu penaikan Fed Rate. Namun, kemungkinan penaikan dilakukan pada Juni 2016 tercermin dari kenaikan federal funds futures contracts menjadi 34% dari 28% pada Jumat lalu.
Gubernur Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen sebelumnya menyatakan penaikan Fed Rate mungkin dilakukan dalam satu hingga dua bulan ke depan menyusul pemulihan ekonomi Amerika Serikat. Dia mengatakan, pasar tenaga kerja telah benar-benar membaik dalam beberapa tahun terakhir sejak angka pengangguran tertinggi tercatat 10% pada 2009 lalu.
Pada Mei 2016, tingkat pengangguran turun menjadi 4,9% dari sebelumnya 5%. Menurut Yellen, sebagian besar orang kini tidak lagi bekerja paruh waktu dan memilih bekerja penuh sesuai jam kerja.
Pernyataan Yellen ini juga telah mengikis keraguan pada pelaku pasar terhadap rencana penaikan Fed Rate. Roberto Perlu, partner di Cornerstone Macro LLC, mengatakan kendati belum ada pernyataan resmi, para investor kini tak lagi meragukan rencana penaikan Fed Rate akan berlangsung dalam waktu dekat. "Keraguan itu telah hilang," ujarnya.
marketwatch: Prompted if she wants to move markets so traders can go to the Hamptons — Yellen says she’ll make a few sentences. “It’s appropriate for the Fed to gradually and cautiously increase our overnight interest rate over time,” Yellen says, and probably in the coming months such a move would be appropriate. Yellen says she expects inflation to move back up to 2% objective.
Yellen giving a review of the U.S. economy.
Yellen says unemployment rate is close to its goal, but she says there’s not much improvement in wage growth, or in number of part timers who want full time work.
Productivity growth is “miserable,” Yellen says. “That’s a serious and negative development,” she said. Fed. Gov. Powell on Thursday discussed the anemic productivity numbers at length.
time.com:
The Federal Reserve chief pointed to the improving economy.
The U.S. Federal Reserve should raise interest rates “in the coming months” if economic growth picks up as expected and jobs continue to be generated, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Friday.
“The economy is continuing to improve … growth looks to be picking up,” Yellen said in remarks in Boston. “If that continues and if the labor market continues to improve, and I expect those things to occur … in the coming months such a move would be appropriate.”
JAKARTA kontan. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) bergerak liar di sepanjang sesi I hari ini (27/5). Berdasarkan data RTI, pada pukul 11.30 WIB, indeks mencatatkan kenaikan 0,17% menjadi 4.792,52.
Ada 139 saham yang berhasil menyelamatkan IHSG. Sementara, jumlah saham yang turun sebanyak 96 saham dan 105 saham lainnya diam di tempat.
Volume transaksi siang ini melibatkan 1,992 miliar saham dengan nilai transaksi Rp 1,622 triliun.
Sementara itu, secara sektoral, ada delapan sektor yang menghijau. Adapun tiga sektor dengan kenaikan terbesar di antaranya: sektor industri lain-lain yang naik 1,06%, sektor industri dasar naik 0,92%, dan sektor manufaktur naik 0,43%.
Saham-saham indeks LQ 45 yang menghuni posisi top gainers yakni: PT AKR Corporindo Tbk (AKRA) naik 3,36% menjadi Rp 6.150, PT Media Nusantara Citra Tbk (MNCN) naik 3,29% menjadi Rp 2.200, dan PT Semen Indonesia Tbk (SMGR) naik 2,55% menjadi Rp 9.050.
Sedangkan posisi top losers indeks LQ 45 siang ini adalah: PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk (PGAS) turun 1,22% menjadi Rp 2.430, PT Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO) turun 1,17% menjadi Rp 1.685, dan PT Pakuwon Jati Tbk (PWON) turun 0,93% menjadi Rp 530.
Bursa emerging naik tipis
Pergerakan positif terbatas juga dialami indeks emerging market. Data Bloomberg menunjukkan, pada pukul 10.42 waktu Hong Kong, indeks MSCI Emerging Market naik 0,1% menjadi 803,84. Kenaikan hari ini sudah memasuki hari ketiga.
Sejak 20 Mei lalu, indeks emerging sudah melaju sebesar 2,4%.
Kenaikan terbatas bursa emerging disinyalir seiring aksi wait and see investor mengenai pidato Pimpinan The Federal Reserve Janet Yellen pada hari ini pasca penutupan pasar Asia.
Pelaku pasar sangat menanti apa yang diucapkan Yellen demi mencari petunjuk mengenai arah kebijakan yang akan diambil bank sentral AS ke depannya.
reuters: The U.S. Federal Reserve on Thursday continued to lay the groundwork for an interest rate increase in the next two months, with a senior policymaker saying the economy will likely be ready for such a move "fairly soon."
Federal Reserve Governor Jerome Powell, a voting member of the U.S. central bank's rate-setting committee, said in a speech in Washington that he felt the economy was on a "solid footing" and within reach of the Fed's inflation and employment goals.
But he added that the uncertainty surrounding Britain's June 23 referendum on whether to leave the European Union was an argument in favor of the Fed exercising "caution" as it ponders whether to raise rates at its June 14-15 policy meeting.
The Fed will hold another policy meeting on July 26-27.
Powell, however, struck an overall positive tone about the U.S. economy in an appearance at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, becoming the latest Fed policymaker in recent days to say it may be time to notch rates higher.
The Fed's Washington-based Board of Governors has a decisive role in setting monetary policy, and its members have a permanent vote on the committee that sets the central bank's key federal funds rate.
Powell said he felt that data showing continued job creation and evidence of rising wages were a more important signal about the economy's direction than recent weakness in consumer spending and business investment.
"There are good reasons to think that underlying growth is stronger than these recent readings suggest," Powell said. "If incoming data support these expectations, I would see it as appropriate to continue to gradually raise the federal funds rate."
WANING GLOBAL RISKS
Powell spoke a day before a scheduled public appearance by Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Yellen's remarks on Friday as well as those in a speech in early June will be closely parsed for clues about the Fed's monetary policy stance going into the June meeting.
After increasing rates in December for the first time in a decade, the Fed has watched tentatively as global markets seesawed and weak growth in China, Japan and Europe threatened to pull the U.S. recovery off track.
But the Fed now regards those risks as "waning," and the minutes from its April policy meeting showed several policymakers keying in on a possible June rate increase.
That has shifted market expectations that had been discounting higher rates until later in the year, with trading in federal funds futures on Thursday implying a 26 percent chance of an increase next month and 56 percent in July.
David Stockton, the Fed's former research director, said on Thursday he felt the only thing holding the central bank back from raising rates in June was the "Brexit" vote.
Though Fed policymakers, including Powell on Thursday, have said they see little broad systemic risk in a British departure from the EU, they still regard it as an international risk at a time when the U.S. economy has been weighed down by poor global demand and a rising dollar.
"Brexit is likely to stay their hand" in June, Stockton said, but "they are on track" for July.
(Reporting by Howard Schneider and Linday Dunsmuir; Editing by Paul Simao)
marketwatcH: Not surprisingly, Shepherdson takes the view the central bank should raise rates as soon as possible.
“We still think Brexit risk is a serious barrier to June, and September is our base case. But July is possible, if [Fed chief Janet] Yellen and her colleagues can overcome their fear of hiking into thin summer markets, at a meeting with no new forecasts and no scheduled press conference.”
bloomberg: Asian stocks rose, with the regional equities benchmark gauge rebounding from a seven-week low, after a surge in U.S. home sales fueled speculation the world’s biggest economy can withstand higher interest rates.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.8 percent to 125.95 as of 9:03 a.m. in Tokyo after closing on Tuesday at the lowest level since April 6. Japan’s Topix index added 1.6 percent as the yen traded at 110.15 per dollar after falling 0.7 percent Tuesday. A report showed U.S. new-home sales in April surged to the highest level in more than eight years. Odds for a Federal Reserve rate increase in June rose to 34 percent from 4 percent last Monday, with traders now expecting a better-than-even chance of an increase by July.
“Strong U.S. new home sales have added credence to the Fed’s claims that the U.S. economy may be strong enough for another rate hike in June or July,” said Angus Nicholson, Melbourne-based market analyst at IG Ltd. “Japanese equities in particular are relishing the strong U.S. dollar.”
May is poised to be the worst month since January for the Asia Pacific index in what’s been a wild ride for investors this year. The regional gauge began 2016 with a 14 percent slump through a February low on concern a devaluation of the Chinese yuan would curb global growth and amid prospects for higher U.S. borrowing costs. It then rallied almost 20 percent through this year’s peak in April before retreating again. The measure has fallen 4.8 percent this month through Tuesday.
Mounting conviction that the Fed will boost borrowing costs some time in the next two months propelled the greenback higher against the yen, boosting shares at Japanese exporters. Honda Motor Co. added 2.1 percent and Toyota Motor Corp. increased 1.9 percent. Toyota said it’s investing in Uber Technologies Inc. as automakers race to align themselves with the fast-growing, ride-hailing industry. The companies will also work together on offering auto leases to Uber drivers.
Sony Corp. surged 5.3 percent as investors ignored a weak profit forecast, looking instead to the company’s long-term prospects in entertainment and sensors needed for driverless cars. Net income will probably decline 46 percent in the 12 months ending March 2017 due to costs for repairs after the Kyushu earthquake, the company said.
Malaysian Troubles
Traders in Malaysia will be watching moves in the ringgit as NAB strategist Julian Wee said the country’s currency could weaken the fastest among its Asian peers on potential political instability in the country from the 1MDB scandal. Global probes related to the troubled Malaysian state fund have enmeshed the biggest casualty to date: a 143-year-old Swiss bank, BSI SA.
Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index advanced 0.6 percent and New Zealand’s S&P/NZX 50 Index gained 0.4 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.8 percent.
Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 1 percent and contracts on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index climbed 1.1 percent.
Futures on the S&P 500 climbed 0.1 percent after the underlying gauge added 1.4 percent on Tuesday, the most since March 11. Investors will scrutinize comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen later this week, as well as a the monthly government jobs report due June 3. Crude oil futures advanced a second day amid speculation U.S. stockpiles dropped last week.
Kurs dolar AS diperdagangkan bervariasi terhadap mata uang utama lainnya pada Senin (Selasa pagi WIB), karena beberapa pejabat Federal Reserve berbicara secara terbuka tentang waktu kenaikan suku bunga lebih lanjut. Presiden Fed San Francisco John Williams mengatakan pada Senin bahwa kenaikan suku bunga dua sampai tiga kali tahun ini adalah wajar dan inflasi negara itu berada di jalur untuk mencapai target Fed dua persen pada tahun depan atau dua tahun berikutnya. Presiden Fed St Louis James Bullard pada Senin menggaungkan bahwa pasar tenaga kerja yang relatif ketat di Amerika Serikat dapat menempatkan tekanan pada inflasi, mendukung untuk kasus kenaikan suku bunga yang lebih tinggi. Kata-kata para pembuat kebijakan datang setelah rilis risalah "hawkish" dari pertemuan bank sentral April pada Rabu lalu. Sebagian besar pejabat terbuka untuk kenaikan suku bunga pada Juni, jika perekonomian terus membaik, kata risalah tersebut. Pada akhir perdagangan New York, euro naik menjadi 1,1223 dolar dari 1,1219 dolar pada sesi sebelumnya, dan pound Inggris turun menjadi 1,4482 dolar dari 1,4506 dolar. Dolar Australia turun ke 0,7224 dolar dari 0,7225 dolar. Dolar dibeli 109,20 yen Jepang, lebih rendah dari 110,23 yen pada sesi sebelumnya. Dolar turun ke 0,9894 franc Swiss dari 0,9908 franc Swiss, dan beringsut naik ke 1,3133 dolar Kanada dari 1,3129 dolar Kanada. http://economy.okezone.com/read/2016/05/24/278/1396158/dolar-as-bervariasi-di-tengah-komentar-pejabat-the-fed Sumber : OKEZONE.COM
marketwatch: Don’t you love it when a plan comes together? Well, Wall Street isn’t so enamored of the Federal Reserve’s scheme to hike interest rates in June, maybe.
That turns Thursday’s spotlight on two voters on the Fed’s rate-setting board — Vice Chair Stanley Fischer and New York Fed President William Dudley — who will speak as trading gets under way.
Of course, the Fed says its decision will depend on “incoming data” on the labor market, inflation and the like. But the minutes support what two other Fed officials essentially said this week: Buckle up for a possible move at the June 14-15 meeting.
Still, along with having data on the Fed’s side, head honcho Janet Yellen would probably like the markets onside, too.
As blogger Macro Man points out, policy makers still have work to do on that front — and unconvinced markets could hold them back. More in our call of the day.
Sure, China’s exchange-rate moves and next month’s Brexit vote are on the Fed’s radar. But don’t forget the Bank of Japan’s June 16 policy meeting — “another major global risk event,” according to analysts at Western Union Business Solutions. Watch out for gossip ahead of the G-7 meeting that kicks off in Japan on Friday, given that pesky yen volatility.
The United States issued a fresh warning to Japan against intervening in currency markets on Saturday as the two countries' differences over foreign exchange overshadowed a Group of 7 finance leaders' gathering in the Asian nation.
Japan and the United States are at logger-heads over currency policy with Washington saying Tokyo has no justification to intervene in the market to stem yen gains, given the currency's moves remain "orderly".
The rift was on full show at the G7 finance leaders' meeting in Sendai, northeastern Japan, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew saying he did not consider current yen moves as "disorderly" after a bilateral meeting with his Japanese counterpart.
"It's important that the G7 has an agreement not only to refrain from competitive devaluations, but to communicate so that we don't surprise each other," Lew told reporters on Saturday. "It's a pretty high bar to have disorderly (currency) conditions.
Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said there was no "heated debate" on the yen with Lew, and that it was natural for countries to have differences in how they see exchange-rate moves. But the meeting with Lew did not stop him from issuing verbal warnings to markets against pushing up the yen too much.
"I told (Lew) that recent currency moves were one-sided and speculative," Aso said in a news conference on Saturday, adding that the yen's gains in the past few weeks have been disorderly.
While Aso said his G7 counterparts reaffirmed the importance of exchange-rate stability, Japan received no public endorsements from other G7 members for intervention to contain "one-sided" yen rises.
"There is a consensus that monetary policy is well-adapted and there are no big discrepancies in currencies, so there is no need to intervene," French Finance Minister Michel Sapin told reporters after the two-day G7 gathering concluded on Saturday.
'GO-YOUR-OWN-WAY' AGREEMENT ON POLICY
As years of aggressive money printing stretch the limits of monetary policy, the G7 policy response to anaemic inflation and subdued growth has become increasingly splintered.
G7 leaders called for a mix of monetary, fiscal and structural policies to boost demand but left it to each country to decide its own policy priorities - dashing Japan's calls for more aggressive joint fiscal action.
Germany has shown no signs of responding to calls from Japan and the United States to boost fiscal spending.
"The most important are structural reforms... there are more and more (in the G7) recognizing that structural reforms are crucial," German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said at a briefing in Sendai.
Lew also urged Japan to keep fiscal policy loose, warning that proceeding with a scheduled sales tax hike next year could be damaging to its economy unless it was mitigated by additional fiscal spending.
"Obviously Japan has to make its own judgment on the course to take. But the critical consideration has to be not to put drag on the economy," Lew said on Saturday.
While Aso has publicly warned of intervention after the yen's recent rise to 18-month highs, some economic policymakers have signaled that they are not too worried the yen will derail a fragile economic recovery.
(Additional reporting by Gernot Heller, Stanley White, Sumio Ito and Takashi Umekawa; Editing by Sam Holmes)
New York, May 17, 2016 (AFP)
Fresh speculation that the Federal Reserve could act sooner to raise interest rates hardly moved the dollar Tuesday even as short-term bond yields surged.
There was little motion in the market despite stronger US economic data and relatively bullish commentary from two Federal Reserve policymakers.
The dollar was barely changed against the euro at $1.1313, and against the yen at 109.13 yen.
After US consumer inflation data came in stronger than expected for April, and housing construction data showed a pickup, the two Fed officials said they could see two to three rate hikes this year, starting as early as June.
Together they sparked talk that market players were wrong in expecting only one small quarter-point increase would be decided by year-end.
San Francisco Fed chief John Williams said he was confident about the economy and that the pace of growth made two to three increases in 2016 appropriate, beginning as soon as the Fed's June 14-15 policy meeting.
More cautious about the June meeting, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said it was too early to draw a firm conclusion about second-quarter economic data.
"I am at this stage inconclusive about how I am going to be thinking about June, but I wouldn't take it off the table," he said.
2100 GMT Tuesday Monday
EUR/USD 1.1313 1.1318
EUR/JPY 123.46 123.43
EUR/CHF 1.1093 1.1066
EUR/GBP 0.7822 0.7860
USD/JPY 109.13 109.06
USD/CHF 0.9805 0.9778
GBP/USD 1.4463 1.4399
New York, May 13, 2016 (AFP)
Wall Street stocks finished a volatile day sharply lower Friday as strong US retail sales data rekindled talk that the Federal Reserve could more quickly lift interest rates.
But European stocks posted solid gains following good German growth data as investors brushed off a warning from the IMF on a potential British exit from the European Union.
US consumers came back to stores in April, spending more than expected to reverse a worrisome stall in the first quarter of the year, Commerce Department data showed.
Retail sales, including food services, jumped 1.3 percent from March, to $453.4 billion, and were up 3.0 percent from a year ago. Analysts had expected a 0.8 percent rebound from March.
But the downside of the better data was the somewhat higher possibility that the Federal Reserve could lift interest rates in June, said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial.
"We have to consider at least the possibility" of a rate hike next month, he said, adding that such an outcome is still highly unlikely.
The S&P 500 finished the day down 0.9 percent.
Frankfurt stocks won 0.9 percent as data showed that the German economy grew by a better-than-expected 0.7 percent in the first quarter of this year.
Paris advanced by 0.6 percent in value, aided also by separate figures showing the 19-member eurozone economy grew 0.5 percent in the same period.
London also managed a gain of 0.6 percent despite poor British construction data and after the International Monetary Fund warned again of "significant downside risks" if British voters approve a EU exit in a June 23 referendum.
IMF chief Christine Lagarde, unveiling the global lender's latest health check on the British economy just six weeks before the referendum, added that Brexit could push the country into recession.
The dollar climbed 0.6 percent on the euro and the pound as the strong US retail sales data also reverberated through the foreign exchange market, raising speculation about a rate hike this year from the Fed's policy arm, the Federal Open Market Committee.
"This data is not enough to convince the FOMC of a faster pace of real GDP growth this quarter," said PNC Bank chief economist Stuart Hoffman.
Nevertheless, he said, in the June FOMC meeting it will be used by the hawks among the policymakers to try to pull the Fed off the dovish rate stance it has held in recent meetings.
Oil prices fell, with analysts saying traders booked profits from the previous day's strong rally ahead of the weekend amid general hope that the oversupply is easing.
- Key figures around 2100 GMT -
New York - Dow: DOWN 1.1 percent at 17,535.32 (close)
New York - S&P 500: DOWN 0.9 percent at 2,046.61 (close)
New York - Nasdaq: DOWN 0.4 percent at 4,717.68 (close)
London - FTSE 100: UP 0.6 percent at 6,138.50 (close)
Frankfurt - DAX 30: UP 0.9 percent at 9,952.90 (close)
Paris - CAC 40: UP 0.6 percent at 4,319.99 (close)
EURO STOXX 50: UP 0.7 percent at 2,956.63 (close)
Tokyo: Nikkei 225: DOWN 1.4 percent at 16,412.21 (close)
Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.3 percent at 2,827.11 (close)
Hong Kong - Hang Seng: DOWN 1.0 percent at 19,719.29 (close)
Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1309 from $1.1377 Thursday
Dollar/yen: UP at 108.63 yen from 109.00 yen
burs-jmb/vs
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA - Sejumlah analis memprediksi harga logam mulia 2016 sangat bergantung kepada langkah Bank Sentral AS, Federal Reserve, dalam mempertahankan atau menaikkan suku bunga.
Natixis Commodities Report menyampaikan sepanjang tahun ini harga emas akan sangat bergantung pada keputusan The Fed dalam menaikkan suku bunga. Dengan bunga yang lebith tinggi, maka biaya pembelian logam mulia bakal meningkat.
Pada beberapa kesempatan The Fed menyatakan keputusan pengerekan FFR bergantung pada ekonomi global. Meskipun beberapa analis percaya ada peluang kenaikan suku bunga pada Juni, fakta data pekerja atau non-farm payroll AS yang anjlok ke 160.000 dari ekspektasi 200.000 mementahkan kemungkinan tersebut.
"Selain itu, referendum keputusan Brexit (keluarnya Inggris dari Uni Eropa) akan berlangsung bulan depan, sehingga kami meragukan Fed Rate naik berdekatan dengan momen tersebut," papar laporan yang dikutip Bisnis.com, Kamis (12/5/2016).
Natixis memperkirakan rerata harga emas pada 2016 ialah US$1.185 per troy ounce dan 2017 sebesar US$1.060 per troy ounce. Proyeksi rentang harga tahun ini senilai US$1.100 - US$1.400 per troy ounce, sedangkan 2017 sejumlah US$980-US$1.500 per troy ounce.
Jeffrey Currie dan Max Layton, Analis Goldman Sachs Group Inc., menaikkan proyeksi harga emas dalam triwulan pertama sebesar US$1.200 per troy ounce, semester I/2016 sejumlah US$1.180 per troy ounce, dan dua belas bulan atau akhir tahun senilai US$1.150 per troy ounce.
Sebelumnya, prediksi harga masing-masing periode tersebut ialah US$1.100, US$1.1050, dan US$1.000 per troy ounce.
Revisi harga dilakukan setelah ekonom Goldman memotong proyeksi kenaikan suku bunga Federal Reserve sebesar 50 poin dari sebelumnya 100 poin dalam 12 bulan ke depan. Mereka berpendapat Fed Fund Rate (FFR) kemungkinan besar naik pada September 2016.
Berdasarkan data Fed-fun futures, peluang kenaikan FFR di September ialah 31%. Namun, tidak menutup kemungkinan suku bunga naik pada Juli seiring dengan membaiknya ekonomi AS. Prediksi peluang pengerekan pada Juli sebesar 17%.
"Risiko kenaikan harga emas relatif terbatas, dengan pandangan Fed yang kini lebih hawkish. Dolar pun secara bertahap akan terapresiasi dalam 3-12 bulan," papar Goldman.
Sementara itu, pada perdagangan Kamis (12/5) pukul 07:20 WIB harga emas Gold Spot naik 0,04% menjadi US$1.277,68 per troy ounce.
Singapore, May 3, 2016 (AFP)
The dollar extended its losses against the yen and euro Tuesday as fresh data indicating a slowdown in the US manufacturing sector lowered expectations the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates any time soon.
The greenback was already under pressure against the yen after the Bank of Japan on Thursday refused to expand its stimulus programme despite a string of weak economic indicators and two deadly earthquakes that closed factories.
On Monday a closely watched gauge of US factories for April showed the rate of growth eased, leading to concerns about the state of the world's number one economy.
That came after data last week showed consumer spending rose only slightly in April, while the economy expanded slower than expected in the first three months of the year.
The readings mean it is highly unlikely the Fed will hike interest rates at its June policy meeting, while some analysts say September would be the earliest, if at all this year.
On Tuesday in Asia the dollar fell to 106.06 yen at one point before edging up marginally to 106.19 yen, but still well down from the 106.42 yen late in New York. The greenback is wallowing at lows not seen since October 2014.
Remarks by Japanese finance minister Taro Aso hinting at a possible market intervention to staunch the yen's rise seemed to have little impact.
The manufacturing figure also came after a similar gauge in the eurozone pointed to a pick-up in activity, sending the euro above $1.15 for the first time in nine months Monday. Early Tuesday the single currency was at $1.1532.
However, the dollar rallied 0.8 percent against its Australia counterpart after the country's central bank cut interest rates to a record low after inflation last week came well below expectations.
United Overseas Bank (UOB) said focus will now turn to the release on Friday of April jobs figures, a key gauge of the health of the US economy.
UOB said the data "could swing market expectations for (the) Federal Reserve's future course of interest rate actions".
Trading was thin with the Japanese financial markets closed until Friday for public holidays.
The greenback has come under pressure in recent weeks after the Fed decided against hiking interest rates and stood by its stance that any further rises would be slow and small as economic growth remained relatively weak.
Washington, May 2, 2016 (AFP)
US manufacturing activity sputtered in April, falling to near the no-growth line in the ailing sector after mostly contracting for the past six months.
The manufacturing sector has been puttering along, hampered by slow global growth and the impact of the strong dollar on exports.
The Institute for Supply Management said its purchasing managers index for the manufacturing sector fell to 50.8 in April from 51.8 in March.
The one-point April slide was larger than the 0.4 point dip consensus estimate of analysts, and brought the PMI index closer to striking distance of the 50 level that divides growth and contraction.
Before March, the PMI index had been in contraction territory since October, with the five-month streak the longest stretch of its kind since 2009 amid the Great Recession, according to Briefing.com.
The April data showed new orders, a key driver of activity, fell a hefty 2.5 points to 55.8, but that was after a large gain in March, and production also slowed.
The employment index improved but still remained in contraction.
Of the 18 manufacturing industries surveyed, only 11 reported growth in April, led mainly by wood, printing and paper products.
Reflecting the downturn in the energy industry amid low prices, petroleum and coal products were the worst hit among the four manufacturing industries in the red.
"With the value of the dollar having moved lower since the beginning of the year and with financial stress largely having abated, we expect manufacturing output to move largely sideways this year before eventually returning to a modest positive trend," said Rob Martin of Barclays Research.
la times: Growth by the U.S. economy fell off sharply in the first three months of 2016, posting its worst quarterly performance in two years amid a global slowdown, the Commerce Department said Thursday.
The broadest measure of the nation's economic output, known as gross domestic product, increased at an annual rate of 0.5% from January through March. That was down from a weak 1.4% reading in the fourth quarter and 0.2 percentage points below analysts' forecasts.
The last time the economy performed worse was in the first quarter of 2014, when severe winter weather in much of the nation caused GDP to contract at a 0.9% annual rate.
This year's first-quarter slowdown was driven by declines in business investment, exports and federal government spending, the Commerce Department said.
Growth in consumer spending, a key driver of the economy, also declined as Americans became more cautious in the wake of a financial market downturn earlier this year.
The 1.9% increase in consumer spending was down from 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2015 and the weakest in a year.
The Commerce Department stressed that Thursday's estimate was just the first of three for first-quarter growth and was based on data that were incomplete or subject to revision. A second estimate will be released May 27.
First-quarter growth "looks grim, but the second quarter will be much better," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.
The stock market plunge in January was a key factor in the poor first-quarter performance, he said. But the market has recovered and Shepherdson expects growth to improve as well.
Still, the slowdown in U.S. economic growth will be a factor as Federal Reservepolicymakers consider whether to continue raising a key interest rate. The central bank inched up its benchmark federal funds rate in December after keeping it near zero for seven years.
The Fed said Wednesday that "labor market conditions have improved further even as growth in economic activity appears to have slowed."
Initial jobless claims, a key labor market indicator, increased slightly to 257,000 last week, the Labor Department said Thursday. But claims remained historically low -- the 256,000 average over the previous four weeks was the fewest since 1973.
Economists expect that job growth was solid again in April, with forecasts calling for the creation of 200,000 net new positions and the unemployment rate holding steady at 5%.
Fed policymakers must balance the strengthening jobs market with weaker overall economic growth. After a two-day meeting this week, the Fed opted to hold the rate steady at between 0.25% and 0.5%.
The Fed next meets in June, and its most recent forecast indicated plans for two small 0.25 percentage point rate hikes this year.
"Today’s anemic growth numbers fully justify the Federal Reserve’s decision this week to not further increase short-term interest rates," said Josh Bivens, research and policy director for the Economic Policy Institute, a think tank focused on the needs of low- and middle-income workers.
New York, April 27, 2016 (AFP)
The dollar held steady Wednesday after the Federal Reserve said it was leaving short-term interest rates unchanged and cracked open the door to a rate hike in June.
The Federal Open Market Committee, the US central bank's policy arm, announced it was standing pat on ultra-low 0.25-0.50 percent for its benchmark federal funds rate, as expected, after raising it in December after seven years near zero.
The FOMC statement indicated policymakers were more optimistic about global economic conditions than they were in their March meeting as they noted a mixed picture for the US economy.
In March the FOMC said international economic and financial developments "pose risks."
In the new outlook, it simply said that it would continue "to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments."
"The language of the statement signaled that the probability of a rate hike at the June meeting is stronger now than it was at the March meeting. Unless economic data deteriorates unexpectedly, the Fed has enough to justify a rate hike in June," said IHS Global Insight economists in a client note.
The FOMC decision had only a small net effect on the dollar. Around 2100 GMT, the greenback traded at $1.1321 per euro, down a modest 0.2 percent from the same time Tuesday.
The yen ticked lower against the dollar and the euro as the Bank of Japan opened a two-day monetary policy meeting.
The Japanese central bank is widely expected to announce more stimulus Thursday for the flagging economy. Deadly earthquakes earlier this month have led to temporary factory shutdowns at a time when the world's third-largest economy is already struggling.
2100 GMT Wednesday Tuesday
EUR/USD 1.1321 1.1298
EUR/JPY 126.21 125.76
EUR/CHF 1.0994 1.1000
EUR/GBP 0.7785 0.7749
USD/JPY 111.47 111.31
USD/CHF 0.9711 0.9735
GBP/USD 1.4543 1.4582
barron: By Amey Stone
The Federal Reserve is always weighing upside and downside risks to any policy action. But going into its April meeting, currency markets have it stuck in what several economists are calling a “negative feedback loop.”
Peter Boockvar of The Lindsey Group used that phrase in his Wednesday morning note, which outlined 10 different economic influences the Fed is weighing. Six of them suggest the Fed should hike (like a stronger labor market and the spike in commodities prices), but he notes, “2 of which will reverse if they do pointing to the perpetual feedback loop the Fed continues to travel through.”
One example, “The US trade weighed dollar index is down almost 3%. Fed should hike but of course will then lead to a dollar rally,” he writes.
Barron’s spoke Tuesday with Sharon Stark, fixed income strategist at D.A. Davidson, who thinks that, due to the negative feedback loop, the Fed could do more harm than good by raising rates.
Here’s how that works:
The U.S. economy picks up speed, the Fed raises rates, the dollar strengthens, U.S. exports become more expensive, corporate revenues fall, the economy weakens.
And here’s another version of the negative feedback loop that we’ve already seen and some economists worry could happen again if the Fed doesn’t hike:
The Fed suggests it won’t raise rates, foreign currencies strengthen, hurting their exports, they devalue their currencies to keep their economies afloat, global markets freak out.
The Bank of Japan could create another negative feedback loop this week, notes Stark. It meets Thursday. If it lowers rates more, that could stimulate investors to buy higher-yielding U.S. Treasuries. That would strengthen the dollar against the yen and could hurt U.S. exports.
wsj.com:
Federal Reserve officials are virtually certain to hold interest rates steady when their meeting ends Wednesday but they could try to send a message to markets and outside observers about what likely comes next. With no press conference scheduled after this week’s meeting and no new economic forecasts to be released, all the attention will be focused on the Fed’s policy statement, to be released Wednesday at 2 p.m. EDT. Here are five things to watch.
Fed officials routinely include a line in their statement assessing the risks to their economic outlook. Risk, in this context, means the likelihood that the economy does not behave according to their projections. Sometimes there are more risks that the economy underperforms, which Fed officials call “downside risks.” Sometimes, the risks are tilted towards an overperforming economy, known as “upside risks.” Sometimes, they are in balance. The assessment offers a clue about officials’ confidence in the economy. For the past two meetings, officials have conspicuously not included a risk assessmentbecause of an internal split. The statement will show whether they have reconciled their views.
Observers will be parsing Wednesday’s statement closely to see whether Fed officials drop any hints about a potential rate increase at their next meeting in June. Some economists say this week’s statement could resemble the October 2015 statement, in which the Fed held rates steady but explicitly mentioned the possibility of moving “at its next meeting.” Although a hint of a coming rate increase will probably not be as explicit this week, officials could find a way to include a subtle nod towards future action.
Fed officials have made no secret that the global economic and financial upheavals of the past few months could threaten the U.S. economy. Those worries spiked in January when a wobble in the Chinese economy and a renewed drop in the price of oil drove investors into safer assets and threatened to derail the slow global recovery. The world looks calmer today but Fed officials remain apprehensive. “Global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks,” their March statement read. How Fed officials describe those conditions this week could tell us how worried they are about another round of turbulence.
Inflation has undershot the Fed’s 2% target for more than three years but officials got some promising signals in January when the personal-consumption expenditures price index rose 1.2% over the previous year, suggesting an easing of downward pressure from low energy prices and a stronger dollar. February’s inflation numbers were softer, with prices up 1% over the previous year, but analysts see a glimmer of hope in the data. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, however, said at her March 16 press conference she was “wary” of relying too much on first quarter data, which could be distorted by seasonal trends. The statement Wednesday could tell us how significant Fed officials believe the recent inflation numbers are.
So far this year, officials have generally found consensus about holding interest rates steady, recording just one dissent at their two policy meetings. The nay vote was from Kansas City Fed President Esther George in March, when she wanted to raise rates. She could dissent again this week, having warned earlier this month that waiting to move could fuel dangerous asset bubbles. She might be joined by Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester orJames Bullard of St. Louis, who have both recently suggested they would like to resume raising interest rates.
New York, April 26, 2016 (AFP)
The dollar extended losses against the euro and pound Tuesday after disappointing US economic data helped cement expectations the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged the next day. US durable goods orders rose much less than expected in March, adding further evidence of weakness in the manufacturing sector. Consumer confidence in April unexpectedly fell, according to the closely watched Conference Board survey. The data came as the Federal Reserve opened a two-day monetary policy meeting. All eyes in the market were focused on the Fed's post-meeting statement, due at 1800 GMT Wednesday. "While no change in rates is expected from the Fed tomorrow, its policy statement could help shed light on the outlook for borrowing costs over the months ahead," said Omer Esiner Commonwealth Foreign Exchange. "In particular, investors want to see if the Fed acknowledges any improvement in domestic or international economic conditions, which could make a quarter-point rate hike in June more likely." The dollar, which had weakened Monday, slipped 0.3 percent to $1.1298 per euro. The greenback, meanwhile, edged higher against the yen. "With the US central bank likely on hold for the time being, and absent any strong signals with respect to the timing of the next interest rate increase, we continue to expect only moderate US dollar performance in the near term," said Eric Viloria, currency strategist at Wells Fargo Securities. <pre> 2100 GMT Tuesday Monday </pre> EUR/USD 1.1298 1.1266 EUR/JPY 125.76 125.30 EUR/CHF 1.1000 1.0987 EUR/GBP 0.7749 0.7780 USD/JPY 111.31 111.21 USD/CHF 0.9735 0.9752 GBP/USD 1.4582 1.4482
bloomberg: Emerging market stocks and currencies fell as a retreat in oil and concern that the Federal Reserve may turn more hawkish at its meeting this week damped demand for riskier assets in developing nations.
Chinese stocks extended last week’s losses after commodity exchanges moved to cool trading in raw materials and data showed stronger demand for workers, suggesting the central bank won’t offer additional measures to boost growth. Petroleo Brasileiro SA, the Brazilian state-controlled oil producer, led a gauge of developing-nation energy stocks lower as Brent crude fell from a five-month high. Saudi shares rose the most in seven weeks after approval of a plan for a post-oil era.
“It is partly jitters around the Fed this week that are causing the declines across emerging markets today, but also a reaction to the rumors last week that the Chinese central bank may be providing less stimulus in the future,” said Michael Wang, a strategist at hedge fund Amiya Capital LLP in London who favors shares in India, Mexico and Poland. “Emerging-market fundamentals are still weak, so a rise in U.S. yields would pressure emerging-market FX and eventually, equities.”
Fed Outlook
A rally in emerging-market assets since the middle of February is fading as investors look for renewed guidance about whether recent data on hiring in the U.S. warrants a quickening of interest-rate increases. While the Fed is forecast to stay on hold Wednesday, its statement may provide signals on when policy makers will add to their December rate increase. U.S. central bankers have indicated they will raise borrowing costs twice this year.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 0.7 percent to 839.20, the lowest close in two weeks. All 10 industry groups declined, led by raw-material and financial stocks.
The developing-nation stock benchmark trades at 11.8 times the projected earnings of its members in the next 12 months, a 27 percent discount to the valuation for advanced-nation shares.
The Shanghai Composite Index lost 0.4 percent after sliding 3.9 percent last week. Commodity exchanges in the Chinese cities of Zhengzhou and Dalian said late Friday that they would raise margin requirements on futures contracts of cotton and thermal coal, following similar moves on steel reinforcement-bar and iron ore contracts earlier in the week.
Brazil, Russia
Petrobras fell 4.3 percent. The Ibovespa retreated 1.6 percent. Vale SA, the world’s largest iron-ore producer, led the Brazilian benchmark gauge’s decline, tumbling 7.5 percent.
The Micex Index dropped 0.6 percent. Retailer Magnit PJSC contributed the most to the Russian benchmark’s decline, plunging 7.3 percent after posting first-quarter earnings that trailed estimates. Oil producer Lukoil PJSC dropped 1.3 percent, falling for the first time in a week. Oil is the country’s biggest export. Brent crude declined 1.4 percent to $44.48 a barrel.
The Tadawul All Share Index added 2.5 percent to the the highest close since Jan. 3, led by an 8.3 percent gain in real-estate developer Jabal Omar Development Co. Saudi Arabian stocks rallied after the nation’s king approved plans for economic development through 2030.
ETF Inflows
Investors added money to U.S. exchange-traded funds that buy emerging-market stocks and bonds for the 10th straight week, bringing the gains since mid-February to more than $11 billion. Deposits into ETFs that invest across developing nations as well as those that target specific countries totaled $658.8 million in the week ended April 22, compared with inflows of $706.5 million in the previous period, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The current streak is the longest since the 11 weeks that ended last May 29.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index slipped 0.1 percent. Colombia’s peso weakened the most, depreciating 0.7 percent against the dollar. The South Korean won fell 0.4 percent. Brazil’s real strengthened 0.5 percent as the central bank refrained from moving to weaken it.
There’s a 65 percent chance the Fed will boost its benchmark rate this year, up from 50 percent odds as of April 15, according to data compiled by Bloomberg based on federal fund futures. Officials held off from raising borrowing costs at their March meeting and scaled back forecasts for how high rates will rise this year.
Turkish bonds fell, pushing the yield on 10-year local currency bonds up eight basis points, before a quarterly inflation report on Tuesday. Russian bonds declined with the yield on 10-year securities increasing four basis points.
The premium investors demand to own emerging-market debt over U.S. Treasuries was unchanged at 381 basis points, remaining near a four-month low, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. indexes.
New York, April 25, 2016 (AFP) The dollar slipped against the euro and the yen Monday in a cautious market ahead of interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan this week. Though the Fed was largely expected to hold ultra-low interest rates unchanged at the end of a two-day meeting Wednesday, traders hoped the post-meeting statement would shed light on the outlook for future rate hikes. "The euro hit a technical support level at 1.12 on Friday and we have seen a little bounce-back since," said Boris Schlossberg of BK Asset Management. "But mostly it's just the market positioning itself" before the Fed rate decision, he said. The dollar fell to $1.1266 per euro around 2100 GMT, down 0.3 percent from Friday. The Fed was expected to remain cautious amid worries about the global economy, including Britain's June vote on exiting the European Union and weak inflation. "Any softening of the Fed's concern regarding international headwinds or any signs that officials see inflation pressures beginning to mount would suggest a higher probability of a hike in June and likely send the dollar higher," said Omer Esiner at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange. The yen, meanwhile, rebounded from Friday's plunge in reaction to a Bloomberg News story that the central bank may take steps to support major financial institutions hit by its negative-rate policy. The Japanese currency rose 0.5 percent against the greenback and 0.2 percent against the euro. If the Bank of Japan's meeting on Wednesday and Thursday results in easier policy, that could send the yen lower, Esiner said. But, he said, "the extent to which any yen losses can be sustained is unclear, especially against a still nervous and risk-averse global market backdrop." <pre> 2100 GMT Monday Friday EUR/USD 1.1266 1.1230 EUR/JPY 125.30 125.50 EUR/CHF 1.0987 1.0985 EUR/GBP 0.7780 0.7786 USD/JPY 111.21 111.75 USD/CHF 0.9752 0.9781 GBP/USD 1.4482 1.4424 </pre>
NEW YORK - Kurs dolar AS menurun terhadap sebagian besar mata uang utama pada Selasa (Rabu pagi WIB), karena data ekonomi yang keluar dari negara itu lebih lemah dari perkiraan.
Angka "housing starts" (jumlah rumah baru yang dibangun) yang dimiliki secara pribadi di AS pada Maret mencapai 1,089 juta unit pada tingkat tahunan disesuaikan secara musiman , Departemen Perdagangan melaporkan pada Selasa.
Perkiraan terbaru itu berada di bawah konsensus pasar 1,167 juta unit dan juga 8,8 persen di bawah perkiraan Februari yang direvisi.
Federal Reserve melaporkan pada Jumat lalu bahwa produksi industri AS turun 0,6 persen pada Maret untuk bulan kedua berturut-turut, di bawah konsensus pasar untuk penurunan 0,1 persen.
Para analis mengatakan data ekonomi suram baru-baru ini mungkin mempertahankan Federal Reserve berhati-hati dalam menaikkan suku bunga utamanya.
Indeks dolar, yang mengukur greenback terhadap enam mata uang utama, turun 0,56 persen menjadi 93,963 pada akhir perdagangan .
Pada akhir perdagangan New York, euro naik menjadi USD1,1380 dari USD1,1314 di sesi sebelumnya, dan pound Inggris naik menjadi USD1,4404 dari USD1,4285. Dolar Australia naik ke USD0,7817 dari USD0,7745.
Dolar dibeli 109,10 yen Jepang, lebih tinggi dari 108,84 yen pada sesi sebelumnya. Dolar jatuh ke 0,9600 franc Swiss dari 0,9644 franc Swiss, dan turun tipis menjadi 1,2647 dolar Kanada dari 1,2809 dolar Kanada.
(rai)
JAKARTA. Ekonomi Amerika Serikat bergerak stabil dengan beberapa tanda-tanda inflasi sehingga kebijakan suku bunga the Fed saat ini dinilai sudah tepat.
Dalam pidatonya pada Kamis malam waktu AS, Gubernur The Fed Janet Yellen mengatakan bahwa tujuh tahun setelah krisis keuangan yang besar di dunia, pasar tenaga kerja AS sekarang hampir mencapai titik tertinggi sehingga inflasi tidak akan ditahan lebih lama lagi menyusul dolar yang kuat dan rendahnya harga minyak.
â€Å“Ekonomi AS terus berkembang dengan memuaskan. Kita terus melihat data tingkat pekerjaan yang baik, beberapa bukti menunjukkan inflasi bergerak naik, itulah ekspektasi kami saat menaikkan suku bunga Desember lalu,†kata Yellen dalam pidatonya di International House seperti yang dikutip oleh Reuters, Jumat (8/4/2016).
â€Å“Ya, ada dukungan dalam kebijakan moneter yang kita miliki, tetapi keputusan untuk meningkatkan suku bunga secara bertahap adalah keputusan yang tepat,†lanjutnya.
Bank sentral AS menaikkan suku bunga acuan mereka pada Desember tahun lalu dan merupakan kenaikan pertama sejak hampir 10 tahun lalu.
nhk: Fed minutes: Cautious about rate hike in April
The US Federal Reserve has released the minutes of its policy meeting in mid-March. It says policymakers were cautious about raising their key interest rate at the following meeting in April.
Several expressed their concern that raising the key rate as soon as the following month would "signal a sense of urgency they did not think appropriate."
But not all agreed. Some others said going ahead with the move at this month's meeting might be warranted if data were to improve.
Many participants expressed a view that the "global economic and financial situation still posed appreciable downside risks to the domestic economic outlook."
Market players believe the Fed will forgo another rate hike this month, but could make a decision in their June meeting.
INILAHCOM, Washington - Para pejabat Federal Reserve terpecah atas apakah menaikkan suku bunga acuan berikutnya pada pertemuan April, karena mereka melihat risiko-risiko cukup besar terhadap ekonomi AS dari perkembangan global, risalah pertemuan kebijakan terbaru Fed menunjukkan, Rabu (6/4/2016).
"Banyak peserta mengungkapkan pandangan bahwa situasi ekonomi dan keuangan global masih menimbulkan risiko-risiko penurunan cukup besar terhadap prospek ekonomi domestik. Beberapa mencatat bahwa gejolak pasar keuangan baru-baru ini memberikan peringatan penting bahwa kemampuan bank sentral untuk mengimbangi dampak guncangan ekonomi yang merugikan mungkin terbatas," menurut risalah pertemuan The Fed 15-16 Maret yang dirilis Rabu.
The Fed menaikkan kisaran target untuk suku bunga federal funds sebesar 25 basis poin menjadi 0,25-0,50 persen pada Desember, kenaikan suku bunga pertama dalam hampir satu dekade, menandai akhir dari sebuah era pelonggaran kebijakan moneter yang luar biasa.
Tetapi gejolak di pasar keuangan dan pelambatan ekonomi global sejak awal tahun ini telah meningkatkan kekhawatiran tentang kekuatan ekonomi AS, memaksa para pembuat kebijakan The Fed untuk menunda setiap kenaikan suku bunga lebih lanjut sejak itu.
Proyeksi diperbarui The Fed yang dirilis bulan lalu menunjukkan bahwa para pembuat kebijakan memperkirakan suku bunga federal funds akan naik menjadi sekitar 0,9 persen pada akhir 2016, menyiratkan dua kenaikan suku bunga seperempat persentase poin tahun ini, turun dari empat kali kenaikan yang diperkirakan pada Desember.
"Mereka menyatakan berbagai pandangan tentang kemungkinan bahwa informasi yang masuk akan membuat sebuah penyesuaian (dengan sikap kebijakan moneter) yang tepat pada saat pertemuan berikutnya" dijadwalkan pada 26-27 April, risalah mengatakan, mencatat bahwa sejumlah pejabat Fed melihat beberapa masalah (headwinds) yang menahan pertumbuhan ekonomi AS cenderung "mereda hanya perlahan-lahan." "Beberapa menyatakan pandangan bahwa pendekatan hati-hati untuk menaikkan suku bunga akan lebih bijaksana atau mencatat kekhawatiran mereka bahwa meningkatkan kisaran target suku bunga secepat April akan mengindikasikan rasa urgensi mereka tidak berpikir tepat," kata risalah.
Tapi beberapa pejabat Fed lainnya menunjukkan bahwa mereka cenderung untuk menaikkan suku pada pertemuan berikutnya "jika data ekonomi yang masuk tetap konsisten dengan harapan mereka untuk pertumbuhan moderat dalam output, penguatan lebih lanjut dari pasar tenaga kerja, dan inflasi naik dua persen selama jangka menengah".
"Mengingat risiko-risko terhadap prospek, saya menganggap itu tepat untuk komite melanjutkan dengan hati-hati dalam menyesuaikan kebijakan," kata Ketua Fed Janet Yellen pekan lalu, merujuk kepada Komite Pasar Terbuka Federal (FOMC), unit kebijakan moneter The Fed.
"Hati-hati ini terutama diperlukan karena, dengan suku bunga federal funds sangat rendah, kemampuan FOMC menggunakan kebijakan moneter konvensional untuk menanggapi gangguan ekonomi adalah asimetris," Yellen menambahkan, menandakan bahwa dia ingin menunggu lebih banyak waktu untuk menilai prospek ekonomi AS sebelum menaikkan suku bunga lagi.
"Asimetri ini membuat bijaksana untuk menunggu informasi tambahan mengenai kekuatan yang mendasari kegiatan ekonomi dan prospek inflasi sebelum mengambil langkah lain untuk mengurangi kebijakan akomodasi," kata risalah.
Sekitar 76 persen dari pengusaha dan ekonom akademik yang disurvei oleh Wall Street Journal bulan lalu memperkirakan bahwa Fed akan menunggu sampai Juni untuk menaikkan suku bunga acuannya. [tar]
- See more at: http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/2286413/notula-pejabat-fed-pecah-soal-kapan-bunga-naik#sthash.GJB3Gkby.dpuf
marketwatch: U.S. stocks closed with solid gains Wednesday, boosted by soaring oil prices, while minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting signaled reluctance to raise rates as early as this month.
Minutes from the March 15-16 meeting showed ‘several’ officials argued against an interest-rate increase in April, saying such move “would signal too much urgency they didn't think appropriate.” U.S. central bank officials also were split on whether the stubbornly low inflation would hit the Fed’s 2% target level.
“There was no new news in Fed minutes—the bigger news was when the they cut rate hike forecasts to get more in line with what the market was expecting and when [Chairwoman] Janet Yellen gave a dovish speech last week,” said Tom Siomades, head of Hartford Funds Investment Consulting Group.
The S&P 500 SPX, +1.05% closed with a gain of 21.49 points, or 1.1%, at 2,066.66, recouping all of the losses from the previous session. Health-care stocks led the advance, up 2.7%, while the energy sector rose 2.1%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.64% added 112.73 points, or 0.6%, to finish at 17,716.05. The Nasdaq Composite COMP, +1.59% advanced 76.78 points, or 1.6%, to 4,920.72, it’s highest settlement of the year, with biotech shares leading the gains. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF IBB, +5.99% rose 6%, it best one-day gain since late August.
The minutes affirmed that “several” Fed officials are taking a cautious approach to raising rates as falling commodity prices and fear that sluggish growth abroad could wash ashore persist.
A jump in oil prices sent shares of energy companies sharply higher, boosting indexes in early trade. Oil prices soared 5.2%, to close at $37.75 a barrel after a surprise drop in inventories. The Energy Information Administration reported U.S. crude supplies in storage fell by 4.9 million barrels in the week ended April 1.
Commenting about a jump in biotechs, Karyn Cavanaugh, senior market strategist at Voya Financial said “Biotechs had been beaten down so much that a rebound was inevitable, it’s a reversion to the mean.”
NEW YORK. Bursa AS ditutup positif pada Rabu (30/3). Mengutip data Bloomberg,pada pukul 16.00 waktu New York, indeks Standard & Poor's 500 naik 0,9% menjadi 2.055,01. Ini merupakan posisi tertinggi sejak 30 Desember lalu.
Sedangkan indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average naik 0,6% menjadi 17.633,11. Indeks Nasdaq bahkan mendaki lebih tinggi sebesar 1,7% akibat lompatan saham-saham berbasis teknologi. Sementara, indeks Russell 2000 melaju 2,7%, kenaikan tertinggi dalam dua bulan terakhir.
Bursa AS sumringah setelah pimpinan The Fed Janet Yellen memberikan sinyal bahwa bank sentral AS akan lebih berhati-hati dengan langkah kebijakan kenaikan suku bunga acuan mengacu pada risiko global. Pernyataan tersebut mementahkan pendapat yang mendukung kenaikan suku bunga (hawkish) yang sebelumnya diutarakan oleh pimpinan The Fed lain.
"Yellen kembali menegaskan bahwa bank sentral akan lebih berhati-hati, dan market menemukan kenyamanan dari pernyataan tersebut. Tidak ada kejutan berarti tadi malam yang membuat pasar bergerak ke arah sebaliknya. Saat ini, investor bisa kembali mengacu pada data-data ekonomi dan kinerja emiten," papar Richard Sichel, chief investment officer Philadelpia Trust Co.
Sekadar informasi, indeks S&P sudah reli selama lima pekan berturut-turut sehingga menghapus seluruh penurunan di 2016. Jika dilihat dari posisi terendah dalam 22 bulan pada 11 Februari lalu, indeks acuan AS ini sudah melonjak 12%.
"Yellen ingin memberitahukan bahwa The Fed masih menjadi teman baik market, serta biaya pinjaman dan biaya modal masih akan rendah," jelas David Sowerby, portfolio manager Loomis Sayles & Co. Dia menambahkan, hal ini menjadi faktor utama penegerek pasar saham.
Saat berpidato pada acara Economic Club of New York, Yellen bilang, akan lebih bijaksana jika bank sentral berhati-hati dalam mengambil sebuah kebijakan. Apalagi, kondisi ekonomi dan finansial Amerika tidak sebaik bulan Desember saat The Fed menaikkan suku bunga untuk pertama kalinya dalam sembilan tahun.
Yellen juga mengatakan, perekonomian AS dan kondisi pasar tenaga kerja mulai membaik. Namun, dia mencemaskan mengenai lambatnya kemungkinan lenaikan suku bunga. Menurutnya, The Fed masih memiliki kemampuan untuk menetapkan kebijakan yang akomodatif.
New York, March 23, 2016 (AFP) The dollar advanced Wednesday after a Federal Reserve official said the US central bank should consider hiking interest rates next month if economic data cooperate. James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis, said the US central bank should weigh a rate hike if the March jobs report is solid, according to Bloomberg News. "You get another strong jobs report, it looks like labor markets are improving, you could probably make a case for moving in April," Bullard said. The remarks came a week after the Fed kept interest rates unchanged and signaled a more gradual pace of rate increases due to slowing global growth. But Fed officials have adopted a different tone this week, said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange. "A number of Fed speakers this week have so far sounded a generally hawkish tone with regards to the outlook for monetary policy, in a little bit of a contrast to what we saw last week in the Fed policy statement," he said. "That's what's basically supporting the dollar." <pre> 2100 GMT Wednesday Tuesday EUR/USD 1.1183 1.1216 EUR/JPY 125.72 126.01 EUR/CHF 1.0905 1.0911 EUR/GBP 0.7923 0.7890 USD/JPY 112.43 112.35 USD/CHF 0.9751 0.9727 GBP/USD 1.4116 1.4215 </pre>
ID: Menurut Lana Soelistianingsih, likuiditas global cenderung terus bertambah setelah sejumlah bank sentral beberapa negara maju menetapkan kebijakan suku bunganya.
Pekan lalu, The Fed memutuskan untuk mempertahankan suku bunga acuannya pada posisi 0,25-0,50%. The Fed cenderung menunggu lebih lama untuk menilai prospek ekonomi AS, sebelum menaikan suku bunganya.
“Aksi The Fed menambah daftar ekspansi bank sentral dunia, setelah BoJ menerapkan suku bunga negatif dan ECB meluncurkan stimulus. Pengaruh aksi ketiganya adalah menambah uang beredar di global,” ujar dia.
Kecuali mempertahankan Fed funds rate (FFR), The Fed dalam pertemuan Komite Pasar Terbuka Federal (FOMC) di Washington pekan lalu mengisyaratkan hanya akan dua kali menaikkan suku bunga acuan tahun ini ke level 0,90%. The Fed sebelumnya mengindikasikan penaikan FFR hingga empat kali masing-masing 25 bps sepanjang tahun ini.
Sejalan dengan itu, tren suku bunga negatif melanda sejumlah negara, seperti Denmark (-0,65%), Swiss (-0,75%), dan Swedia (-0,50%), sedangkan ECB memberlakukan suku bunga minus 0,30%. Kanada, Inggris, dan Norwegia juga memberlakukan suku bunga rendah, masing-masing 0,25%, 0,50%, dan 0,75%.
Lana menjelaskan, para pengelola dana asing (hedge funds) selalu mencari tempat investasi dengan hasil investasi (return) menjanjikan. Ini berarti, meski sentimen sepanjang pekan ini sebetulnya cukup sepi, IHSG bakal terdorong oleh aksi beli asing.
Indeks diprediksi bergerak dalam kisaran 4.780-4.930 pekan ini, sebelum menembus level psikologis 5.000 dalam jangka menengah. (az/gor)
Federal Reserve officials held off from raising borrowing costs and scaled back forecasts for how high interest rates will rise this year, citing the potential impact from weaker global growth and financial-market turmoil on the U.S. economy.
The Federal Open Market Committee kept the target range for the benchmark federal funds rate at 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent, the central bank said in a statement Wednesday following a two-day meeting in Washington. The median of policy makers’ updated quarterly projections saw the rate at 0.875 percent at the end of 2016, implying two quarter-point increases this year, down from four forecast in December.
“The committee currently expects that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace and labor market indicators will continue to strengthen,” the FOMC said. “However, global economic and financial developments continue to pose risks.”
Kansas City Fed President Esther George dissented from the decision, preferring a quarter-point rate increase.
Yields on Treasury securities fell following the Fed’s actions, with the rate on the 10-year note dropping to 1.92 percent at 2:10 p.m. in New York from 1.99 percent just before the announcement.
‘Dovish’ Hold
“The tone of the FOMC statement and accompanying economic projections was dovish,” Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economist at Renaissance Macro Research LLC in New York, said in a research note. The reference to global risks “pushes the Fed in the role of the world’s central bank. In this role, the Fed needs to let inflation in the U.S. surge to offset disinflation in the rest of the world.”
Fed Chair Janet Yellen is scheduled to hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. in Washington to explain the committee’s decision.
Weaker-than-forecast global growth has clouded the U.S. outlook and led investors to expect a slower pace of tightening since the Fed raised rates in December for the first time in almost a decade. Yellen said in February that market turbulence had “significantly” tightened financial conditions by pushing down stock prices, causing the dollar to strengthen and boosting some borrowing costs.
“Economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace,” with household spending gaining amid “soft” company investment and net exports, the Fed said. While inflation has “picked up in recent months,” market-based measures of inflation compensation are still low, the central bank said.
Median Dot
The median of Fed officials’ projections, known as the “dot plot,” saw the federal funds rate at 1.875 percent at the end of 2017, compared with 2.375 percent forecast in December. The end-2018 level fell to 3 percent, from 3.25 percent, with the longer-run projection at 3.25 percent, down from 3.5 percent.
Policy makers maintained their projections on how soon inflation will return to the Fed’s 2 percent target, while cutting their inflation forecast to 1.2 percent this year from 1.6 percent. Officials still see the preferred price gauge rising 1.9 percent in 2017 and 2 percent in 2018.
Officials maintained their forecast for a 4.7 percent U.S. unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of this year. The median projection for 2017 fell to 4.6 percent from 4.7 percent, and in 2018 to 4.5 percent from 4.7 percent. The rate stood at 4.9 percent in February.
Job Market
“A range of recent indicators, including strong job gains, points to additional strengthening of the labor market,” the FOMC said.
The Fed reiterated that the “stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation.”
Economists in a Bloomberg survey conducted earlier this month put the probability of an April rate increase at 15 percent and chances of a June move at 42 percent. That compares to market-implied projections of 25 percent for April and 54 percent for June, according to pricing in fed funds futures as of Tuesday.
Fed officials have differed publicly about economic prospects, with Governor Lael Brainard on March 7 arguing for patience in tightening monetary policy while Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer on the same day pointed to the “first stirrings” of inflation.
Yellen and her colleagues have singled out uncertainty over China’s outlook as a risk to U.S. growth.
Payrolls Climb
The domestic U.S. economy has mostly been solid, however. Payroll gains have averaged 235,000 over the last six months as the jobless rate matched the Fed’s goal for maximum employment, though measures of long-term unemployment and wage growth suggest the labor market still has room to grow.
Some progress has also been made on the inflation side of the Fed’s dual mandate. The personal consumption expenditures price index, which the Fed targets at 2 percent annual gains, rose 1.3 percent in January from a year earlier, after 13 consecutive months with rises below 1 percent, owing to a slide in energy prices.
The separate consumer price index released Wednesday showed prices, excluding food and energy, rose by a greater-than-anticipated 0.3 percent in February from the previous month.
Oil Prices
Oil prices have surged around 40 percent since mid-February, when the cost for a barrel of crude fell to about $26, the lowest since 2003.
U.S. stock markets, which had slumped by more than 10 percent by mid-February from the start of the year, have also regained ground, with the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index now down just 1.4 percent this year through Tuesday. Meanwhile the dollar, whose strength in 2015 hurt U.S. exports and dented growth, has slipped about 1.3 percent against a broad basket of currencies since Dec. 31.
The Fed’s tightening bias contrasts with aggressive easing abroad.
The European Central Bank unleashed another round of unprecedented stimulus last week that included a cut in a key interest rate further below zero.
In Tokyo, the Bank of Japan held fire on further stimulus Tuesday but laid the groundwork for additional easing after cutting its deposit rate to minus 0.1 percent in January.
China’s central bank cut the main interest rate to a record low in six successive reductions through October, and recently made another reduction to the required-reserve ratio for major banks.
(Updates with Treasury yields and economist comment in fifth and sixth paragraphs.)
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady Wednesday and signaled it will lift them more slowly than previously indicated because of a weak global environment and volatile stock market.
The Fed said in a statement said its rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave the central bank’s benchmark interest rate in a range of 0.25%-0.5%. The decision was widely expected.
The big change was in the Fed’s so-called “dot plot,” where officials penciled in only two quarter-point hikes this year, down from four in December.
“We continue to see risks,” Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said in a press conference after top officials met. But she also pointed out that “the U.S. economy has been very resilient in recent months.”
Just a few months ago, the Fed appeared ready to embark on a series of interest-rate increases after determining the economy was strong enough to handle it. Yet big losses in the stock market early in the year, slowing U.S. growth and fresh worries the global economy spurred the Fed to back off.
Financial markets don’t expect a rate hike before June.
More recently the U.S. economy seems to have stabilized, easing some of the Fed’s concerns. The central bank on Wednesday pointed to improved consumer spending, a stronger housing market and “strong job gains.”
Yet the Fed acknowledged that exports and business investment remain soft. Inflation is expected to remain on the low side this year, even though there are some signs that price pressures are building.
The Fed predicted its preferred PCE inflation gauge will end 2016 at 1.2%, down from a prior forecast of 1.6%. The bank wants to see inflation rise to the 2% level it considers a sign of a healthier economy.
”What the Fed is saying is that they are willing to tolerate some more inflation,” said John Canally, an economist and investment strategist at LPL Financial.
The FOMC vote was 9-1. Kansas City Fed President Esther George dissented in favor of a quarter-point rate increase.
JAKARTA. Sebagian besar analis yang terdaftar dalam konsensus Bloombergmemprediksi Fed Rate yang akan diumumkan besok, Kamis 17 Maret 2016 (dini hari) tidak akan berubah.
Rapat Fed Rate telah digelar per hari ini dimana akan dibahas penentuan suku bunga acuan Amerika Serikat. Sebelumnya, suku bunga acuan telah ditetapkan berada di level 0,5% pada 16 Desember 2015 setelah satu dasawarsa stagnan di level rendah.
Dari 98 analis AS yang terdaftar di konsensus Bloomberg, sebagian besar 96% atau 94 analis memperkirakan Fed Rate tidak akan berubah alias stagnan.
Hanya 4 analis yang memperkirakan bahwa Fed Rate akan naik 25 basis poin (bps) ke level 0,75%.
Rapat umum Fed Rate digelar selama dua hari sejak per hari ini dan akan diumumkan besok atau Kamis dinihari WIB.
per tgl 15 Mar 2016: Investing.com - The dollar remained broadly higher against the other major currencies on Monday, as investors continued to focus on the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meeting this week.
The single currency remained under pressure after the European Central Bank cut interest rates across the euro zone to new record lows and boosted its quantitative easing program last Thursday.
The ECB cut its benchmark interest rate to a record-low of zero from 0.05% and boosted its quantitative easing program by €20 billion per month to €80 billion, starting in April.
Investors were turning their attention to the outcome of Japanese and U.S. central bank policy meetings scheduled this week.
The Fed was not widely expected to raise interest rates at the conclusion of its meeting on Wednesday, given recent signs of weakness in the global economy
But the U.S. central bank was likely to signal that rates will rise fairly soon as long as U.S. inflation and jobs continue to strengthen.
The Bank of Japan was also expected to keep monetary policy unchanged when its meeting ends on Tuesday after its shock decision to adopt negative interest rates in January, which did little to weaken the yen.
The dollar was higher against the pound and the Swiss franc, with GBP/USD down 0.47% at 1.4316 and with USD/CHF advancing 0.42% to 0.9867.
Meanwhile, the Australian and New Zealand dollars were weaker, with AUD/USD down 0.79% at 0.7504 and with NZD/USD retreating 0.89% to 0.6684.
USD/CAD climbed 0.56% to 1.3289. The commodity-related loonie weakened as oil pricespulled back from three-month highs after Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said his country won't join a group production freeze until it doubles its post-sanctions output.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.43% at 96.64, pulling away from Friday’s one-month low of 95.94
Slow wage growth can’t be pinned only on labor market slack and inflation could remain in check for now
Wages have remained well below their longer-run average.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Slow wage growth since the Great Recession is not necessarily a sign of a weak labor market, but rather is due to special factors including higher-paid baby boomer retirement, according to new research released Monday by the San Francisco Federal Reserve.
The report suggests it could be a mistake for the Fed to wait for a pickup in wages before raising interest rates. In other words, the labor market may be stronger than it appears on the surface. But neither should policy makers jump to conclusions about inflation, which could remain in check for the near term.
Wages, or lack of thereof, have been a key puzzling factor in trying to pin down interest rate expectations. A decline in average hourly earnings was one negative in an otherwise solid job report for February released late last week.
Slow wages are often seen as a sign of low inflation and labor-market slack, two forces that allow the Fed to be patient in raising interest rates.
In fact, over the past two years, average wage growth across four separate measures of wages has been hovering around 2.25% for the past two years despite steady improvement in labor market conditions. That’s significantly below the 3.25% average wage growth from 1983 to 2015.
The findings, by Mary Daly, senior vice president and associate director of research at the San Francisco Fed, Bart Hobijn, a professor of economics at Arizona State University, and Benjamin Pyle, a research associate at the San Francisco Fed, found that special factors are holding down wages.
One factor is that low-wage workers are moving to full-time jobs. The vast majority of these new workers earn less than the typical full-time employee, so their entry pushes down the average wage, the researchers found.
In addition, the exit of higher-paid retirees have also pushed down wage growth. This “silver tsunami” is expected to be a drag on wage growth for some time.
“Correcting for worker composition changes, wages are consistent with a strong labor market that is drawing low-wage workers into full-time employment,” the study found.
Will this boost inflation? Not necessarily. As long as employers can keep their wage bills low, labor cost pressures for higher inflation could remain muted “for some time,” the researchers said.
However, if the lower-wage workers are less productive, companies may face a spike in their unit labor costs that they’ll presumably be forced to pass along in higher prices.
