20th-Century Recessions
There were 12 recessions in the 20th century. The Great Depression was technically two of the nation's worst recessions back-to-back.
1907
The "Panic of 1907" lasted from May 1907 to June 1908. It was caused by speculators' losses that spread to trust companies. These firms acted like banks but had lower reserves. Congress created the Federal Reserve System to prevent future collapses.1011
1929–38 (The Great Depression)
The biggest economic crisis in U.S. history was two closely related recessions.1213 The first downturn was from August 1929 to March 1933, with a record 12.9% contraction in 1932.14 The second downturn lasted from May 1937 to June 1938. Unemployment reached 24.9% in 1933 and remained in the double digits until WWII began.15
| Year | 1930 | 1931 | 1932 | 1933 | 1934 | 1935 | 1936 | 1937 | 1938 | 1939 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth Rate | -8.5% | -6.4% | -12.9% | -1.2% | 10.8% | 8.9% | 12.9% | 5.1% | -3.3% | 8.0% |
| Unemployment | 8.7% | 15.9% | 23.6% | 24.9% | 21.7% | 20.1% | 16.9% | 14.3% | 19.0% | 17.2% |
Several factors combined to create the Great Depression. The Fed raised interest rates in the spring of 1928 and continued despite the recession. The 1929 stock market crash destroyed businesses and life savings. A 10-year drought in the Midwest created the Dust Bowl that devastated farmers.16
The New Deal ended the first recession, boosting growth by 10.8%.17 The second recession ended when the drought did, and the government increased spending for World War II.18
1945
This recession lasted eight months, from February to October. It was a natural result of the demobilization from World War II.1920
1949
This 11-month recession began in November 1948 and lasted until October 1949, when unemployment peaked at 7.9%.1921 It was caused by the Fed raising interest rates too quickly.20
| GDP Growth | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1949 | -5.4% | -1.4% | 4.2% | -3.3% |
1953
This recession lasted 10 months, from July 1953 to May 1954.19 It resulted from tightened monetary policy following the Korean War.22 Unemployment didn't reach its peak of 6.1% until September 1954, four months after the recession ended. In 1953, GDP contracted by 2.2% in the third quarter and by 5.9% in Q4. In 1954, it contracted by 1.9% in the first quarter.2324
1957
In this recession, which took place from August 1957 to April 1958,19 GDP fell 4.1% in Q4 1957, then contracted to a low of 10.0% in Q1 1958.2 Unemployment didn't reach its peak of 7.5% until July 1958.25 The Fed's contractionary monetary policy caused this economic slowdown.26
1960
Starting in April 1960, this recession lasted 10 months until February 1961.19 GDP was -2.1% in Q2 1960, rose by 2.0% in Q3, but was down by 5.0% in Q4.24 Unemployment reached a peak of 7.1% in May 1961.27
President John F. Kennedy ended the 1960 recession with stimulus spending.28 His opponent, Richard Nixon, blamed the recession for costing him the election.29
1970
This recession was relatively mild, lasting 11 months—from December 1969 to November 1970.19 Unemployment peaked at 6.1% in December 1970.30 The economy contracted by 1.9% in Q4 1969 and by 0.6% in Q1 1970. GDP rose by 0.6% in Q2 1970 and 3.7% in Q3 but fell by 4.2% in Q4. The economy recovered in Q1 1971, increasing by 11.3%.24
1973-75
This recession lasted 16 months, from November 1973 to March 1975.19 The OPEC oil embargo is blamed for quadrupling oil prices, but actions taken by President Richard Nixon also contributed to the recession.
First, Nixon instituted wage-price controls. They kept prices too high, reducing demand. Wage controls made salaries too high and forced businesses to lay off workers. Second, Nixon took the United States off the gold standard in response to a run on the gold held at Fort Knox, which led to inflation. The price of gold skyrocketed while the dollar's value plummeted.3129
The result was stagflation and five quarters of negative GDP growth: 1973 Q3, -2.1%; 1974 Q1, -3.4%; Q3, -3.7%; Q4, -1.5%; and 1975 Q1, -4.8%. Unemployment reached a peak of 9.0% in May 1975, two months after the recession ended.3224
1980-82
The economy suffered a double whammy of two recessions in this period. There was one during the first six months of 1980. The second lasted 16 months, from July 1981 to November 1982.19 The Fed caused this recession by raising interest rates to combat inflation. That reduced business spending. The Iranian oil embargo aggravated economic conditions by reducing U.S. oil supplies, which drove prices up.3334
GDP was negative for six of the 12 quarters. The worst was Q2 1980 at -8.0%.24 Unemployment rose to 10.8% in November and December 1982. It was above 10% for 10 months.35
| GDP Growth | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1980 | 1.3% | -8.0% | -0.5% | 7.7% |
| 1981 | 8.1% | -2.9% | 4.9% | -4.3% |
| 1982 | -6.1% | 1.8% | -1.5% | 0.2% |
1990-91
This recession ran for nine months, from July 1990 to March 1991.19 It was caused by the 1989 savings and loan crisis, higher interest rates, and Iraq's invasion of Kuwait.36 GDP was -3.6% in Q4 1990 and -1.9% in Q1 1991.24 Unemployment peaked at 7.8% in June 1992.37
Recessions are easier tracked in hindsight. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) makes initial projections about Gross Domestic Product (GDP) early each quarter and then revises its GDP estimates as it receives new data, a process that usually takes place in July. It can be difficult to correct a recession once it's already started.2
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Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Pergerakan indeks dolar AS melemah pada perdagangan pagi ini, Kamis (25/1/2018), terbebani pernyataan Menteri Keuangan Amerika Serikat (AS) Steven Mnuchin bahwa pihaknya menyambut baik depresiasi mata uang.
Indeks dolar AS yang mengukur kekuatan kurs dolar AS terhadap sejumlah mata uang utama melemah 0,16% atau 0,145 poin ke level 89,061 pada pukul 10.11 WIB.
BACA JUGA :
Sebelumnya indeks dolar dibuka dengan kenaikan 0,077 poin atau 0,09% di level 89,283, setelah pada perdagangan Rabu (24/1) berakhir melorot 1,02% atau 0,918 poin di posisi 89,206.
Dilansir Reuters, dolar melemah setelah Mnuchin kepada World Economic Forum di Davos pada hari Rabu (24/1) menyatakan bahwa kinerja dolar yang lebih lemah adalah sesuatu hal yang baik karena berkaitan dengan perdagangan dan peluang.
Komentar Mnuchin tersebut pun dilihat oleh pasar sebagai keberangkatan dari kebijakan mata uang AS yang tradisional.
Kinerja greenback sebelumnya telah berupaya defensif terhadap kekhawatiran proteksionisme perdagangan yang dipicu keputusan Presiden Donald Trump untuk mengenakan tarif bea masuk terhadap impor mesin cuci dan panel surya awal pekan ini.
“Pekan lalu dolar tertekan ekspektasi terhadap normalisasi kebijakan moneter European Central Bank dan Bank of Japan, namun tren bearish telah memasuki fase yang sama sekali baru setelah Mnuchin menyampaikan pernyataannya,” kata Yukio Ishizuki, senior currency strategist di Daiwa Securities, Tokyo, seperti dikutip dari Reuters.
Seiring pelemahan dolar AS, nilai tukar yen terpantau lanjut menguat 0,12% atau 0,13 poin ke 109,09 per dolar AS, setelah pada perdagangan Rabu (24/1) berakhir menguat 0,98% atau 1,08 poin di posisi 109,22.
Sementara itu, kinerja mata uang euro lanjut menguat menjelang pengumuman keputusan kebijakan European Central Bank (ECB). Pasar akan mencermati kebijakan ECB hari ini waktu setempat demi memperoleh tanda-tanda apakah bank sentral Eropa tersebut mengkhawatirkan apresiasi euro.
“Beberapa pelaku pasar cenderung meringankan posisi euro mereka jika ECB menunjukkan kekhawatiran tentang penguatan mata uang tersebut. Namun, komentar semacam itu mungkin tidak akan cukup untuk menghentikan pelemahan dolar yang sedang berlangsung,” tambah Ishizuki.
Nilai tukar mata uang euro hari ini terpantau lanjut menguat 0,15% ke US$1,2426 pada pukul 10.23 WIB, setelah pada perdagangan Rabu (24/1) ditutup dengan penguatan 0,89% di posisi 1,2408.
Posisi indeks dolar AS
25/1/2018
(Pk. 10.11 WIB)
|
89,061
(-0,16%)
|
24/1/2018
|
89,206
(-1,02%)
|
23/1/2018
|
90,124
(-0,31%)
|
22/1/2018
|
90,401
(-0,19%)
|
19/1/2018
|
90,572
(+0,08%)
|
Sumber: Bloomberg
WASHINGTON - Perekonomian Amerika Serikat di bawah pemerintahan Donald Trump tumbuh lebih cepat dari perkiraan semula. Melansir dari Reuters, Rabu (29/11/2017), Departemen Perdagangan AS mengumumkan perekonomian AS pada kuartal III 2017 meningkat menjadi 3,3%. Ini lebih tinggi dari perkiraan ekonom yang disurvei Reuters, yang menyebut pertumbuhan Produk Domestik Bruto AS di kuartal III 2017 sebesar 3,2%.
Menurut Departemen Perdagangan AS, pertumbuhan ekonomi tersebut merupakan laju tercepat sejak kuartal III 2014. Adapun perekonomian AS pada kuartal II 2017 (Juli-September) mencapai 3,0%. Departemen Perdagangan menambahkan ini merupakan pertama kalinya sejak 2014, ekonomi Amerika mengalami pertumbuhan 3% selama dua kuartal berturut-turut.
Belanja konsumen menyumbang 2,3% pada kuartal III, angka ini lebih rendah dari kuartal II sebesar 3,3%. Melambatnya belanja konsumen disebabkan dampak dari Badai Harvey dan Irma yang melanda Texas dan Florida pada awal Agustus dan September 2017. Sementara itu, pertumbuhan investasi bidang bisnis meningkat menjadi 10,4%, laju pertumbuhan tercepat dalam tiga tahun.
Sebelumnya, banyak kalangan skeptis terhadap pemulihan ekonomi AS sejak resesi 2007-2009. Pertumbuhan ekonomi AS yang ciamik ini tidak lepas dari peranan Presiden Donald Trump dan rekan-rekan Partai Republik di Kongres untuk mendorong paket pemotongan pajak yang lebih luas, dengan mengurangi tingkat pajak penghasilan perusahaan dari sebelumnya 35% menjadi 20%. Trump menginginkan pajak yang lebih rendah demi mengangkat pertumbuhan PDB tahunan menjadi lebih dari 3% secara berkelanjutan.
(ven)
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WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A measure of U.S. manufacturing activity surged to a near 13-1/2-year high in September as disruptions to the supply chains caused by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma resulted in factories taking longer to deliver goods and boosted raw material prices.
Still, details of the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) survey on Monday underscored the economy’s underlying momentum, with factories reporting stronger order growth last month. A measure of factory employment hit its highest level since 2011.
“Much of the gain is presumably linked to the aftereffects of the hurricanes. Nonetheless, manufacturing growth is strong,” said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics in New York.
ISM said its index of national factory activity surged to a reading of 60.8 last month, the highest reading since May 2004, from 58.8 in August. A reading above 50 in the ISM index indicates an expansion in manufacturing, which accounts for about 12 percent of the U.S. economy.
The ISM said Harvey and Irma had caused supply chain and pricing issues in the chemical products sector. There were also concerns about the disruptive impact of the storms on the food, beverage and tobacco products industries.
Manufacturers of nonmetallic mineral products said while the storms were boosting sales, they were also causing significant price increases on input raw materials.
As a result, the ISM’s supplier deliveries sub-index soared 7.3 points to 64.4 last month. A lengthening in suppliers’ delivery time is normally associated with increased activity, which is a positive contribution to the ISM index.
The survey’s prices paid sub-index vaulted 9.5 points to 71.5, the highest reading since May 2011.
Discounting the hurricanes’ impact, the outlook for manufacturing remains bullish. Seventeen out of the 18 manufacturing industries reported growth last month.
The ISM survey’s production sub-index rose 1.2 points to a reading of 62.2 in September and a gauge of new orders jumped to 64.6 in September from 60.3 in August.
LOW INVENTORIES
Factories also reported that customers’ inventories remained at levels considered “too low” last month. The ISM said this was an indication that “downstream customers continue to operate at a high level of demand that production cannot fully satisfy.”
The ISM said its measure of factory employment increased 0.4 point to 60.3, the highest since June 2011.
U.S. financial markets viewed the data as supportive of an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve in December. The U.S. central bank has increased borrowing costs twice this year.
The dollar firmed against a basket of currencies, while prices for U.S. Treasuries were largely unchanged. Stocks on Wall Street hovered near record highs.
“While this is survey sentiment data rather than harder manufacturing production data, it does indicate the economic expansion is very much intact despite the short-term disruptions due to the hurricanes,” said Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West in San Francisco.
Harvey and Irma are expected to chop off as much as six-tenths of a percentage point from gross domestic product growth in the third quarter. Harvey, which pummeled Texas at the end of August, has undercut consumer spending and weighed on industrial production, homebuilding and home sales.
Further weakness is likely after Irma struck Florida in early September, causing widespread power cuts. The economy grew at a 3.1 percent annualized rate in the second quarter.
In separate report on Monday, the Commerce Department said construction spending rose 0.5 percent as outlays for both private and public projects increased, ending two straight monthly declines. Construction spending advanced 2.5 percent on a year-on-year basis.
The government said Harvey and Irma did not appear to have impacted the construction spending data as the responses from the Texas and Florida areas affected by the storms were “not significantly lower than normal.”
September data could, however, be impacted. According to the Commerce Department, Texas and Florida accounted for 22 percent of U.S. private nonresidential construction spending in 2016. They made up 15 percent of U.S. state-and-locally owned construction spending in 2016.
Reporting By Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci
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Liputan6.com, New York Wall Street mencetak rekor pada penutupan perdagangan di akhir pekan, dengan indeks S&P 500 melampaui 2.500 poin terpicu kenaikan saham telekomunikasi dan teknologi yang menguat kembali usai dua hari melemah.
Melansir laman Reuters, Dow Jones Industrial Average naik 0,29 persen menjadi 22.268,34 poin. Sementara indeks S&P 500 menguat 0,18 persen ke posisi 2.500,23. Adapun indeks Nasdaq Composite bertambah 0,3 persen menjadi 6.448,47.
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Indeks S & P 500 kembali mencapai posisi 2.500, usai sekitar empat bulan ditutup di atas 2.400. Ini membuat indeks ini menguat hampir 12 persen di 2017.
"Orang-orang khawatir kehilangan karena pasar terus melaju. Mereka pikir mungkin akhirnya perlu melompat masuk. Perilaku investor ritel lebih penting dari sebelumnya," ujar Phil Blancato, Kepala Ladenburg Thalmann Asset Management di New York.
Pendorong kenaikan indeks S & P 500 antara lain sektor teknologi informasi seperti saham produsen chip Nvidia yang naik 0,30 persen. Kemudian saham Apple yang naik 1,01 persen. Ini menjadi kenaikan pertamanya sejak mengumumkan iPhone baru pada hari Selasa.
Wall Street kali ini, sebagian besar mengabaikan laporan yang menunjukkan penurunan yang tak terduga pada penjualan ritel AS di bulan lalu dan penurunan pertama output industri sejak Januari, keduanya sebagian disebabkan oleh dampak Badai Harvey.
"Investor mengawasi data penjualan ritel, berpikir itu mungkin bersifat sementara, dan berfokus pada area pertumbuhan seperti teknologi, yang sebagian besar kebal terhadap keputusan kebijakan di DC dan telah menghindari semua kebisingan global," kata Michael Antonelli, Managing Director perdagangan penjualan institusional di Robert W. Baird di Milwaukee.
Sekitar 8,5 miliar saham berpindah tangan di bursa AS, di atas rata-rata 20 hari sebesar 5,9 miliar saham.
NEW YORK - Indeks S&P 500 ditutup melonjak lebih dari 1% ke rekor tertingginya, seiring dengan badai tropis Irma yang menyebabkan kerusakan lebih sedikit, daripada yang diperkirakan di Florida. Selain itu, Korea Utara tidak melakukan rudal uji coba selama akhir pekan seperti yang sebelumnya.
Seluruh sektor dari 11 sektor di indeks S&P 500 utama naik, dipimpin oleh saham keuangan, dengan perusahaan asuransi mengalami keuntungan paling besar. Badai Irma, yang pernah menjadi sebagai salah satu badai paling kuat yang tercatat di Atlantik, nampaknya telah kehilangan kekuatan.
BERITA REKOMENDASI
Irma menyebabkan banjir parah di banyak kota di Florida dan menyebabkan lebih dari 6 juta rumah dan bisnis lumpuh, namun kerusakan tersebut tampaknya kurang dari yang diharapkan. Di sisi lain, Ketegangan geopolitik mereda setelah Korea Utara tidak meluncurkan rudal jarak jauh lainnya.
Indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average .JJI naik 1,19% menjadi 22.057,37 dan mengalami kenaikan satu hari terbesar sejak Februari. Indeks S&P 500 .SPX menguat 1,08% menjadi 2.488,11 dan indeks Nasdaq Composite .IXIC melaju 1,13% menjadi 6.432,26.
Indeks sektor keuangan S&P 500.SPSY melonjak 1,74%, dengan JPMorgan (JPM.N) naik 2,18% dan perusahaan asuransi Travelers (TRV.N) naik 2,34%.
Sejauh ini, indeks S&P 500 telah meningkat 10%. Indeks ini diperdagangkan mendekati 17,6 kali pendapatan yang diharapkan, dibandingkan dengan rata-rata 10 tahun di 14,3.
(mrt)
Summary the Guardian
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Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Bursa saham AS ditutup menguat pada perdagangan Rabu (19/7/2017), didorong oleh sektor teknologi.
Indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average ditutup menguat 66,02 poin atau 0,31% ke level 21.640,75, sedangkan indeks Standard & Poor’s 500 naik 13,22 poin atau 0,54% ke level 2.473,83 dan Nasdaq Composite menguat 40,74 poin atau 0,64% ke 6.385,04.
Ketiga indeks tersebut mencatatkan rekor tertinggi sepanjang masa.
Sektor teknologi indeks S&P memecahkan rekor penutupan tertinggi yang sebelumnya dicapai pada Maret 2000. Sektor ini mencatatkan kinerja terbaik tahun ini dengan kenaikan 22,8%.
Saham Vertex melonjak sebanyak 26,4% ke titik tertinggi sepanjang masa, sehari setelah melaporkan kinerja positif pada unit pengobatan kistik fibrosisnya. Saham tersebut ditutup menguat 20,8% dan menjadi pendorong terbesar indeks S&P dan Nasdaq.
Di sisi lain, saham IBM menahan penguatan indeks Dow dengan ditutup melemah 4,2% setelah pendapatan kuartalannya tidak mencapai ekspektasi.
Sementara itu, Federal Reserve wilayah Atlanta menaikkan perkiraan PDB kuartal kedua ke tingkat tahunan 2,5% setelah data menunjukkan pembangunan rumah di AS melonjak ke level tertinggi empat bulan di bulan Juni.
"Pasar berfokus pada fundamental, dan kinerja emiten serta ekonomi mendasari pergerakan saham," kata Quincy Krosby, kepala analis Prudential Financial, seperti dikutip Bloomberg.
Menurut Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, analis memperkirakan laba kuartal kedua pada emiten di indeks S&P 500 menguat sebesar 8,8%, sedangkan pendapatan diperkirakan naik 6% dari tahun sebelumnya.
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Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Presiden Amerika Serikat (AS) Donald Trump akan menguraikan visinya untuk rencana infrastruktur, yang mencakup hibah federal ke daerah perdesaan dan negara bagian demi menciptakan dana tambahan untuk proyek-proyek.
Dilansir Bloomberg, Rabu (7/6/2017), Trump dijadwalkan berpidato di Cincinnati pada hari ini waktu setempat. Langkah itu disebut sebagai bagian dari upaya selama sepekan penuh untuk secara resmi meluncurkan inisiatif program investasi infrastruktur senilai US$1 triliun yang telah dijanjikannya.
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Nilai investasi infrastruktur tersebut direncanakan untuk memperbaiki jalan, jembatan, bandara, dan aset lainnya yang rusak.
Trump mengusulkan untuk mengalokasikan US$200 miliar dalam dana federal selama 10 tahun untuk memacu setidaknya tambahan belanja senilai US$800 miliar oleh negara bagian, pemerintah kota, dan sektor swasta. Dana federal tersebut akan terbagi menjadi empat kategori, yakni:
- Gabungan hibah dan pinjaman untuk proyek-proyek transformatif, dengan proposal Trump untuk menempatkan sistem kontrol lalu lintas udara AS di bawah perusahaan swasta nirlaba, sebagai contoh.
- Hibah ke daerah-daerah perdesaan untuk memperbaiki jembatan, jalan, dan saluran air. Kritik terhadap pendekatan Trump telah menimbulkan kekhawatiran bahwa daerah perdesaan tidak dapat menggunakan tarif atau biaya yang diperlukan untuk menarik investasi swasta.
- Program pinjaman yang disempurnakan, dengan Undang-Undang Inovasi dan Keuangan Infrastruktur Transportasi, atau TIFIA, sebagai contoh bagaimana dana federal dapat digunakan dengan dana negara bagian, lokal, dan swasta untuk mendanai proyek-proyek.
- Program insentif dengan hibah ke negara bagian dan kota demi menciptakan dana tambahan untuk infrastruktur.
Berdasarkan preview pidato Trump yang disiapkan oleh Gedung Putih, Presiden Trump bertujuan untuk memberi kesempatan kepada negara bagian dan daerah untuk memenuhi kebutuhan infrastruktur kritis mereka sendiri serta berkolaborasi dengan perusahaan swasta jika diperlukan.
Trump belum merinci sumber dana senilai US$200 miliar itu maupun menjabarkan pengeluaran. Pemerintah AS mengatakan paket legislatif penuh dapat tersedia pada kuartal ketiga.
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Washington detik - Pertumbuhan ekonomi Amerika Serikat (AS) kuartal I-2017 melambat. Produk domestik bruto (PDB) AS kuartal I 2017 tercatat 0,7% lebih rendah dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya 1,2%.
Sejumlah ekonom menyebut, lemahnya pertumbuhan ini menjadi pukulan keras untuk Presiden AS Donald Trump yang berambisi untuk mendongkrak pertumbuhan ekonomi ke level 4%. Untuk mencapai target tersebut, Trump memiliki sejumlah strategi seperti pemotongan pajak korporasi dan indvidu.
Kepala Ekonom Bank of The West San Fransisco, Scott Anderson mengatakan, ini merupakan kinerja terburuk Amerika dalam waktu satu tahun. Padahal, menurut dia, kuartal IV tahun lalu pertumbuhan sudah mencapai 2,1%.
"Indikator ekonomi AS belum tentu bisa meyakinkan adanya pertumbuhan pada kuartal II, banyak hal yang harus dilakukan untuk mengembalikan geliat pertumbuhan ini," ujar Scott, dikutip dari Reuters, Sabtu (27/5/2017)
Sebelumnya, Amerika sempat memasang target pertumbuhan 3%, angka ini dinilai lebih realistis dari ambisi Trump. Karena, para analis mengungkapkan stimulus fiskal yang diberikan Trump bisa mempengaruhi produktivitas dan menyebabkan kekurangan pada tenaga kerja di sejumlah daerah.
"Jika ekonomi tumbuh 3%, maka bisnis bisa jauh lebih baik dan tidak perlu mengeluarkan banyak uang untuk membeli barang modal," ujar Kepala Ekonom Naroff Economic Advisor Holland, Pennsylvania.
Kelesuan ekonomi AS sebenarnya tidak mencerminkan kesehatan sebuah negara yang sebenarnya. PDB kuartal pertama yang memiliki kinerja buruk karena masih ada perhitungan data yang sedang diselesaikan oleh pemerintah.
Kuartal berikutnya, ekonom memproyeksikan pertumbuhan bisa mencapai 0,9%. Kemudian juga akan ada kenaikan suku bunga bulan depan oleh The Federal Reserve. (hns/hns)
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dw.com: After peaking last year with a record of 17.55 million cars sold throughout 2016 in the United States, the American car boom is coming to an end with a bang.
The big three American automakers on Tuesday all reported falling sales in April, compared to the same period last year. Industry analysts had expected the retreat - forecasting an industry-wide decline of between one and four percent - but the real figures surprised many.
General Motors (GM), the biggest US automaker, saw its sales drop 5.8 percent from April 2016, while Ford sales fell 7.2 percent. FCA US, the North American arm of Fiat Chrysler, even dropped seven percent.
Toyota saw a decline of 4.4 percent in the US market year-over-year, while Germany's Volkswagen (VW) was still suffering from its diesel emissions scandal in the US, barely making up a massive loss a year ago with a small gain of 1.6 percent in April.
Huge incentives
It was the fourth straight month of decline for the industry, which Automotive News characterized as "the longest losing streak since the market bottomed out in 2009."
Sales to consumers at car lots - rather than corporate, government and rental fleet sales - accounted for a big part of the downward slide at most companies. Even Americans' love affair with sport utility vehicles and light trucks could not compensate for the decline.
Industry analyst Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds said the market was starting to see "the slowdown in 2017 we've been anticipating," adding: "The industry has been holding its breath to see if the days of peak sales are over."
In April, car sellers relied on incentives and discounting to lure customers into dealership lots, offering average incentives of $3,814 per new vehicle - up 13 percent, according to a joint analysis by JD Power and LMC Automotive.
Yet, the US car industry is still selling a lot of vehicles. GM touted double-digit spikes in sales of crossover vehicles, with Chevrolet and GMC models up 20 percent or more, and Buick and GMC models seeing increases in the 40 percent range.
FCA US was down across all of its brands, except Ram trucks which saw sales rise five percent. Ford's bright spot was SUVs, with a 1.2 percent gain, while the company's total car sales plunged 21.2 percent. Toyota SUV sales rose 12.9 percent.
uhe/kd (Reuters, AFP, dpa)
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Bisnis.com, JAKARTA- Pertumbuhan upah kerja Amerika Serikat mengalami perlambatan, tapi tingkat pengangguran menunjukkan penurunan paling besar dalam sepuluh tahun terakhir.
Kondisi itu disebut sebagai indikasi membaiknya keberlanjutan pasar tenaga kerja Negeri Paman Sam. Seperti dilansir Bloomberg
Kementerian Tenaga Kerja AS mengungkapkan tingkat pengangguran turun dari 4,7% menjadi 4,5% sedangkan pertumbuhan upah kerja melambat menjadi 2,7% secara year-on-year (yoy) pada Maret 2017.
Meskipun angka upah kerja bulan lalu menjadi yang terendah sejak Mei 2016 dan berbanding terbalik dengan kondisi Januari-Februari 2017, tapi hal ini dipandang sebagai tanda-tanda kembalinya pasar tenaga kerja AS ke situasi normal.
Tingkat penyerapan tenaga kerja disebut berada di level sehat sehingga memberi dorongan positif bagi bank sentral AS The Fed untuk mengerek suku bunga pada Maret dan kemungkinan dua kali kenaikan lagi tahun ini.
Chief Economist Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC Stephen Stanley mengatakan melambatnya kenaikan upah tidak serta merta menggambarkan pelemahan pasar tenaga kerja.
"Kemungkinan lebih karena terbatasnya pasokan dibanding berkurangnya permintaan," terang dia seperti dikutip Bloomberg, Sabtu (8/4/2017).
Kenaikan upah Maret dibandingkan dengan rata-rata 2016 yang sebesar 187.000 per bulan, lebih tinggi daripada perkiraan analis yang memproyeksi turun menjadi 181.000 pada tahun ini. Secara rata-rata, pada kuartal I/2017 kenaikannya sebesar 178.000 per bulan.
Seperti diketahui, Presiden AS Donald Trump telah menargetkan penambahan 25 juta pekerjaan dalam satu dekade ke depan. Jika dihitung, diperlukan 208.000 pekerjaan baru tiap bulan atau 2,5 juta posisi per tahun untuk mencapai sasaran tersebut. (AMA)
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The U.S. grew slightly faster at a 2.1% pace in the fourth quarter and corporate profits continued to rebound, according to a fresh look at how the economy performed at the end of 2016.
Gross domestic product, the official scorecard for the economy, was a bit stronger than the previously reported 1.9% annual rate owing to higher spending on gasoline and travel-related services, the government said Thursday.
Consumer spending was raised to a 3.5% from 3%, largely accounting for the revision to fourth-quarter GDP. Most other figures in the report were little-changed.
More good news came by way of another increase in corporate profits—the third in four quarters.
Adjusted-pretax profits rose at a 0.5% annual pace in the fourth quarter after a nearly 6% gain in the third quarter, the Commerce Department said. Profit figures are adjusted for depreciation and the value of inventories.
For all of 2016 pretax earnings actually fell 0.1%, but they improved rapidly in the second half of the year.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.02% was set to open lower.
In 2015, corporate profits tumbled 3.1% to mark the first decline since the 2007-09 recession. Companies were beset by a weak global economy and a strong dollar that curbed imports. Key industries such as energy and agriculture also took a hit amid a broad decline in commodity prices.
Last year profits revived as the world economy improved, commodity prices stabilized and companies took extra step to reduce costs.
Higher profits are a good sign for the economy, suggesting that businesses can hire and spend more. Many companies are hopeful in early 2017 that a pro-business Trump White House will ease regulatory burdens and take other steps to provide relief, giving them further impetus to expand.
Early signs in 2017 point to an increase in business investment, a development that could put a bit more wind at the back of a U.S. economy constrained to 2% annual growth since it exited the recent recession.
In the fourth quarter, businesses increased spending on equipment by 1.9%, while a previously reported 4.5% decline in outlays on office buildings and other structures was trimmed to just 1.9%.
The value of inventories was revised to show a $49.6 billion increase vs. a prior $46.2 billion estimate.
Other changes:
— Exports were revised to a 4.5% decline from 4%;
—Imports were revised to a 9% increase from 8.5%;
—Government spending was lowered to a 0.2% increase from 0.4%;
— And inflation as measured by the PCE index was raised to a 2% annual rate from 1.9%.
For all of 2016 the U.S. grew 1.6%, down from a 2.6% in 2015. The last time the U.S. topped 3% growth—the historical average is 3.3%—was in 2015.
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Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Bursa saham AS ditutup menguat pada perdagangan Rabu (19/7/2017), didorong oleh sektor teknologi.
Indeks Dow Jones Industrial Average ditutup menguat 66,02 poin atau 0,31% ke level 21.640,75, sedangkan indeks Standard & Poor’s 500 naik 13,22 poin atau 0,54% ke level 2.473,83 dan Nasdaq Composite menguat 40,74 poin atau 0,64% ke 6.385,04.
Ketiga indeks tersebut mencatatkan rekor tertinggi sepanjang masa.
Sektor teknologi indeks S&P memecahkan rekor penutupan tertinggi yang sebelumnya dicapai pada Maret 2000. Sektor ini mencatatkan kinerja terbaik tahun ini dengan kenaikan 22,8%.
Saham Vertex melonjak sebanyak 26,4% ke titik tertinggi sepanjang masa, sehari setelah melaporkan kinerja positif pada unit pengobatan kistik fibrosisnya. Saham tersebut ditutup menguat 20,8% dan menjadi pendorong terbesar indeks S&P dan Nasdaq.
Di sisi lain, saham IBM menahan penguatan indeks Dow dengan ditutup melemah 4,2% setelah pendapatan kuartalannya tidak mencapai ekspektasi.
Sementara itu, Federal Reserve wilayah Atlanta menaikkan perkiraan PDB kuartal kedua ke tingkat tahunan 2,5% setelah data menunjukkan pembangunan rumah di AS melonjak ke level tertinggi empat bulan di bulan Juni.
"Pasar berfokus pada fundamental, dan kinerja emiten serta ekonomi mendasari pergerakan saham," kata Quincy Krosby, kepala analis Prudential Financial, seperti dikutip Bloomberg.
Menurut Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, analis memperkirakan laba kuartal kedua pada emiten di indeks S&P 500 menguat sebesar 8,8%, sedangkan pendapatan diperkirakan naik 6% dari tahun sebelumnya.
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Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Presiden Amerika Serikat (AS) Donald Trump akan menguraikan visinya untuk rencana infrastruktur, yang mencakup hibah federal ke daerah perdesaan dan negara bagian demi menciptakan dana tambahan untuk proyek-proyek.
Dilansir Bloomberg, Rabu (7/6/2017), Trump dijadwalkan berpidato di Cincinnati pada hari ini waktu setempat. Langkah itu disebut sebagai bagian dari upaya selama sepekan penuh untuk secara resmi meluncurkan inisiatif program investasi infrastruktur senilai US$1 triliun yang telah dijanjikannya.
BACA JUGA :
Bank Dunia: Fundamental Ekonomi RI Kuat
Sri Mulyani Yakin Ekonomi Indonesia 2017 Positif
Nilai investasi infrastruktur tersebut direncanakan untuk memperbaiki jalan, jembatan, bandara, dan aset lainnya yang rusak.
Trump mengusulkan untuk mengalokasikan US$200 miliar dalam dana federal selama 10 tahun untuk memacu setidaknya tambahan belanja senilai US$800 miliar oleh negara bagian, pemerintah kota, dan sektor swasta. Dana federal tersebut akan terbagi menjadi empat kategori, yakni:
- Gabungan hibah dan pinjaman untuk proyek-proyek transformatif, dengan proposal Trump untuk menempatkan sistem kontrol lalu lintas udara AS di bawah perusahaan swasta nirlaba, sebagai contoh.
- Hibah ke daerah-daerah perdesaan untuk memperbaiki jembatan, jalan, dan saluran air. Kritik terhadap pendekatan Trump telah menimbulkan kekhawatiran bahwa daerah perdesaan tidak dapat menggunakan tarif atau biaya yang diperlukan untuk menarik investasi swasta.
- Program pinjaman yang disempurnakan, dengan Undang-Undang Inovasi dan Keuangan Infrastruktur Transportasi, atau TIFIA, sebagai contoh bagaimana dana federal dapat digunakan dengan dana negara bagian, lokal, dan swasta untuk mendanai proyek-proyek.
- Program insentif dengan hibah ke negara bagian dan kota demi menciptakan dana tambahan untuk infrastruktur.
Berdasarkan preview pidato Trump yang disiapkan oleh Gedung Putih, Presiden Trump bertujuan untuk memberi kesempatan kepada negara bagian dan daerah untuk memenuhi kebutuhan infrastruktur kritis mereka sendiri serta berkolaborasi dengan perusahaan swasta jika diperlukan.
Trump belum merinci sumber dana senilai US$200 miliar itu maupun menjabarkan pengeluaran. Pemerintah AS mengatakan paket legislatif penuh dapat tersedia pada kuartal ketiga.
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Washington detik - Pertumbuhan ekonomi Amerika Serikat (AS) kuartal I-2017 melambat. Produk domestik bruto (PDB) AS kuartal I 2017 tercatat 0,7% lebih rendah dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya 1,2%.Sejumlah ekonom menyebut, lemahnya pertumbuhan ini menjadi pukulan keras untuk Presiden AS Donald Trump yang berambisi untuk mendongkrak pertumbuhan ekonomi ke level 4%. Untuk mencapai target tersebut, Trump memiliki sejumlah strategi seperti pemotongan pajak korporasi dan indvidu.
Kepala Ekonom Bank of The West San Fransisco, Scott Anderson mengatakan, ini merupakan kinerja terburuk Amerika dalam waktu satu tahun. Padahal, menurut dia, kuartal IV tahun lalu pertumbuhan sudah mencapai 2,1%.
"Indikator ekonomi AS belum tentu bisa meyakinkan adanya pertumbuhan pada kuartal II, banyak hal yang harus dilakukan untuk mengembalikan geliat pertumbuhan ini," ujar Scott, dikutip dari Reuters, Sabtu (27/5/2017)
Sebelumnya, Amerika sempat memasang target pertumbuhan 3%, angka ini dinilai lebih realistis dari ambisi Trump. Karena, para analis mengungkapkan stimulus fiskal yang diberikan Trump bisa mempengaruhi produktivitas dan menyebabkan kekurangan pada tenaga kerja di sejumlah daerah.
"Jika ekonomi tumbuh 3%, maka bisnis bisa jauh lebih baik dan tidak perlu mengeluarkan banyak uang untuk membeli barang modal," ujar Kepala Ekonom Naroff Economic Advisor Holland, Pennsylvania.
Kelesuan ekonomi AS sebenarnya tidak mencerminkan kesehatan sebuah negara yang sebenarnya. PDB kuartal pertama yang memiliki kinerja buruk karena masih ada perhitungan data yang sedang diselesaikan oleh pemerintah.
Kuartal berikutnya, ekonom memproyeksikan pertumbuhan bisa mencapai 0,9%. Kemudian juga akan ada kenaikan suku bunga bulan depan oleh The Federal Reserve. (hns/hns)
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The big three American automakers on Tuesday all reported falling sales in April, compared to the same period last year. Industry analysts had expected the retreat - forecasting an industry-wide decline of between one and four percent - but the real figures surprised many.
General Motors (GM), the biggest US automaker, saw its sales drop 5.8 percent from April 2016, while Ford sales fell 7.2 percent. FCA US, the North American arm of Fiat Chrysler, even dropped seven percent.
Toyota saw a decline of 4.4 percent in the US market year-over-year, while Germany's Volkswagen (VW) was still suffering from its diesel emissions scandal in the US, barely making up a massive loss a year ago with a small gain of 1.6 percent in April.
Huge incentives
It was the fourth straight month of decline for the industry, which Automotive News characterized as "the longest losing streak since the market bottomed out in 2009."
Sales to consumers at car lots - rather than corporate, government and rental fleet sales - accounted for a big part of the downward slide at most companies. Even Americans' love affair with sport utility vehicles and light trucks could not compensate for the decline.
Industry analyst Jessica Caldwell of Edmunds said the market was starting to see "the slowdown in 2017 we've been anticipating," adding: "The industry has been holding its breath to see if the days of peak sales are over."
In April, car sellers relied on incentives and discounting to lure customers into dealership lots, offering average incentives of $3,814 per new vehicle - up 13 percent, according to a joint analysis by JD Power and LMC Automotive.
Yet, the US car industry is still selling a lot of vehicles. GM touted double-digit spikes in sales of crossover vehicles, with Chevrolet and GMC models up 20 percent or more, and Buick and GMC models seeing increases in the 40 percent range.
FCA US was down across all of its brands, except Ram trucks which saw sales rise five percent. Ford's bright spot was SUVs, with a 1.2 percent gain, while the company's total car sales plunged 21.2 percent. Toyota SUV sales rose 12.9 percent.
uhe/kd (Reuters, AFP, dpa)
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Bisnis.com, JAKARTA- Pertumbuhan upah kerja Amerika Serikat mengalami perlambatan, tapi tingkat pengangguran menunjukkan penurunan paling besar dalam sepuluh tahun terakhir.
Kondisi itu disebut sebagai indikasi membaiknya keberlanjutan pasar tenaga kerja Negeri Paman Sam. Seperti dilansir Bloomberg
Kementerian Tenaga Kerja AS mengungkapkan tingkat pengangguran turun dari 4,7% menjadi 4,5% sedangkan pertumbuhan upah kerja melambat menjadi 2,7% secara year-on-year (yoy) pada Maret 2017.
Meskipun angka upah kerja bulan lalu menjadi yang terendah sejak Mei 2016 dan berbanding terbalik dengan kondisi Januari-Februari 2017, tapi hal ini dipandang sebagai tanda-tanda kembalinya pasar tenaga kerja AS ke situasi normal.
Tingkat penyerapan tenaga kerja disebut berada di level sehat sehingga memberi dorongan positif bagi bank sentral AS The Fed untuk mengerek suku bunga pada Maret dan kemungkinan dua kali kenaikan lagi tahun ini.
Chief Economist Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC Stephen Stanley mengatakan melambatnya kenaikan upah tidak serta merta menggambarkan pelemahan pasar tenaga kerja.
"Kemungkinan lebih karena terbatasnya pasokan dibanding berkurangnya permintaan," terang dia seperti dikutip Bloomberg, Sabtu (8/4/2017).
Kenaikan upah Maret dibandingkan dengan rata-rata 2016 yang sebesar 187.000 per bulan, lebih tinggi daripada perkiraan analis yang memproyeksi turun menjadi 181.000 pada tahun ini. Secara rata-rata, pada kuartal I/2017 kenaikannya sebesar 178.000 per bulan.
Seperti diketahui, Presiden AS Donald Trump telah menargetkan penambahan 25 juta pekerjaan dalam satu dekade ke depan. Jika dihitung, diperlukan 208.000 pekerjaan baru tiap bulan atau 2,5 juta posisi per tahun untuk mencapai sasaran tersebut. (AMA)
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The U.S. grew slightly faster at a 2.1% pace in the fourth quarter and corporate profits continued to rebound, according to a fresh look at how the economy performed at the end of 2016.
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reuters: By Lucia Mutikani | WASHINGTON
The U.S. trade deficit jumped to a near five-year high in January as rising oil prices helped to push up the import bill, pointing to slower economic growth in the first quarter and posing a challenge for the Trump administration.
President Donald Trump took office with a pledge to boost annual economic growth to 4 percent and renegotiate trade deals in favor of the United States. Trump blames U.S. trade policy for the loss of American factory jobs and the import-driven surge in the trade gap could intensify the debate on a cross-border tax.
"Team Trump really has their work cut out for them if they are going to stick with the campaign pledge to double growth," said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York. "If it is not made in America then we don't want it is what the Trump administration is saying."
The Commerce Department said on Tuesday the trade gap increased 9.6 percent to $48.5 billion, also buoyed by imports of cell phones and automobiles. That was the highest level since March 2012. When adjusted for inflation, the trade deficit rose to $65.3 billion from $62.0 billion in December.
Both the inflation-adjusted imports and exports were the highest on record in January, signs of improving domestic demand and stronger economic growth among U.S. trading partners. Nevertheless, the wider trade deficit suggests trade could again weigh on economic growth in the first quarter.
Data such as housing starts, consumer spending and construction outlays have implied the economy struggled to regain momentum early in the first quarter after growth slowed to a 1.9 percent annualized rate in the final three months of 2016.
Trade cut 1.7 percentage points from gross domestic product in the fourth quarter. Following the trade data, the Atlanta Federal Reserve slashed its first-quarter GDP estimate by five-tenths of a percentage point to a 1.3 percent rate.
The economy grew at a 3.5 percent pace in the third quarter.
The dollar was trading little changed against a basket of currencies, while prices for U.S. government bonds slipped. U.S. stocks fell as healthcare stocks took a beating after Trump tweeted about lowering drug prices.
MUCH WORK TO DO
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said the January trade data showed there was "much" work to be done.
"In the coming months we will renegotiate bad trade deals and bring renewed energy to trade enforcement in defense of all hard-working Americans," Ross said.
The administration has pulled out of the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact. Trump also wants to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which was signed in 1994 by the United States, Canada and Mexico.
Economists, however, warn that the America-first or protectionist policies being pursued by the administration are a threat to the country's economic health as other nations could retaliate. Reports last week suggested the government was preparing to ignore any rulings by the World Trade Organization it sees as an affront to U.S. sovereignty.
"If the U.S. carries through with its threats not to heed WTO rulings, it will encourage other countries to defect from the international free-trade regime and increase the risks of beggar-thy-neighbor policies," said Marc Chandler, global currency strategy head at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.
In January, imports of goods and services increased 2.3 percent to $240.6 billion, the highest since December 2014, as the country imported 259 million barrels of crude oil. That was the largest amount since July 2013.
The price of imported oil averaged $43.94 per barrel in January, the highest since August 2015. That pushed the value of petroleum imports to a two-year high. Imports of cell phones and other household goods rose $1.0 billion, while those of automobiles hit a record high.
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Barclays pares U.S. first-quarter GDP view after U.S. trade data
There were also strong gains in imports of industrial supplies and materials, and capital goods. China accounted for the bulk of imports, sending $41.4 billion worth of merchandise. That was up 5.1 percent from December.
Exports of goods and services climbed 0.6 percent to $192.1 billion, the highest level since December 2014. They were supported by shipments of industrial supplies and materials, which hit their highest level in two years. Petroleum exports were the highest since May 2015.
Exports to China dropped 13.4 percent, leaving the politically sensitive U.S.-China trade deficit up 12.8 percent at $31.3 billion. The nation's trade deficit with Mexico fell 10.1 percent to its lowest level since July 2015.
(Reporting By Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)
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reuters: By Chuck Mikolajczak
The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped on Wednesday as energy stocks suffered their worst drop in nearly six months.
The energy sector .SPNY, slumped 2.5 percent for its biggest decline since mid-September. Oil prices tumbled more than 5 percent in the wake of a much stronger-than-expected rise in U.S. inventories.
"Good news had certainly been out there in terms of production cuts," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer of Solaris Group in Bedford Hills, New York.
"Now you see, especially on the U.S. side, inventory builds and shale producers making some good money at these levels so production comes back on line."
Also moving lower were interest rate-sensitive real estate stocks .SPLRCR, off 1.5 percent, after the ADP National Employment report showed the U.S. private sector added 298,000 jobs last month, well above expectations for a 190,000 increase.
The robust data set the stage for Friday's nonfarm payrolls report, which includes private and public sector jobs and is seen as a barometer of the U.S. economy. With a small chance of a weak payrolls report, the U.S. Federal Reserve is more likely to raise rates at its meeting next week.
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., March 7, 2017. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
A trader works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., March 7, 2017. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
Traders now price in an 85.2-percent chance of a rate increase, according to Thomson Reuters data, up from 30 percent at the start of last week following hawkish comments from a string of Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Janet Yellen.
Wall Street's main indexes remain close to all-time highs, driven by anticipation of pro-growth policies under President Donald Trump. However, as details remain scarce on his plans, gains have moderated and concerns about stock valuations are more pronounced.
The S&P 500 is trading at about 18 times forward earnings estimates against the long-term average of about 15 times, according to Thomson Reuters data.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average .DJI fell 69.17 points, or 0.33 percent, to 20,855.59, the S&P 500 .SPX lost 5.41 points, or 0.23 percent, to 2,362.98 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 3.62 points, or 0.06 percent, to 5,837.55.
Caterpillar (CAT.N) fell 2.8 percent after the New York Times said it reviewed a report commissioned by the U.S. government that accused the heavy equipment maker of carrying out tax and accounting fraud.
H&R Block (HRB.N) shares surged nearly 15 percent for their best day in over eight years, after the tax preparation company posted its quarterly results.
Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.74-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.45-to-1 ratio favored decliners.
The S&P 500 posted 15 new 52-week highs and 13 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 65 new highs and 47 new lows.
About 7.07 billion shares changed hands in U.S. exchanges, slightly above the 6.94 billion daily average over the last 20 sessions.
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The US economy advanced an annualized 1.9 percent on quarter in the three months to December of 2016, lower than a 3.5 percent expansion in the previous period and below market expectations of 2.2 percent, advance estimates showed. The deceleration in real GDP in the fourth quarter reflected a downturn in exports, an acceleration in imports, a deceleration in PCE, and a downturn in federal government spending that were partly offset by an upturn in residential fixed investment, an acceleration in private inventory investment, an upturn in state and local government spending, and an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment. GDP Growth Rate in the United States averaged 3.22 percent from 1947 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 16.90 percent in the first quarter of 1950 and a record low of -10 percent in the first quarter of 1958.
US GDP Growth Slows to 1.9% in Q4
The US economy advanced an annualized 1.9% on quarter in Q4, below expectations of 2.2%. Exports slumped reversing the impact from the surge in soybean shipments in Q3 and consumer spending slowed while investment jumped, boosted by equipment and home building. In 2016, the GDP expanded 1.6%, the lowest since 2011.
Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) contributed 1.7 percentage points to growth (2.03 percent in the previous quarter) and rose 2.5 percent (3 percent in the previous quarter). Spending slowed for durable goods (10.9 percent from 11.6 percent) and services (1.3 percent from 2.7 percent) but recovered for nondurable goods (2.3 percent from -0.5 percent).
Fixed investment added 0.67 percentage points to growth (0.02 percentage points in the previous quarter) and increased 4.2 percent, compared to a meager 0.1 percent expansion in the previous period. Investment in equipment rebounded (3.1 percent from -4.5 percent); residential one recovered (10.2 percent from -4.1 percent) and intellectual property products rose faster (6.4 percent from 3.2 percent) while investment in structures slumped 5 percent, following a 12 percent jump in the previous period.
Private inventories added 1 percentage points to growth, higher than 0.49 percentage points in the previous period and the biggest contribution since the first quarter of 2015. Businesses accumulated $48.7 billion worth of inventory.
Meanwhile, exports shrank 4.3 percent, reversing from a 10 percent jump in the previous quarter and imports increased at a faster 8.3 percent (+2.2 percent), bringing the impact from trade to -1.7 percent (+0.85 percent in the previous quarter). It is the biggest drag since the second quarter of 2010.
Government spending and investment added 0.21 percentage points to growth (0.14 percent in the previous period) and rose at a faster 1.2 percent (0.8 percent).
Considering full 2016, private investment slumped for the first time since 2009 (-1.5 percent), dragged down by structures (-3.1 percent) and equipment (-2.8 percent). Consumer spending slowed (2.7 percent from 3.2 percent) as well as public spending and investment (0.9 percent from 1.8 percent). In contrast, exports increased at a slightly faster 0.4 percent (0.1 percent) and imports slowed (1.1 percent from 4.6 percent).
1/27/2017 2:19:17 PM
The US economy advanced an annualized 1.9% on quarter in Q4, below expectations of 2.2%. Exports slumped reversing the impact from the surge in soybean shipments in Q3 and consumer spending slowed while investment jumped, boosted by equipment and home building. In 2016, the GDP expanded 1.6%, the lowest since 2011.
Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) contributed 1.7 percentage points to growth (2.03 percent in the previous quarter) and rose 2.5 percent (3 percent in the previous quarter). Spending slowed for durable goods (10.9 percent from 11.6 percent) and services (1.3 percent from 2.7 percent) but recovered for nondurable goods (2.3 percent from -0.5 percent).
Fixed investment added 0.67 percentage points to growth (0.02 percentage points in the previous quarter) and increased 4.2 percent, compared to a meager 0.1 percent expansion in the previous period. Investment in equipment rebounded (3.1 percent from -4.5 percent); residential one recovered (10.2 percent from -4.1 percent) and intellectual property products rose faster (6.4 percent from 3.2 percent) while investment in structures slumped 5 percent, following a 12 percent jump in the previous period.
Private inventories added 1 percentage points to growth, higher than 0.49 percentage points in the previous period and the biggest contribution since the first quarter of 2015. Businesses accumulated $48.7 billion worth of inventory.
Meanwhile, exports shrank 4.3 percent, reversing from a 10 percent jump in the previous quarter and imports increased at a faster 8.3 percent (+2.2 percent), bringing the impact from trade to -1.7 percent (+0.85 percent in the previous quarter). It is the biggest drag since the second quarter of 2010.
Government spending and investment added 0.21 percentage points to growth (0.14 percent in the previous period) and rose at a faster 1.2 percent (0.8 percent).
Considering full 2016, private investment slumped for the first time since 2009 (-1.5 percent), dragged down by structures (-3.1 percent) and equipment (-2.8 percent). Consumer spending slowed (2.7 percent from 3.2 percent) as well as public spending and investment (0.9 percent from 1.8 percent). In contrast, exports increased at a slightly faster 0.4 percent (0.1 percent) and imports slowed (1.1 percent from 4.6 percent).
Fixed investment added 0.67 percentage points to growth (0.02 percentage points in the previous quarter) and increased 4.2 percent, compared to a meager 0.1 percent expansion in the previous period. Investment in equipment rebounded (3.1 percent from -4.5 percent); residential one recovered (10.2 percent from -4.1 percent) and intellectual property products rose faster (6.4 percent from 3.2 percent) while investment in structures slumped 5 percent, following a 12 percent jump in the previous period.
Private inventories added 1 percentage points to growth, higher than 0.49 percentage points in the previous period and the biggest contribution since the first quarter of 2015. Businesses accumulated $48.7 billion worth of inventory.
Meanwhile, exports shrank 4.3 percent, reversing from a 10 percent jump in the previous quarter and imports increased at a faster 8.3 percent (+2.2 percent), bringing the impact from trade to -1.7 percent (+0.85 percent in the previous quarter). It is the biggest drag since the second quarter of 2010.
Government spending and investment added 0.21 percentage points to growth (0.14 percent in the previous period) and rose at a faster 1.2 percent (0.8 percent).
Considering full 2016, private investment slumped for the first time since 2009 (-1.5 percent), dragged down by structures (-3.1 percent) and equipment (-2.8 percent). Consumer spending slowed (2.7 percent from 3.2 percent) as well as public spending and investment (0.9 percent from 1.8 percent). In contrast, exports increased at a slightly faster 0.4 percent (0.1 percent) and imports slowed (1.1 percent from 4.6 percent).
1/27/2017 2:19:17 PM
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Employers added nearly 180,000 jobs since the election
Donald Trump’s presidential victory may have caused some employers to hit the pause button, but not many.
In the first jobs report since Trump was elected president, employers added slightly fewer positions than expected in November. Nonetheless, the unemployment rate dropped unexpectedly to 4.6%. That’s the lowest rate that economic measure has been since August 2007, and is near what the Federal Reserve calls full employment. While that is certainly good news, the low jobless number will certainly cause some to think that economic gains are likely to slow from here, and inflation may rise.
But that hasn’t happened yet. Last month, employers added a still solid 178,000 jobs to their payrolls. That was slightly less than the 180,000 jobs employers were expect to add in November. Still the unemployment rate fell to 4.6%. At the same time, signs of rising inflation took a breather in November. Wages fell slightly in November. That was after pay rose at the fastest pace since the end of the recession in October.
The November jobs report is another sign the economy continues to extend its slow expansion, seven years after the recession officially ended. It also showed that uncertainty that some predicted would grip the economy if Trump was elected, really didn’t happen, or at least hasn’t happened yet. The good jobs report will continue to be wind at Trump’s back as he comes into office and tries to deliver on his promise of returning manufacturing jobs to America.
Friday’s jobs number is also unlikely to sway the Federal Reserve, which is expected to raise interest rates later this month, from pushing ahead. While jobs number showed no sign of inflation, it also showed that the economy is pushing forward, and can likely tolerate higher interest rates. The benchmark Fed rate has been stuck near zero since the beginning of the Great Recession, and many have argued that it is time to end the Fed’s historically low interest rates policy. November’s jobs report will give them more ammo for that.
This article originally appeared on Fortune.com
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Atwater is the author ofMoods and Markets and president of Financial Insyghts.
Trump fans think it's morning in America. How long can he game that confidence?
The experts got it all wrong. Not only did Donald Trump win the election, but the stock market rose sharply, as a result, too. Even more, consumer confidence, which many experts had forecast to collapse, has risen significantly. According to Gallup, confidence in the economy is now at a post-banking crisis high. The last time consumers felt this good about the economy was in January 2015, when gasoline prices were collapsing.
Unlike early 2015, though, this latest boost to consumer confidence hasn’t come from the economy, but from politics. Today, where you stand in terms of confidence depends heavily on where you sit politically. Per Gallup, just prior to the election, only 14% of almost 50% — the highest level reported by Republicans in more than a decade. For Democrats, the election outcome has had an opposite effect: where more than 60% saw the economy getting better before the election, only 46% felt that way after.
While changes in political party leadership have impacted consumers’ perceptions of the economy in the past, this year’s post-election sentiment reversal is extreme. Republican’s, whose outlook on the economy had been deeply negative throughout the Obama presidency, didn’t wait until Inauguration Day to feel better. Their mood changed impulsively overnight, as if to say “At last!”
For the incoming Trump administration, the sharp rise in Republican voter’s outlook is likely to be both a curse and a blessing. In contrast to how they felt before the election, Main Street Republicans’ expectations are now extremely high. Trump must quickly convert their sudden mood boost into a solid foundation if the economy is to grow meaningfully over the next four years. To sustain consumer confidence, Trump must deliver not only a bold fiscal plan, but a fast-acting one, too. With Wall Street soaring — and investors already handsomely rewarded by the prospect of a Trump presidency — consumers are now looking for real proof that the new administration will reflect their interests, too. If Trump disappoints, the sense of betrayal will be intense.
Over the coming weeks, members of the House and Senate should expect intense pressure from the incoming administration to approve legislation aimed at not just sustaining, but further boosting Main Street’s reinvigorated mood. From tax cuts to higher wages and benefits to large infrastructure programs, Trump is likely to put on the table a budget unrecognizable to Republicans of the past. With his voters’ hopes now high, he needs to deliver whatever it takes.
It would not be at all surprising to see the Trump administration aim at least one sharp elbow at Wall Street and the financial elite during the transition process, too. Not only is Main Street watching Trump closely, but as Trump demonstrated throughout his campaign, he is watching Main Street’s mood intensely, too. If his supporters’ mood starts to lag, what has been a stock market honeymoon could come to an abrupt end as Trump prioritizes the needs of voters over the interests of investors and the financial elite.
But there are other important facets to the sudden change in Republican sentiment that extend beyond the economy and the financial markets. Since the election, the number of hate crimes has increased sharply — aimed at minorities, immigrants, Muslims and other groups targeted by Trump. Sadly, for some, the sudden surge in confidence is now translating into acts of revenge. One of the unfortunate consequences of chronic underconfidence is that when it ends, some will use that moment to settle the score. As mood for many Republicans has been low for decades, and many now see Trump as a savior, some sense an urgency to act out.
How the Trump administration reacts to these violent events will be important, particularly as the societal norms signaled by the incoming administration will have a long-lasting impact. Trump must walk a fine line between fostering confidence and emboldening his followers.
The impact of the rapidly changing tide in consumer confidence, though, won’t be limited to just Trump and Republicans. Already, we have seen the consequence of falling Democratic voter confidence foster spontaneous, peaceful protests. Should Democrats’ moods fall further, those protests will become angrier; and we will see the same divisiveness and and extremism seen recently within the Republican Party. As mood falls, rising self-interest challenges the cohesiveness of even the strongest organizations. Throughout the 2016 campaign, one could watch as falling confidence split support between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. If Democrats’ confidence remains low, it would not be at all surprising to see even greater divisions form. Based on what I see, a young, leftward leaning, heretofore unknown leader could easily emerge as the new hope of the party — an anti-Hillary Clinton Democrat, as it were. While Elizabeth Warren is receiving all the media attention now, if mood stays low, the spotlight will almost certainly move on to a true outsider. For the Democratic Party, the outcome of the 2020 election will rest squarely on the party’s ability to pull together young voters in opposition to the Trump presidency. While admittedly very early, I expect anti-Wall Street/anti-capitalism sentiment to play a major part, particularly given Trump’s business pedigree.
While economists will likely look at the post-election surge in confidence as a reason to expect strong holiday sales, I wouldn’t count on that. Rather than reflecting the improving financial condition of American consumer, the latest Gallup figures are expressing a return of hopefulness to Republican voters, offset by a mild decline in optimism among Democrats — a change in the political tide. Nothing has changed in the wallets and pocketbooks of voters.
For Trump, he must now translate the tent revival resurgence in confidence among Republicans into higher confidence for all Americans. As rising confidence is the critical input to economic growth, financial prosperity and social cohesion, what happens to Americans’ mood over the next several months will drive the trajectory of the next four years. While many Americans feel better today than they did last week, many, many more need to feel good.
Peter Atwater is the president of Financial Insyghts, a research and consulting firm focused on the role of confidence in economic, financial and political decision making. In the spring of 2017, he will be an adjunct professor in economics at the College of William and Mary.
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Washington, Oct 27, 2016 (AFP) US claims for unemployment fell slightly in the third week of October, in keeping with a steady trend of low levels, according to Labor Department figures released Thursday.
Seasonally adjusted claims for jobless benefits stood at 258,000 for the week ending October 22, down 3,000 from the prior week and close to analyst expectations.
A volatile economic indicator, unemployment insurance claims are used to measure the prevalence of layoffs and the health of labor markets.
The week's result marked 86 consecutive weeks of claims below 300,000, a streak not seen since 1970, according to the Labor Department.
The four-week moving average was 253,000, up 1,000 from the prior week.
The US economy has steadily created jobs in recent months despite low productivity, prompting some US policymakers to call for raising interest rates.
Most observers expect the Federal Reserve to do so at its final meeting of 2016 in December.
(Baca Juga: Pertumbuhan Ekonomi AS Tercepat dalam Dua Tahun)
Dilansir Reuters, Rabu (30/11/2016) posisi ini juga melewati tingkat pertumbuhan kuartal kedua yakni 1,4% dimana ekonom sebelumnya memperkirakan pertumbuhan ada pada level 3%. Departemen Perdagangan menerangkan laju pertumbuhan ini menjadi yang terkuat sejak kuartal ketiga pada 2014, silam.
Kuatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi AS diyakini akan memberikan dorongan lebih lanjut kepada The Fed atau Bank Sentral Amerika Serikat untuk menaikkan suku bunga acuan AS ketika menggelar pertemuan pertengahan bulan depan. Membaiknya sektor ketenagakerjaan dan inflasi yang terus meningkat kemungkinan besar akan membuat Bank Sentral semakin nyaman menaikkan suku bunga pada 13 dan 14 Desember, mendatang.
Fed sendiri sebelumnya menaikkan suku bunga acuan pada akhir tahun kemarin untuk pertama kalinya dalam hampir satu dekade. Angka Produk Domestik Bruto (PDB) juga menunjukkan positif saat barang dan jasa mengalami peningkatan untuk menjadi sentimen bagi ekonomi AS.
"Peningkatan PDB pada kuartal ketiga terutama tercermin dari kontribusi positif seperti pengeluaran konsumsi pribadi, ekspor, investasi pribadi dan pengeluaran pemerintah federal. Sebagian juga diimbangi oleh kontribusi negatif dari investasi tetap sektor perumahan dan negara bagian serta pengeluaran pemerintah lokal," ucap Departemen Perdagangan AS.
Dikatakan belanja konsumen menyumbang lebih dari dua pertiga dari peningkatan ekonomi AS pada level 2,8% dibandingkan dengan perkiraan awal 2,1%. Meski begitu sektor equipment jatuh pada level 4,8%, atau lebih besar dari prediksi 2,7%.
(akr)
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WASHINGTON. Federal Reserve menyebutkan produksi industri Amerika Serikat (AS) naik tipis pada September. Didorong rebound output sektor manufaktur dan pertambangan, sebagian diimbangi oleh penurunan output utilitas.
Produksi industri, indikator output manufaktur, tambang dan utilitas naik 0,1 % pada September dari bulan sebelumnya, menyusul rivisi turun 0,5 % pada Agustus, kata The Fed. Para ekonom telah memperkirakan kenaikan 0,2 % untuk produksi industri bulan lalu.
Output manufaktur, komponen terbesar dari produksi industri secara keseluruhan, naik 0,2 % pada September, membalikkan penurunan di bulan sebelumnya.
Output pertambangan naik 0,4 % pada bulan lalu, kenaikan keempat dalam lima bulan terakhir, menunjukkan sektor energi mungkin telah stabil.
Tapi output utilitas turun 1 % pada September, penurunan bulanan kedua berturut-turut meskipun cuaca hangat tidak pada musimnya di bulan tersebut.
Langkah lambat dari produksi industri secara keseluruhan pada September menunjukkan bahwa pertumbuhan ekonomi AS di kuartal ketiga mungkin tidak sekuat seperti yang diperkirakan sebelumnya.
Ekonomi AS tumbuh pada tingkat tahunan sebesar 1,4 % pada kuartal kedua tahun ini, menyusul kecepatan lambat 0,8 % pada kuartal pertama, menurut Departemen Perdagangan.
http://internasional.kontan.co.id/news/produksi-industri-amerika-tumbuh-tipis-september
Sumber : KONTAN.CO.ID
The U.S. budget deficit as a share of the economy widened for the first time in seven years, marking a turning point in the nation’s fiscal outlook as an aging population boosts government spending and debt.
Spending exceeded revenue by $587.4 billion in the 12 months to Sept. 30, compared with a $439.1 billion deficit in fiscal 2015, the Treasury Department said Friday in a report released in Washington. That was in line with a Congressional Budget Officeestimate on Oct. 7 for a shortfall of $588 billion. As a share of gross domestic product, the shortfall rose to 3.2 percent from 2.5 percent a year earlier, the first such increase since 2009, government figures show.
“The slowdown in tax collections suggests some cooling in labor market activity,” said Gennadiy Goldberg, a strategist at TD Securities LLC in New York. He sees the higher budget deficits implying more borrowing needs by Treasury.
The rising deficit also comes amid warnings from the International Monetary Fund last week of the risks of increasing debt loads, which it says complicates the task for policy makers who have pledged to use fiscal policy to give the global economy a fillip.
Debt levels are seen rising under both U.S. election candidates. Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s spending proposals include $275 billion for infrastructure and $350 billion on making college more affordable. Her proposals would add $200 billion to $1.8 trillion to deficits, according to recent independent economists’ projections. She has proposed tax increases for the wealthy to help fill the gap.
Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, has pledged to cut taxes and spend as much as $500 billion on infrastructure programs. Projections of the impact of his proposals say he’d increase the national debt by roughly $5 trillion over 10 years. Trump says his proposals would boost economic growth, which in turn would help reduce the federal debt.
The Treasury said receipts in fiscal 2016 totaled $3.27 trillion, or 17.8 percent of GDP, while spending totaled $3.85 trillion, or 20.9 percent of GDP. Receipts rose $18 billion from fiscal 2015, while outlays jumped $166 billion, the figures showed. The department cited higher spending on Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and interest on government debt.
For September, which is the final month in the fiscal calendar, the government reported a $33.4 billion surplus. That was lower than the $90.9 billion surplus a year earlier, in part due to calendar adjustments, according to the Treasury.
2016: US GDP @ $ 18.42 T
investing.com: The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) released the September Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index(PMI), also known as the ISM Services PMI. The headline Composite Index is at 57.1 percent, a stunning 5.7 percent bounce from last month's disappointing 51.4 percent. Today's number came in well above the Investing.com forecast of 53.0 percent. The September bounce is the largest month-over-month increase in the history of this series.
Here is the report summary:
The NMI® registered 57.1 percent in September, 5.7 percentage points higher than the August reading of 51.4 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector at a faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased substantially to 60.3 percent, 8.5 percentage points higher than the August reading of 51.8 percent, reflecting growth for the 86th consecutive month, at a noticeably faster rate in September. The New Orders Index registered 60 percent, 8.6 percentage points higher than the reading of 51.4 percent in August. The Employment Index increased 6.5 percentage points in September to 57.2 percent from the August reading of 50.7 percent. The Prices Index increased 2.2 percentage points from the August reading of 51.8 percent to 54 percent, indicating prices increased in September for the sixth consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 14 non-manufacturing industries reported growth in September. The comments from the respondents are mostly positive about business conditions and the overall economy. A degree of uncertainty does exist due to geopolitical conditions coupled with the upcoming U.S. presidential election." source: institute For Supply Management
Unlike its much older kin, the ISM Manufacturing series, there is relatively little history for ISM's Non-Manufacturing data, especially for the headline Composite Index, which dates from 2008. The chart below shows Non-Manufacturing Composite. We have only a single recession to gauge is behavior as a business cycle indicator.
The more interesting and useful subcomponent is the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index. The latest data point at 60.3 percent is up 8.5 percent from a seasonally adjusted 51.8 the previous month and the highest reading since October 2015.
For a diffusion index, this can be an extremely volatile indicator, hence the addition of a six-month moving average to help us visualizing the short-term trends.
Theoretically, this indicator should become more useful as the time frame of its coverage expands. Manufacturing may be a more sensitive barometer than Non-Manufacturing activity, but we are increasingly a services-oriented economy, which explains our intention to keep this series on the radar.
Here is a table showing trend in the underlying components.
The median estimate from economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics calls for gross domestic product growth of 1.5 percent this year, down from the 1.8 percent they forecast in June. The outlook for next year calls for 2.3 percent growth.
In addition, 81 percent of those surveyed said they don't expect the U.S. economy to peak until at least 2018.
The association notes that the September report, released Monday, represents the fourth-consecutive quarterly survey in which the participating economists have lowered their expectations for 2016 for GDP growth.
The group points to lower expectations for business investment as the main reason, but it also notes that worries about the outcome of November's presidential election are also weighing on expectations. Just over half of the economists surveyed said election uncertainty had a "modest negative'' impact on their GDP expectation for this year.
The association added that 56 percent of those surveyed said they saw the possibility of a Hillary Clinton win as having a neutral effect on their economic growth expectations, while 60 percent said they thought the election of Donald Trump would have a negative effect.
On the bright side, the economists don't expect the reduced GDP expectations to carry over to consumer spending. The report's median forecast for growth in real personal consumption expenditures is 2.7 percent in 2016 and 2.6 percent in 2017.
Both predictions represent an increase of 0.1 percentage point from June numbers.
And the panel is now predicting flat corporate profits in 2016 _ better than the median 2 percent decline projected in June. For 2017, they expect a gain of 4.2 percent.
The survey of 46 forecasters was taken between August 8 and August 25.-AP
wsj: U.S. GDP Grew at a Disappointing 1.2% in Second Quarter
U.S. economic growth sputtered—growing a meager 1.2% in the second quarter—with cautious business investment largely offsetting more robust consumer spending.
wsj: The U.S. economy in 2015 turned in its best performance since before the recession, according to newly revised data, though the overarching trajectory of growth remains muted.
wsj: The U.S. economy in 2015 turned in its best performance since before the recession, according to newly revised data, though the overarching trajectory of growth remains muted.
Gross domestic product, a broad measure of economic output, expanded at a 2.6% pace last year, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Friday. That’s a small bump up from the most recently reported 2.4% rate and the best since 2006, when the economy advanced at a 2.7% pace.
The agency fine-tunes its GDP estimates multiple times, including the latest annual update covering 2013 through 2015, as newly available and revised source data become available. The latest accounting includes, for example, tabulations from corporate tax returns, the latest federal budget figures and new information on housing.
Even with the small bump to last year’s number, economic growth averages out to only 2.2% from 2010 to 2015, barely moved from the previous 2.1% estimate and a disappointing pace following a particularly severe recession. From 1946 to 2000, GDP growth averaged 3.3%.
Perhaps more interesting than the annual revisions—at least to economy nerds—are changes government economists made to the seasonal adjustment process.
BEA adjusts for predictable seasonal variations—construction slows in the winter, retail sales climb before December holidays, school starts around the same time every fall and ends about the same time every spring—to give a better sense of underlying economic activity.
But for years, first-quarter GDP has consistently been weak, a phenomenon that initially raised alarms about the economy and then questions about the data.
Agency officials, aware of the shortcomings, made some adjustments last year andreviewed the components that make up GDP to figure out where numbers might be skewing. The latest series of tweaks suggest a smoother pattern of growth from quarter to quarter, though a slowdown in early 2014, perhaps a result of a brutal cold snap, doesn’t allow for a broad conclusion.
To answer two frequent questions: 1.) Yes, seasonal adjustments account for winter. But they don’t account for extreme weather events, such as long stretches of record cold and unusually heavy snow. 2.) No, this isn’t a way to make the economy look better. If new seasonal adjustments add to first-quarter GDP, they necessarily subtract from another quarter or quarters, leaving overall growth the same.
A more complete picture might not come until 2018, when BEA officials plan to revise their historical time series to remove any remaining residual seasonality and also to release estimates of GDP and its major components that are not seasonally adjusted.
After enduring the gloomiest post-recession recovery in U.S. history, American families are finally seeing a ray of economic light.
In 2015, the proverbial 99 percent enjoyed the fastest inflation-adjusted growth in their income since 1998, according to an analysis of federal tax data by University of California, Berkeley economist Emmanuel Saez. Incomes for those households rose 3.9 percent from the previous year, the study found.
Time to break out the champagne? Not quite. The research, published by the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, shows that Americans still haven't regained the ground they lost in the epic downturn that followed the 2008 financial crisis.
"After a large decline of 11.6 percent from 2007 to 2009, real incomes of the bottom 99 percent of families registered a negligible 1.1 percent gain from 2009 to 2013, and then grew by 6.0 percent from 2013 to 2015," he wrote in a research note. "Hence, a full recovery in income growth for the bottom 99 percent remains elusive."Notably, it also highlights that a corrosive defect in the economy -- inequality -- is getting worse. Saez found that the top 1 percent of income earners continue to outperform the rest of American families, with the richest workers enjoying income gains of 7.7 percent last year.
Although the recession ended six years ago, the bottom 99 percent of income earners have recaptured only about 60 percent of their losses due to the crisis, he added.
The wealthiest Americans seem to live in another reality. Incomes for the top 1 percent jumped 37 percent from 2009 to 2015, reaching roughly $1.4 million last year. While the bottom 99 percent saw gains, they were relatively paltry in comparison -- a 7.6 percent increase during the same period helped lift the average income to $48,800 last year.
"This uneven recovery is unfortunately on par with a long-term widening of inequality since 1980, when the top 1 percent of families began to capture a disproportionate share of economic growth," Saez said.
The issue of inequality in the U.S. has flared during the presidential race, revealing a cultural and economic pressure point that the candidates have tried to address in various ways. Americans' view of the economy is partly tied to the health of their paycheck, and many are still struggling with stagnating income, especially those who lack college degrees.
Efforts in recent years to use tax policy to narrow the gap between rich and poor have yet to start paying, or at least not as much as President Obama hoped with a 2013 reform aimed at boosting tax rates on the richest Americans.
"The latest data from the IRS suggests the 2013 reforms proved to be fleeting in terms of reducing income inequality," Saez noted. "There was a dip in pre-tax income earned by the top one percent in 2013, yet by 2015 top incomes are once again on the rise -- following a pattern of growing income inequality stretching back to the 1970s."
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA -- Indeks manufaktur Amerika Serikat mencatatkan kenaikan menjadi 53,2 dibandingkan dengan sebelumnya 51,3. Hal itu didukung oleh permintaan produk konsumsi yang terus meningkat.
ISM Manufaktur Indeks Amerika Serikat (AS) itu pun naik di atas konsesus yang memperkirakan hasilnya pada rentang 50 sampai 53 dengan median 51,5.
Ryan Wang, ekonom HSBC Securities USA Inc., mengatakan harapannya kenaikan indeks manufaktur itu menjadi sinyal perlambatan pada beberapa industri manufaktur telah mulai kembali stabil.
"Perusahaan manufaktur yang mmeproduksi barang konsumsi terus mencatatkan permintaan yang solid," ujarnya seperti dilansir Bloomberg pada Sabtu (2/7).
Dalam survei teranyar dari Institute for Supply Management (ISM) menunjukkan kalau produsen terus menerima lebih banyak pesanan dan meningkatkan produksi sepanjang bulan lalu. Bahkan, untuk parbrik di kawan Arizona mencatatkan level tertinggi sejak Februari 2015.
Namun, ISM sempat kembali meminta anggotanya melakukan survey kinerja manufaktur pada periode 25 Juni sampai 29 Juni untuk melihat potensi dampak dari kejadian Brexit. Dari hasil kajian ulang tersebut, ISM optimistis dampak Brexit tidak akan terpengaruh pada sektor riil Negeri Paman Sam.
New York, July 1, 2016 (AFP)
Global stocks rose again Friday as worries about the British exit from the European Union continued to recede amid expectations of more stimulus from central banks.
Equity markets in Paris, London and Frankfurt all gained about one percent in their fourth straight day of moving up.
US stocks also pushed higher for the fourth day running, but the S&P 500 mustered a gain of just 0.2 percent. US markets will be closed Monday for a public holiday.
The European increases came as eurozone unemployment fell to a near five-year low in May, a welcome piece of good news for the struggling single-currency bloc. However, unemployment still stood at 10.1 percent, well above the level prior to the 2008 financial crisis.
In the US, the Institute for Supply Management reported its purchasing managers index for manufacturing activity rose to an unexpectedly strong 53.2 in June from 51.3 in May.
Analysts said that Britain's June 23 vote to quit the EU, which has unleashed global worries about its impact on the global economy, would probably push central banks to further ease monetary policy.
Bank of England chief Mark Carney hinted on Thursday of more monetary stimulus in the coming months. The Brexit vote is also expected to push back any plans by the US Federal Reserve to hike interest rates.
The Brexit "is not a bullish event," said Mace Blicksilver, director of Marblehead Asset Management.
"But you've triggered this massive dose of liquidity."
Blicksilver said investors are cautious about selling stocks since the market could rally even higher next week now that it is clear that Brexit has not emerged as a Lehman-type event, at least in the near term.
- Brexit uncertainty -
But S&P Global trimmed its 2016 and 2017 US growth forecasts on Friday, warning that "the vulnerabilities surrounding Brexit are far from resolved."
"All told, we expect the repercussions from Brexit to weigh somewhat on US GDP," S&P said.
Briefing.com analyst Patrick O'Hare said the growing unknowns emanating from questions about the political complexion of Britain and the EU will drag on the US earnings outlook.
"There is a heightened degree of uncertainty stemming from the Brexit vote and a weaker global economic outlook as a result of it," said Briefing.com analyst Patrick O'Hare.
Moves by central banks have "helped put a band-aid on the bleeding, yet there still haven't been any sutures beyond that to close the cut, which will likely remain an open wound for some time," he said.
On Wall Street, Hewlett Packard Enterprise rose 1.4 percent after a California jury awarded it $3.1 billion from software giant Oracle in damages after HPE sued Oracle for not providing support services. Oracle lost 0.2 percent.
Tesla Motors rose 2.0 percent despite news that US auto-safety regulators were probing a fatal crash involving a Tesla sedan operating in a self-driving mode. Global Equities Research said the incident was "sad" but a "non-event" from a stock perspective.
In Tokyo, Takata plunged 6.1 percent after US auto safety regulators urged owners of seven Honda and Acura models equipped with the company's especially defective airbags to immediately have the cars fixed.
- Key figures around 2100 GMT -
New York - DOW: UP 0.1 percent at 17,949.37 (close)
New York - S&P 500: UP 0.2 percent at 2,102.95 (close)
New York - Nasdaq: UP 0.3 percent to 4,862.57 (close)
London - FTSE 100: UP 1.1 percent at 6,577.83 (close)
Frankfurt - DAX 30: UP 1.0 percent at 9,776.12 (close)
Paris - CAC 40: UP 0.9 percent at 4,273.96 (close)
Euro Stoxx 50: UP 0.6 percent at 2,883.06 (close)
Tokyo - Nikkei 225: UP 0.7 percent at 15,682.48 (close)
Hong Kong - Hang Seng: Closed for public holiday
Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.1 percent at 2,932.48 (close)
Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3267 from $1.3314 Thursday
Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1138 from $1.1104
Dollar/yen: DOWN at 102.52 yen from 103.23 yen
burs-jmb/vs
The U.S. economy expanded at a slightly faster pace in the first quarter than previously estimated, reflecting less damage from trade and inventories.
Gross domestic product rose at a 0.8 percent annualized rate in the three months ended in March, the smallest gain in a year, Commerce Department figures showed Friday. That compares with the 0.5 percent advance the government reported last month.
The figures do little to alter views of the third consecutive sluggish start to the year, and could portend a tougher slog in the second quarter as businesses work to continue to pare stockpiles. At the same time, household income gains were stronger than previously reported as the labor market strengthened, which will help support consumer spending.
“It’s still a very poor start to the year,” Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc. in West Chester, Pennsylvania, said before the report. “From past experience we get most of that back in the second quarter.”
The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for a 0.9 percent gain in GDP, the value of all goods and services produced. Projections ranged from 0.5 percent to 1.4 percent. This is the second of three estimates for the quarter before annual revisions in July.
The report included revisions to fourth-quarter personal income that showed pay accelerated even more than previously estimated. Wages and salaries grew by $125.5 billion, the biggest quarterly gain in almost two years and up from the $81.7 billion gain previously reported.
Income Gains
After-tax personal income adjusted for inflation climbed at a 4 percent annualized rate in the first quarter, revised up from a prior estimate of 2.9 percent. The saving rate was also pushed up to 5.7 percent, the highest since the fourth quarter of 2012, from 5.2 percent.
The figures also offered a first look at corporate profits. Before-tax earnings rose 0.3 percent from the prior quarter, but were down 5.8 percent from the same time last year.
Total income in the economy, which combines all forms of earnings, increased at a 2.2 percent annualized rate, the most since the fourth quarter of 2014.
Theoretically, the income and GDP figures should match over time although they often diverge in the short term. The stronger performance by the earnings side of the ledger will stoke debate that first-quarter GDP figures have lately been underestimated.
Household purchases, which account for almost 70 percent of the economy, grew at a 1.9 percent annualized rate, the same as initially estimated.
New York, May 13, 2016 (AFP)
The dollar jumped on Friday after a better-than-expected rebound in US retail sales last month erased some doubts about the strength of the US economy.
But the yen also gained, shrugging off more efforts by Tokyo to talk it down from recent highs.
The greenback was up 0.6 percent on the euro and the pound, and 0.7 percent on the Canadian currency.
The rebound in US retail sales, which grew 1.3 percent in April over March, suggested the end of the first-quarter slump and gave support to the Federal Reserve's policy body, the Federal Open Market Committee, to raise interest rates later this year.
"This data is not enough to convince the FOMC of a faster pace of real GDP growth this quarter," said PNC Bank chief economist Stuart Hoffman.
Nevertheless, he said, in the June FOMC meeting it will be used by the hawks among the policymakers to try to pull the Fed off the dovish rate stance it has held in recent meetings.
In Tokyo, Bank of Japan chief Haruhiko Kuroda repeated a pledge that he was ready to unleash more stimulus measures to boost the sagging economy, comments that would normally dampen the currency.
Kuroda said the central bank "doesn't have to wait" to launch more monetary easing as it gauges the impact of its negative-rate policy.
But coming after weeks of such threats and promises from top officials, the markets appeared to have deaf ears.
The yen pushed up 1.0 percent on the euro and 0.3 percent on the dollar.
2100 GMT Friday Thursday
EUR/USD 1.1309 1.1377
EUR/JPY 122.85 124.02
EUR/CHF 1.1025 1.1042
EUR/GBP 0.7874 0.7872
USD/JPY 108.63 109.00
USD/CHF 0.9755 0.9705
GBP/USD 1.4365 1.4453
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. factory activity expanded at a more moderate pace in April due in part to a slowdown in new orders, but a rise in export orders to a near 1-1/2-year high and signs an inventory overhang drag was fading offered hope for the manufacturing sector.
Another report on Monday showed construction spending rose to an 8-1/2-year high in March and the prior month's outlays were revised higher, implying a small upward revision to the first quarter's pedestrian growth rate.
"Manufacturing is moving forward but we have the tortoise, not the hare in this race," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pennsylvania.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity slipped to 50.8 last month from a reading of 51.8 in March. Despite the fall, April marked the second straight month of expansion and was also the second highest reading in the last eight months.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector, which accounts for 12 percent of the U.S. economy. Economists had forecast the ISM manufacturing index dipping to 51.4 last month.
Manufacturing has been hurt by weak export growth stemming from a strong dollar and soft global demand.
The sector has also been hammered by relentless aggressive spending cuts in the energy sector in the aftermath of last year's plunge in oil prices. Efforts by businesses to reduce an inventory overhang have resulted in fewer factory orders, leading to further erosion in the manufacturing sector.
U.S. stocks were trading higher on Monday, while prices for U.S. Treasuries fell. The dollar (.DXY) weakened against a basket of currencies.
Q2 GDP REBOUND EXPECTED
Manufacturing last month was held back by a drop in the gauge of orders received by factories, which fell 2.5 points to 55.8 percent. Factory production also fell last month.
A 10th consecutive monthly decline in inventories restrained manufacturing activity in April, but represented good news for future factory output. ISM said customer inventories hit a nine-month low last month and were now regarded as being "too low."
A gauge of export orders rose to its highest level since November 2014, suggesting a pickup in global demand. It also indicates the dollar's depreciation this year against the currencies of the United States' main trading partners is starting to boost exports.
"This makes us hopeful that manufacturing has turned the corner and that the economy will pick up in the second quarter," said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank, in New York.
Economic growth slowed to a 0.5 percent annualized rate in the first quarter. Given a fairly robust labor market, which is expected to boost sluggish consumer spending, economists expect gross domestic product growth to rebound in the second quarter.
The economy grew at a 1.4 percent rate in the fourth quarter.
In a separate report, the Commerce Department said construction spending increased 0.3 percent in March to its highest level since October 2007, following an upwardly revised 1.0 percent jump in February.
Construction outlays were previously reported to have declined 0.5 percent in February.
The revised February construction spending figures were much higher those used in the government's advance first-quarter GDP estimate published last week. Economists expect GDP growth for the first three months of the year will be revised up to a 0.7 percent rate.
"This morning's data indicate that residential and nonresidential structures investment will both likely be revised higher in the second estimate," said Jesse Hurwitz, an economist at Barclays in New York.
Construction spending in March was supported by a 1.1 percent surge in private construction, which hit its highest level since October 2007. Public construction spending fell 1.9 percent in March.
(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Paul Simao)
Bisnis.com, JAKARTA—Realiasi perekonomian Amerika Serikat (AS) pada kuartal I/2016 yang hanya 0,5% bisa mengganggu kinerja ekspor Indonesia.
Data Departement Perdagangan AS menunjukkan produk domestik bruto (PDB) pada kuartal I/2016 hanya tumbuh 0,5%. Angka ini merupakan terendah dalam dua tahun terakhir.
Pertumbuhan ekonomi yang rendah ini terjadi karena konsumen menahan pengeluaran dan perusahaan memotong belanja modal seiring dengan pelemahan keuangan global dan penurunan harga minyak dunia.
Menteri Koordinator Bidang Perekonomian Darmin Nasution mengatakan perekonomian AS belum sepenuhnya pulih. Perlambatan perekonomian Negeri Paman Sam yang menjadi tujuan utama ekpsor Indonesia bisa berdampak tidak bagus.
“Dia sekarang tujuan ekspor nomor satu kita, sudah menggeser China,” katanya di Kemenko Perekonomian, Jakarta, Kamis (29/4/2016) malam.
Berdasarkan data Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS), nilai ekspor Indonesia ke China selalu lebih besar dibandingkan Amerika Serikat sejak 2009. Tren ini terus berlanjut hingga 2014 di mana ekspor ke AS sebesar US$16,53 miliar, lebih rendah dari ekspor ke China US$17,60 miliar.
Dominasi ekspor ke China atas Amerika Serikat berbalik arah mulai 2015. Ekspor nonmigas pada 2015 ke AS mencapai US$15,30 miliar, lebih tinggi dari ekspor ke China yang hanya US$13,26 miliar.
New York, April 28, 2016 (AFP)
Billionaire investor Carl Icahn sent US stocks reeling Thursday after announcing he liquidated his investment in Apple, the biggest factor in the Dow's more than 200-point drop.
Icahn's remarks served as the last jolt in a news-jammed day that included a surprise decision by the Bank of Japan against enacting further monetary stimulus and an unsolicited $9.3 billion bid by French pharma titan Sanofi to buy US biotech firm Medivation.
Oil prices climbed to fresh 2016 highs, but the US government's first estimate of economic growth in the January-March quarter came in below expectations at an anemic 0.5 percent.
In Europe, shares were little-changed, with Frankfurt outperforming with a 0.2 percent gain.
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite both closed down 1.2 percent as Apple's 3.1 percent loss led a broader selloff in the tech sector.
Icahn told CNBC he unloaded his remaining shares in Apple due to worries the Chinese government would thwart the tech titan's efforts to sell more iPhones and other gadgets in the world's second-biggest economy.
Icahn also said he was "extremely cautious" about US equities given the embrace by the US Federal Reserve and other central banks of low and negative interest rates.
On Thursday, the BoJ's held fire on a fresh round of widely expected stimulus measures, sparking questions about whether it had anything left in its arsenal to kickstart the stuttering Japanese economy.
Tokyo's Nikkei index plunged more than 3.5 percent, while the yen moved sharply higher against other currencies. Near 1700 GMT, the dollar was at 108.13 yen from 111.47 yen Wednesday.
The move by the Japanese central bank suggests "the BOJ itself may be confused about what the right next step should be," said Briefing.com analyst Patrick O'Hare.
"That's not a good position and it is apt to make life more difficult for other central banks as they contemplate their next moves and how to avoid counter-productive decision making."
Traders had widely expected the BoJ to unveil fresh measures to shore up the world's number three economy after this month's deadly earthquakes in southern Japan and a string of weak data.
"It's a total shock," said Nader Naeimi, Sydney-based head of dynamic markets at AMP Capital Investors.
"From currencies to equities to everything -- you can see the reaction in the markets. I can't believe this. It's very disappointing."
- A day of deals -
The drag from the BoJ move was partly countered by merger news.
DreamWorks Animation, the studio known for its "Shrek" and "Madagascar" films, surged 24.1 percent as it agreed to be acquired by Comcast for $3.8 billion. Comcast fell 0.2 percent
Medical device maker St. Jude Medical soared 25.6 percent on news it reached a deal to be acquired by Abbott for $25 billion in cash and shares. Abbott lost 7.8 percent.
A second big healthcare deal also looked possible as drugmaker Sanofi went public with a an all-cash $9.3 billion offer for Medivation, saying the US company repeatedly refused to engage in talks.
Medivation climbed 7.9 percent, while US shares of Sanofi lost 1.8 percent.
- Key figures around 2100 GMT -
New York - Dow: DOWN 1.2 percent at 17,830.76 (close)
New York - S&P 500: DOWN 0.9 percent at 2,075.81 (close)
New York - Nasdaq: DOWN 1.2 percent at 4,805.29 (close)
London - FTSE 100: UP less than 0.1 percent at 6,322.40 (close)
Frankfurt - DAX 30: UP 0.2 percent at 10,321.15 (close)
Paris - CAC 40: DOWN less than 0.1 percent at 4,557.36 (close)
EURO STOXX 50: DOWN 0.2 percent at 3,125.43 (close)
Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 3.6 percent at 16,666.05 (close)
Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.3 percent at 2,945.59 (close)
Hong Kong - Hang Seng: UP 0.1 percent at 21,388.03 (close)
Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1356 from $1.1321 Wednesday
Dollar/yen: DOWN at 108.13 yen from 111.47 yen
burs-jmb/pmh
NEW YORK kontan. Pasar tenaga kerja AS terus membaik. Salah satu buktinya dapat dilihat dari data klaim pengangguran Amerika yang terus melorot.
Berdasarkan data yang dirilis Departemen Tenaga Kerja AS, jumlah pengajuan klaim pengangguran pada pekan lalu hanya sebanyak 247.000 klaim, terendah sejak November 1973 silam.
"Pasar tenaga kerja masih tetap positif," jelas Gus Faucher, senior economist PNC Financial.
Secara keseluruhan, pasar tenaga kerja AS merupakan salah satu sektor yang paling bersinar pada perekonomian AS. Dalam setahun terakhir, tingkat pengangguran turun secara signifikan, jutaan lapangan kerja tersedia, dan ada sinyal kenaikan tingkat upah.
Selain itu, jika dilihat dari data historis klaim pengangguran AS, terlihat bahwa pasar tenaga kerja mengalami tren kenaikan. Klaim tunjangan pengangguran terus berada di bawah angka 300.000 selama 59 pekan berturut-turut, periode terlama sejak 1973.
Data baik terus berdatangan. Jumlah warga AS yang bekerja atau mencari pekerjaan juga semakin melonjak sejak September 2015 lalu. Ini artinya, warga AS yang tadinya menganggur, tidak mengajukan lamaran pekerjaan, mulai kembali aktif.
New York, April 1, 2016 (AFP)
Wall Street stocks defied the norm Friday, rising while overseas bourses tumbled, following solid US jobs and manufacturing data.
The S&P 500's 0.6 percent gain stood out compared with sizeable declines in most of the stock markets in Europe and Asia following dismal Japanese economic data and a drop in oil prices.
"Given the underwhelming investment options around the world, if you want to invest in an equities market (Wall Street) remains one of the better places to be," said Michael James, managing director of equity trading at Wedbush Securities.
"Our economy here in the US continues to be better than the majority of worldwide economies."
Japan opened the day on a sour note with the Bank of Japan's quarterly Tankan report of 10,000 manufacturing firms showing sentiment plunging to the worst level since Prime Minister Shinzo Abe put his growth drive fully into action in 2013.
"It's become clear that the economy is weakening," said Kohei Iwahara, director of economic research at Natixis Japan Securities, one of several analysts to predict more aggressive action from Japanese policy makers.
Oil prices fell about four percent after Saudi Arabia's deputy crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, suggested to Bloomberg News that the kingdom would freeze output only if the move is mirrored by Iran and other major oil producers.
The Nikkei tumbled 3.6 percent, while Frankfurt and Paris ended down more than one percent. London slid 0.5 percent.
But Friday's economic news in the United States was good. The Labor Department said the US economy added a better-than-expected 215,000 jobs in March in a report that also showed a modest pickup in hourly wages.
That was followed by a report from the Institute for Supply Management showing its purchasing managers index for the manufacturing sector jumped 2.3 percentage points from February to 51.8 in March, above the threshold of 50 between growth and contraction.
"The data should lessen fears that 'global economic and financial developments' -- GEFD -- will cause overall US growth to slow significantly," said Jim O'Sullivan, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics.
- Automakers skid -
Automakers retreated as weaker-than-expected US auto sales suggested the multi-year boom in the world's biggest economy may be ending. Toyota fell 3.0 percent, Daimler 2.2 percent and General Motors 3.1 percent.
Tesla Motors rose 3.4 percent following a launch event of its Model 3 electric car after which founder Elon Musk said the company had received 198,000 pre-orders for the vehicle. The car is scheduled to hit the market late next year.
Petroleum-linked stocks fell with oil prices, with BP shedding 1.8 percent, France's Total 3.2 percent and US giant Chevron 1.2 percent.
Starwood Hotels & Resorts lost 4.9 percent as the bidding war over the chain ended with the consortium led by China's Anbang withdrawing a $14 billion offer late Thursday. That left Starwood free to merge with Marriott International, which fell 5.7 percent.
In Tokyo, Panasonic dived 12.1 percent after forecasting an 8.5 percent drop in profit this fiscal year as it pushes forward with a wide-ranging restructuring.
Embattled airbag supplier Takata tumbled 5.9 percent as it continues to reel from an airbag-recall scandal that could potentially cost it 2.7 trillion yen ($24 billion) under a worst-case scenario.
- Key figures around 2100 GMT -
New York - Dow: UP 0.6 percent at 17,792.75 (close)
New York - S&P 500: UP 0.6 percent at 2,072.78 (close)
New York - Nasdaq: UP 0.9 percent at 4,914.54 (close)
London - FTSE 100: DOWN 0.5 percent at 6,146.05 (close)
Frankfurt - DAX 30: DOWN 1.7 percent at 9,794.64 (close)
Paris - CAC 40: DOWN 1.4 percent at 4,322.24 (close)
EURO STOXX 50: DOWN 0.7 percent at 2,984.36 (close)
Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 3.6 percent at 16,164.16 (close)
Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.2 percent at 3,009.53 (close)
Hong Kong - Hang Seng: DOWN 1.3 percent at 20,498.92 (close)
Euro/dollar: UP at $1.1393 from $1.1377 on Thursday
Dollar/yen: DOWN at 111.63 yen from 112.60 yen
burs-jmb/vs
Washington, April 1, 2016 (AFP)
New York, Seattle, California: in the battle over the US minimum wage, cities and states are taking their own initiative, making regional advances toward the goal of a $15 an hour floor.
Some cities have voted through spectacular increases, making the dream of better pay a reality for hundreds of thousands of employees in a country where the federal minimum wage level has remained unchanged at $7.25 an hour since 2009.
Opinions about the need for an increase are split along party lines.
Democratic presidential candidates Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders both support an increase, differing only on the scale and timing of such a move.
The former secretary of state calls for a smaller, slower raise while the Vermont senator wants the minimum doubled.
With rare exceptions such as Mitt Romney, the presidential nominee in 2012, Republicans have generally resisted calls for an increase, citing potential job losses.
Republican control of Congress over the past five years has ensured that the federal level remained unchanged.
It's now a third below the minimum wage in France, Belgium and other wealthy European countries, taking into account the relative purchasing power in those countries, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development says.
Like many other progressive causes in a country polarized between left and right, action is taking place at the state and municipal levels.
Minimum wages in 29 states and the capital Washington have surpassed the federal level. New York has instituted $9 an hour and California, $10. Major companies in Seattle have paid $13 an hour since January 1. In New York City, fast food employees earn at least $10.50.
A total of 18 states have voluntarily increased their minimum wages since 2013, some after holding referenda on the issue, according to the White House.
A new wave is expected in 2016.
The most significant change is brewing in California, the most populous US state, where local officials have recently agreed to progressively reach $15 an hour by 2023, a target large companies will hit even earlier.
More than a third of California's workforce would benefit from wage increases, according to a study from Berkeley University.
Clinton hailed the plan on Monday, tweeting a "big win for workers."
Sanders parried, also on Twitter. "But here's the difference," he said. "I support a $15 federal minimum wage. @HillaryClinton does not."
Her proposal calls for raising the federal level from $7.25 to $12.
- Regional Differences -
A sudden minimum wage increase would be felt differently in various regions.
In the relatively poor South, the cost of living is far lower than on the country's wealthy coasts.
Doubling restaurant employees' salaries in Mississippi would have greater effect than in San Francisco, where salaries are already higher.
New York's high cost of living also makes raising the current minimum wage more urgent there.
"You're going to have higher legislated minimum wages in urban areas versus rural areas, Northeast and California versus the deep South," Jacob Kirkegaard of Washington's Peterson Institute said.
He believes those variations will only grow.
Unions and activists are pushing for a nationwide increase nevertheless.
In real value, the federal minimum wage has fallen to around a third of its peak level in 1968.
"The $7.25 minimum wage is only about $15,000 a year for a worker, and that's not enough to support a family anywhere in the country," said Laura Huizar of the National Employment Law Project.
The government sets the poverty line for a family of three at $20,160.
It's an issue that is almost never raised in the Republican primary campaign.
Texas Senator Ted Cruz has come out against any minimum wage increase.
Ohio Governor John Kasich flirted with a "reasonable" increase in September before changing tack during a debate earlier this month.
"Well, well, wait a minute, first of all, I didn't say I was for an increase in the federal minimum wage," he said in response to a question in apparent alarm.
"If states want to do it, they ought to sit down with businesspeople and the lawmakers and figure out what will work."
Donald Trump said in November that wages were "too high," which was hurting American competitiveness.
That changed after Republicans began taking President Barack Obama to task over wage stagnation.
Trump corrected himself in December: "Wages in our country are too low."
ico/grf/jm
<org idsrc="isin" value="US9311421039">WAL-MART STORES</org>
<org idsrc="isin" value="US5801351017">MCDONALD'S</org>
National Income and Product Accounts
Gross Domestic Product: Fourth Quarter and Annual 2015 (Third Estimate)
Corporate Profits: Fourth Quarter and Annual 2015
Real gross domestic product -- the value of the goods and services produced by the nation's economy less the value of the goods and services used up in production, adjusted for price changes -- increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the third quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent.
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