inves + trading cara maen saham @ warteg (EXCEL FILE)

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Bisnis.com, JAKARTA—Perusahan-perusahaan asal Asia berhasil mencatatkan kinerja terbaik di bursa saham Amerika Serikat (AS) pada tahun ini.

Berdasarkan data yang dihimpun oleh Bloomberg, lima belas perusahaan asal Benua Kuning berhasil mengumpulkan dana US$3,2 miliar melalui aksi penawaran umum perdananya (Initial Public Offering/IPO) di AS pada tahun ini. Selain itu, secara kumulatif, nilai saham kelima belas korporasi itu berhasil meroket hingga 46% sejak melantai pada 2017.

Capaian itu berada di atas prestasi yang diperoleh perusahaan-perusahaan AS pada periode yang sama. Pasalnya, dari 105 korporasi Paman Sam yang mulai melantai tahun ini, nilai kenaikan saham gabungan mereka hanya mencapai 11% pada tahun ini, walaupun dana yang berhasil dikumpulkan dari aksi IPO mereka mencapai US$23,6 miliar.

“Perusahaan-perusahaan Asia cukup menikmati lingkungan pasar yang kondusif di AS. Di sisi lain, investor di bursa AS, juga mulai memahami bagaimana prospek perusahaan asal Asia di industrinya masing-masing,” kata Bruce Wu, Co-Head of Citigroup Inc Greater China Equity Capital Markets Group, seperti dikutip dari Bloomberg, Senin (23/10).

Wu mengatakan, catatan tersebut berpeluang memicu aksi IPO baru dari perusahaan Asia yang akan melampaui catatan yang pernah ditorehkan Alibaba Group Holdings Inc. pada September 2014. Kala itu, perusahaan asal China itu melakukan aksi penawaran saham perdana dengan nilai US$25 miliar.

Adapun baru-baru ini, perusahaan asal Negeri Panda China Quadian Inc telah secara resmi melakukan IPO di bursa Paman Sam pada Selasa (17/10). Perusahaan pemberi pinjaman online itu berhasil mengumpulkan dana US$900 juta pada ahari perdananya melantai, sehingga menjadikannya korporasi dengan nilai IPO terbesar keempat tahun ini.

Selain itu, aksi korporasi Quadian tersebut, berhasil mengerek nilai kapitalisasi pasar perusahaan hingga US$10,9 miliar. Chief Financial Officer Qudian Carl Yeung mengatakan visibilitas dan ekosistem investasi yang dihadirkan oleh bursa AS adalah faktor penentu utama perusahaan untuk memilih lokasi tersebut untuk melakukan IPO.

"Kami percaya bahwa kami akan mendapatkan likuiditas yang baik di bursa AS. Kami juga melihat investor di sini dapat menghargai apa yang dapat dicapai oleh perusahaan kami selama ini,"kata Yeung.

Sementara itu, selain Quadian, dua perusahaan berbasis Asia lainnya juga berhasil mencatatkan catatan yang baik saat melakukan debut perdagangan di bursa AS pada Jumat (21/10). Kedua perusahaan itu adalah Sea Ltd dan China's Rise Education Cayman Ltd.

Sea Ltd., pemilik platform permainan Garena, berhasil mengumpulkan US$ 884 juta di hari pertamanya melantai di Paman Sam. Perusahaan juga berhasil meningkatkan ukuran penawaran menjadi 59 juta lembar saham dari target awalnya 49,7 juta lembar saham.

Di sisi lain, China's Rise Education Cayman Ltd. berhasil mengumpulkan US$ 160 juta dalam aksi penawaran saham perdanannya, meskipun nilai sahamnya menembus US$ 14,50 per lembar saham. Nilai saham tersebut naik 19%.

Sumber : bloomberg

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china daily: Economy expands by 6.8% in Q3, says NBS
By Xin Zhiming | chinadaily.com.cn | Updated: 2017-10-19 10:23
Economy expands by 6.8% in Q3, says NBS
China's economy expanded by 6.8 percent in the third quarter of this year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Thursday.

GDP growth in the first three quarters was 6.9 percent and it was 6.9 percent in both the first and second quarter. Growth has remained within the range of 6.7 percent to 6.9 percent for nine consecutive quarters.

"It shows that the economy is very resilient," said Xing Zhihong, spokesman of the NBS, at a news conference.

Xing also said the country's economic structure has further improved as industrial upgrading is well underway and the services industry has played a more important role in boosting overall growth.

The NBS data show that China's industrial output grew by 6.7 percent year-on-year in the first three quarters, up by 0.7 percentage point compared with the same period of last year.

Fixed-asset investment increased by 7.5 percent from January to September, down from 8.2 percent in the same period of last year.

Retail sales, meanwhile, expanded by 10.4 percent in the first three quarters, unchanged from a year ago.

The bureau said the trend of the economy stabilizing and improving had continued in the first three quarters and there have been more favorable factors supporting middle- and high-rate growth of the world's second-largest economy.

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market view: The Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008 was borne out of exuberance in the West but not in the East and although Asian economies were impacted by the slowdown in global growth, Asian economic credibility was never called into question.

The only economy that is showing a worrying trend is China. A credit boom following the GFC has seen debt-to-GDP balloon from 160% in 2008 to 260% in 2017. The nature of this debt however is different from that accrued by South East Asian Countries in the late 1990’s. Firstly, most of the debt lies with state owned enterprises (SOEs) and is hence backed by the >$3tn worth of foreign exchange reserves, and most of it is denominated in renminbi. Secondly, although China operates a managed exchange rate regime against a basket of trading currencies, the capital account is closed which restricts the amount of speculative flows. Finally, a lot of the debt is owned by domestic institutions and is long term in nature which reduces the likelihood of enforced withdrawal leading to a liquidity crisis.

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market views: However there has been more excitement on the UK’s alternative market, AIM, adds Wild: ‘Perhaps the biggest story to pass under the radar in August was the AIM market’s break above 1,000 for the first time since summer 2008. It’s easily outperformed the other domestic indices in 2017 so far, rising 20% in the past eight months.

Further afield, a number of commentators have highlighted the high valuation of the US market. Money Observer makes the point that the S&P 500 index’s CAPE ratio (which compares companies’ average annual earnings over 10 years (adjusted for inflation) with their share price) has only been higher on two occasions –1929 and 1999, in each case shortly before financial catastrophe struck.

However, emerging markets rewarded investors in August. ‘Despite Indian growth disappointing at 5.7%, emerging markets had a good month with both China and Russia performing well – the Hang Seng was the best performing of the major markets increasing by 2.25% over the month,’ reports Ben Yearsley of Shore Financial Planning.

When it came to fund sectors, riskier assets – notably China and global emerging markets funds – were pipped at the post by Japanese Smaller Companies (Japan saw its strongest growth since 2015).

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Bisnis.com, JAKARTA — Ekspor Korea Selatan pada September berhasil melonjak ke rekor tertingginya sejak Januari 2011. Lonjakan permintaan dari China menjadi salah satu alasannya.

Kementerian Perdagangan Korsel melaporkan, ekspor meningkat 35% secara year on year (yoy) pada September. Perolehan itu berhasil menjadi kenaikan berturut-turut selama 11 bulan terakhir. Adapun, capaian bulan lalu tersebut berada di atas perkiraan pasar dengan pertumbuhan 25%.

“Permintaan China menjadi pendorong terbesar, setelah negara itu mencatatkan indeks manufaktur PMI [pruchasing managers index] tertinggi sejak lima tahun terkahir. Di sisi lain, data perdagangan ini menunjukkan bahwa ekonomi Korsel bertahan dengan baik di tengan ancaman konflik Semenanjung Korea,” ujar Kementerian Perdagangan Korsel, seperti dikutip dari Bloomberg, Minggu (1/10/2017).

Ekspor di Negeri Gingseng menunjukkan lonjakan di hampir 13 kategori produk. Dalam hal ini permintaan luar negri terbesar datang dari produk baja, semikonduktor, dan petrokimia.

Sementara itu impor juga naik 21,7% pada bulan lalu. Capaian itu berada di atas ekspektasi pasar sebesar 20,6%. Hal itu membuat surplus perdagangan negara tersebut mencapai US$13, 8 miliar dan menjadi rekor tersendiri sepanjang tahun ini.

Kementerian Perdagangan Korsel mengatakan, selain meningkatnya permintaan dari China, lonjakan ekspor juga disebabkan oleh keputusan sejumlah perusahaan jelang liburan Chuseok. Perusahaan Korsel memacu pengiriman sebelum libur perayaan panen raya Korsel yang berjalan selama 10 hari sejak 1 Oktober 2017.

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Bisnis.com, JAKARTA – Pergerakan sejumlah indeks saham acuan China berakhir stabil pada perdagangan ini, Jumat (18/8/2017), di saat optimisme investor seputar laba korporasi dan fundamental ekonomi yang kuat mengimbangi tekanan profit taking pasca penguatan akhir-akhir ini.

Indeks CSI300 di Shenzhen yang berisi saham-saham bluechip berakhir naik 0,09% atau 3,40 poin di level 3.724,67, setelah dibuka dengan pelemahan 0,38% di posisi 3.707,19.

BACA JUGA :

Adapun indeks Shanghai Composite ditutup naik tipis 0,01% atau 0,29 poin di level 3.268,72, setelah dibuka dengan pelemahan 0,46% di posisi 3.253,24.

Indeks Shanghai Composite naik 1,9% sepanjang pekan ini, pekan terbaiknya dalam lebih dari empat bulan, sedangkan indeks CSI300 telah menguat 2,1%.

Meskipun mengalami performa yang cenderung tak istimewa pada perdagangan hari ini, sejumlah analis melihat alasan untuk meyakini bahwa penguatan pasar akhir-akhir ini akan berlanjut.

“Kami berada di tengah rebound saham bluechip, dengan volatilitas yang relatif rendah. Hal ini didukung oleh sejumlah faktor termasuk data yang kuat, penyertaan oleh MSCI, dan reformasi lanjutan,” kata Pan Shaochang, seorang analis di Dongguan Securities, seperti dikutip Reuters.

Saham Nuclear Engineering Corp. Ltd. melanjutkan penguatannya baru-baru ini menuju penguatan mingguan sebesar 24,5%.

Pada hari Rabu (16/8), perusahaan tersebut menyatakan bahwa kontrak yang baru yang ditandatangani dalam tujuh bulan pertama tahun ini meningkat 17,2% dibandingkan dengan tahun sebelumnya.

Di sisi lain, saham teknologi memiliki performa buruk secara keseluruhan, dengan indeks ChiNext turun 0,6% persen setelah naik selama empat hari berturut-turut. Pekan ini, indeks ChiNext telah naik 4,6%.

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Pertumbuhan perdagangan China melambat secara signifikan di bulan Juli dibandingkan dengan bulan sebelumnya, data resmi menunjukkan pada hari Selasa (8/8/2017), berada jauh di bawah ekspektasi setelah berbulan-bulan momentum stabil.

Analis mengatakan bahwa sementara tingkat ekspor dan impor masih kuat dari tahun ke tahun, data terakhir menunjukkan tren penurunan.

“Ekspor naik 7,2 persen year-on-year menjadi $193,65 miliar,” ujar administrasi pabean, menurunkan perkiraan Bloomberg News sebesar 11 persen.

Impor naik 11 persen year-on-year dibandingkan dengan kenaikan yang diharapkan sebesar 18 persen menjadi $146,9 miliar, yang mengangkat surplus perdagangan menjadi $46,74 miliar.

"Meskipun mengalami kenaikan pada akhir kuartal kedua, pertumbuhan perdagangan sekarang tampaknya berada pada tren menurun," ujar Julian Evans-Pritchard, seorang ekonom China di Capital Economics.

"Secara khusus, penurunan tajam dalam pertumbuhan impor sejak awal tahun menunjukkan bahwa permintaan domestik melunak," tambahnya.

Angka-angka perdagangan datang meskipun data ekonomi baru-baru ini positif, termasuk pertumbuhan PDB kuartal kedua yang diharapkan dari 6,9 persen.

China telah berusaha untuk mengurangi pelarian modal dan pinjaman bank yang berisiko, menempatkan pembatasan pada pembelian properti karena hutang negara tersebut memicu kekhawatiran akan krisis keuangan yang menjulang yang bisa berakibat global. Regulator sekarang fokus untuk mengekang "badak kelabu" atau “Grey Rhinos” sebuah istilah yang secara luas mengacu pada praktik keuangan berisiko yang telah lama terlihat namun diabaikan.

Istilah di China berlaku untuk beberapa perusahaan kuasi-swasta besar seperti Wanda, Anbang, dan Fosun yang telah menggunakan hutang murah dari bank-bank BUMN untuk mendorong ekspansi agresif di dalam dan luar negeri namun sayapnya sekarang terpotong oleh Beijing.

Data impor dan ekspor Juli mengikuti berlalunya pada hari Sabtu Resolusi Dewan Keamanan PBB yang secara signifikan memperkuat sanksi terhadap Korea Utara dengan melarang ekspor batubara, besi, dan penghasil mata uang utama lainnya.

China adalah mitra dagang Korea Utara yang paling penting namun telah menghadirkan front yang semakin bersatu dengan AS ke Pyongyang.

"Meskipun surplus perdagangan bulanan China meningkat, ketegangan perdagangan antara AS dan China telah berkurang setelah China bekerja sama dengan AS untuk mendapatkan sanksi ekonomi yang lebih keras terhadap Korea Utara," ujar Rajiv Biswas, kepala ekonom IHS Markit.

"Hubungan perdagangan bilateral AS-China saat ini didorong oleh kerja sama AS-China untuk membawa Korea Utara kembali ke Enam Pihak Pembicaraan," pungkasnya.

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Until recently, the conventional wisdom was that China’s contribution to global reflation would be increasingly accompanied by those of the US and Europe. Yet, the realities may look grimmer than anticipated.

Usually, the term ‘reflation’ is used to describe the first phase of economic recovery after a period of contraction. More recently, ‘global reflation’ has been deployed to refer to the post-crisis past decade, which has been characterized by lingering recovery from the global crisis, despite ultra-low rates and quantitative easing.

During the global crisis, China accounted for much of global growth prospects, while the US, Europe and Japan coped with the Great Recession. Even today, China continues to drive a disproportionately large share of global growth.

However, as deleveraging has now started in the mainland, China can no longer raise future optimism single-handedly.

From debt to deleveraging

Today, China has its debt challenge. It evolved in just a decade. And while it can still be supported by catch-up growth and productivity, it is untenable over time.

In 2007, China’s total debt was 136 percent, of which most was private non-financial debt (115%). By 2015, Chinese debt had soared to 221 percent of GDP, of which most could be attributed to private debt (205%), as opposed to central government debt (16%).

China could continue to take debt, which would eventually end in a crisis, as evidenced by many advanced economies. Instead, since late 2016, the central bank has adopted a tighter monetary stance. Indeed, recent data on the decline of total social financing and broad money supply suggests that deleveraging has begun.

China’s debt burden is the result of the 2009 stimulus package, which contributed to infrastructure but unleashed huge liquidity and speculation, and the 2016 credit expansion, which heated property markets, despite tougher regulation.

Setting aside excessive leverage, both surges have had beneficial impacts internationally. The 2009 stimulus ensured global growth prospects and probably spared the world from a global depression. The 2016 credit surge allowed China to stabilize economy and markets, which, in turn, supported lingering recovery globally.

The big question is, if China accounts for much of recent global reflation, can the latter be sustained as deleveraging accelerates in the mainland?

Dreams and realities of global reflation

Not so long ago, there were still great hopes about sustained ‘global reflation.’ Last fall, the Trump triumph in the US elections unleashed great expectations about the coming of fiscal expansion, tax reforms, and deregulation. As a result, markets soared, which lifted confidence internationally. Thereafter, European recovery has been faster than in years, thanks to the French election, expectations of a ‘soft Brexit’, and Chancellor Merkel’s anticipated victory in German election later in fall.

Today, half a year later, it is clear that Trump’s fiscal expansion will move ahead far slower than anticipated and the administration’s credibility, perhaps even its future, is likely to be suppressed by the impending Mueller investigation, while the Federal Reserve is planning a third date hike in the fall.

In Europe, rising confidence ignores the fact that current growth rates remain predicated on ultra-low rates and tens of billions of euros for quantitative easing on a monthly basis. It may under-estimate the adverse impact of the lingering Brexit story, the challenges associated with French President Macron’s proposed labor reforms, as well as the potential implications of the struggling two mid-sized Italian banks. It is a recovery that, at least for now, relies on artificial lungs.

In the past decade, much of global growth prospects and recent global reflation can be attributed to China. In the next few years, China will continue to support global economic integration through the One Road and One Belt program and many other initiatives. But it can no longer fuel global growth and reflation on its own.

So the question is, have advanced economies really surpassed secular stagnation and are they today willing, but also able to do their share for global growth prospects?

Dr Dan Steinbock is the founder of Difference Group and has served as research director at the India, China and America Institute (USA) and visiting fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Center (Singapore). For more, see here.

The original, slightly shorter version was released by Shanghai Daily on July 3, 2017

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bloomberg: Investors who fret about when and how global central banks will run down their crisis-era balance sheets can be relaxed about the biggest of them all -- China’s.

Whereas the Federal Reserve’s $4.5 trillion asset pile is set to be shrunk and the European Central Bank’s should stop growing by the end of this year as the outlook brightens, China’s $5 trillion hoard is here to stay for the time being -- and could even still expand, according to the majority of respondents in a Bloomberg survey of People’s Bank of China watchers.

The PBOC balance sheet is a fundamentally different beast from its global peers -- run up through years of capital inflows and trade surpluses rather than hoovering up government bonds -- but it still matters for the global economy. Changes in the amount of base money in the world’s largest trading nation are having a bigger impact than ever, making the variable key for stability in a year when political transition in Beijing is in the cards.

"China is more than a couple of years away from balance-sheet contraction," said Ding Shuang, chief China economist at Standard Chartered Plc in Hong Kong, pointing out that the growth in the broad money supply is still behind the government’s target.

The balance sheet has broadly leveled off, and contracted in the first quarter of this year, though that was mostly through seasonal factors related to liquidity operations around the Lunar New Year, when the demand for cash surges. Now, with the Fed set to raise rates this year, the PBOC is still wary of accelerating cash outflows from China and may need to use reserves to support the currency even as trade surpluses keep piling up.

More than 70 percent of economists said they predict that the balance sheet will be around the same size or bigger by the end of the year, in the survey of 21 institutions including Bank of China Ltd, Nomura Holdings Inc. and Societe Generale SA. Four economists said the balance sheet would expand, while six said it would contract further.

China’s policy makers said last month in their quarterly monetary policy report that the PBOC balance sheet involves more complicated factors than those of central banks in developed nations and can’t really be compared. Holdings are affected by foreign exchange purchases, monetary tools, fiscal policy, seasonal factors and financial reforms, it said.

“Shrinking the balance sheet doesn’t mean tightening monetary policy," the PBOC said in the report, adding that lowering the reserve requirement ratio for banks amid capital outflows may actually reduce the balance sheet while also easing monetary policy.

While the Fed and other developed-market central banks were busy rescuing their economies after the financial crisis by lending freely to banks and buying government assets, China through its trade surplus and foreign direct investment was already seeing massive capital inflows that it had to manage. The PBOC’s sterilization of those inflows -- buying foreign currencies and injecting yuan into the economy -- meant its balance sheet kept growing.

To ensure all that liquidity didn’t drive up inflation, the PBOC required banks to lock away increasing proportions of their deposits, driving that ratio to 21.5 percent for major lenders at the peak.

By now, even after a period of capital outflows and yuan depreciation that have seen the PBOC’s assets slip from a high of $5.5 trillion in 2014, foreign exchange still makes up about two thirds of the pile. In the context of expected Fed rate rises that could threaten a weaker yuan and a renewed liquidity squeeze in China, the PBOC can’t afford to relax its guard.

At the same time, China’s less-developed financial system means that the central bank’s monetary base still significantly underpins bank lending, though lenders are now creating more money per unit of central-bank cash than ever before. The so-called money multiplier is currently above 5, the highest-ever level.

Read More: China’s Monetary Turbocharger Is Running at an All-Time High

Even so, until growth in broad money -- M2 -- reaches the government’s target of 12 percent, there’s little cause to reduce the balance sheet, even amid a campaign to weed out excess leverage in the system.

All things considered, the balance sheet will stay stable this year as long as capital outflows remain subdued or halted, according to Ming Ming, a former central bank monetary policy official who’s now head of fixed-income research at Citic Securities Co. in Beijing.

"China’s economy hasn’t come to a situation where it can tighten monetary policy to the extent of balance-sheet shrinkage or assets sales," he said. "Monetary policy will remain smooth and neutral this year."

— With assistance by Yinan Zhao, Heng Xie, and Xize Kang

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GUANGZHOU. Perekonomian China di kuartal pertama 2017, tanpa diduga-duga ternyata membuat kejutan. Data di investasi fixed-asset, penjualan ritel, dan output industri semuanya menunjukkan pertumbuhan positif di atas ekspektasi.

Akibatnya, pertumbuhan PDB China bisa mencapai 6,9%, lebih tinggi dari proyeksi awal sebesar 6,8%. Tapi angka-angka itu sepertinya sangat mudah untuk dimanipulasi, sehingga lebih banyak dilihat sebagai sinyal kebijakan moneter dan jendela untuk melihat kinerja perekonomian yang sebenarnya.

BACA JUGA :

Pada laporan yang diterima media, target tersebut merupakan yang terendah dalam 25 tahun terakhir, bahkan dibandingkan tahun lalu yakni sebesar 6,7 %.

Laporan itu menambahkan, target tersebut diproyeksikan sesuai prinsip dan realita situasi ekonomi yang dihadapi China saat ini, termasuk untuk mencapai target pembangunan masyarakat yang sejahtera pada 2020.

Pada 2017, China menargetkan 11 juta lapangan pekerjaan di wilaah perkotaan, atau lebih besar satu juta dibandingkan 2016.

Pertumbuhan ekonomi China pada 2016 tercatat 6,7 % dan menyumbang lebih dari 30 % dari pertumbuhan global, menurut laporan tersebut.

Dalam laporan tersebut juga disebutkan indeks harga konsumen naik sebesar dua % pada 2016, keuntungan industri naik 8,5 %, membalikkan penurunan tahun sebelumnya sebesar 2,3 %, konsumsi energi per unit GDP turun lima %.

Pada 2017, China akan terus menerapkan kebijakan fiskal proaktif dan kebijakan moneter yang prudent untuk memegang ekonomi dalam kisaran yang tepat, menurut laporan tersebut.

Sementara rasio defisit terhadap PDB tetap tidak berubah dari tahun lalu, defisit fiskal pemerintah ditetapkan sebesar 2,38 triliun Yuan, atau meningkat 200 miliar Yuan, secara tahunan.

Pemerintah juga akan menerapkan berbagai instrumen kebijakan moneter, menjaga stabilitas dasar dalam likuiditas, mempertahankan suku bunga pasar pada tingkat yang sesuai, dan meningkatkan mekanisme transmisi kebijakan moneter.

Upaya akan dilakukan untuk meningkatkan arus sumber daya keuangan ke ekonomi riil, khususnya dalam mendukung pertanian, pedesaan dan petani, dan usaha kecil dan mikro, kata laporan itu.

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quartz media: China’s economy expanded 6.8% in the fourth quarter of 2016, the latest official data (link in Chinese) show. For the full year, China’s GDP grew 6.7%, the slowest in 26 years—but within the government’s target range of 6.5% to 7%.

In each of the first three quarters of 2016, China posted a consistent 6.7% increase in GDP, raising doubts about the veracity of the figures. Earlier this week, local authorities in China’s northeastern Liaoning province admitted to inflating its GDP figures from 2011 to 2014, as officials sought to advance their careers.

Ning Jizhe, head of the National Bureau of Statistics, said during a briefing (link in Chinese) in Beijing today (Jan. 20) that the national-level statistics are “authentic” and “reliable,” but that the bureau would crack down on data fraud, which sometimes happens on local levels.

Analysts had forecast 6.7% growth for the fourth quarter.

Strong fiscal support, loose monetary policy, and a booming property market in the first three quarters of last year were the main factors that drove China’s economic growth in 2016, analysts say. Chinese banks extended a record $1.8 trillion of loans in the past year, as the government used more credit-fueled stimulus to meet its growth target, even at the risk of exacerbating debt levels in the economy.

The International Monetary Fund earlier lifted its forecast for China’s GDP growth in 2017 to 6.5%, citing continued policy stimulus. But capital outflows, debt, and geopolitical uncertainties will be the major risks for China’s growth this year, the IMF noted.

The national statistics agency also released a slew of other economic data on the same day. Among them, China’s fixed-asset investment, a key gauge of construction activity, went up 8.1% in 2016 from the year before, the slowest full-year expansion since 1999.

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SHANGHAI, KOMPAS.com — China mencatatkan kenaikan penjualan mobil dalam tiga tahun terakhir. Penjualan tertinggi adalah pada 2016, dengan 24 juta mobil terjual, atau naik 15 persen dibanding penjualan pada 2015.

Apa penyebabnya? Ternyata, banyak konsumen China yang berlomba membeli mobil pada 2016 seiring adanya pemangkasan pajak pembelian. Potongan pajak ini berlaku pada akhir tahun lalu.

Namun, pada 2017, penjualan mobil di China diperkirakan akan melambat karena insentif pemangkasan pajak pembelian melemah.

"Pastinya akan ada pelambatan," kata Xiao Zhengsan, Sekjen Asosiasi Diler Mobil di China, yang merupakan salah satu grup perdagangan Pemerintah China.

"Kami berharap produsen mobil akan memangkas ekspektasi (penjualan)," kata dia, seperti dikutip Wall Street Journal.

Data yang tersaji dari asosiasi, sebanyak 24,38 juta kendaraan terjual sepanjang 2016. Jumlah tersebut naik 15 persen dibanding penjualan pada 2015.

Persentase kenaikan tersebut merupakan yang terkuat sejak 2013. Saat itu, kenaikan penjualan mencapai 16 persen.

Wall Street JournalPenjualan mobil di China di 2016

Pelambatan

Produsen mobil di China sendiri memprediksi adanya penurunan penjualan hingga 5 persen pada tahun ini.

Sebagai perbandingan, 17,55 juta mobil terjual di Amerika Serikat (AS) sepanjang 2016. Jumlah tersebut hanya naik kurang dari 1 persen dibanding penjualan sepanjang 2015.

"Seiring naiknya pajak pembelian, produsen mobil dan diler harus lebih agresif dalam penjualan," kata Huang Xiaowei, analis di Ways Consulting Co.

Dia memprediksi harga mobil akan turun 6 persen tahun ini, jauh lebih dalam ketimbang penurunan harga mobil pada 2016 sebesar 3,7 persen.

Secara keseluruhan, kapasitas produksi mobil di China pada tahun ini diperkirakan naik 10 persen, sementara pertumbuhan permintaan hanya 7 persen.

Estimasi ini dipaparkan oleh bank UBS. "Tentunya hal itu akan menggerus profitabilitas produsen mobil," kata Hou Yankun, Kepala Asia Auto Research di UBS.

Insentif

Sejumlah produsen mobil berinisiatif memberikan sejumlah insentif untuk mengatasi kenaikan pajak pembelian mobil. Misalnya, Mercedes-Benz memberikan sejumlah insentif untuk beberapa modelnya.

Sementara itu, produsen lokal juga berupaya memberikan sejumlah diskon agar tetap bersaing di pasar China yang ketat, antara lain dengan penjualan mobil penumpang kelas bawah.

Alan Kang, analis LMC Automotive Ltd, memproyeksikan adanya pertumbuhan pada penjualan mobil penumpang sebesar 1,8 persen tahun ini.

💃

china daily: As 2016 has demonstrated, leaders must be responsive to the demands of the people who have entrusted them to lead, while also providing a vision and a way forward, so that people can have a better future.

True leadership in a complex, uncertain, and anxious world requires leaders to navigate with both a radar system and a compass. They must be receptive to signals that are constantly arriving from an ever-changing landscape, and they should be willing to make necessary adjustments; but they must never deviate from their true north, which is to say, a strong vision based on authentic values.

That is why the World Economic Forum has made Responsive and Responsible Leadership the theme for its annual January meeting in Davos. As leaders in government, business and civil society chart a course for the next year, five key challenges will warrant their attention.

To begin with, they will have to come to grips with the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which is redefining entire industries, and creating new ones from scratch, owing to groundbreaking advances in artificial intelligence, robotics, the internet of things, self-driving vehicles, 3D printing, nanotechnology, biotechnology and quantum computing. These technologies have only begun to show their full potential; in 2017, we will increasingly see what used to be science fiction become reality.

But, while the Fourth Industrial Revolution could help us solve some of our most pressing problems, it is also dividing societies into those who embrace change and those who do not. And that threatens our well-being in ways that will have to be identified and addressed.

Second, leaders will have to build a dynamic, inclusive multi-stakeholder global-governance system. Today's economic, technological, environmental and social challenges can be addressed only through global public-private collaboration; but our current framework for international cooperation was designed for the postwar era when nation-states were the key actors.

Geopolitical shifts have made today's world truly multipolar. As new global players bring new ideas about how to shape national systems and the international order, the existing order is becoming more fragile. So long as countries interact on the basis of shared interests, rather than shared values, the extent to which they will be able to cooperate will be limited. Moreover, non-state actors are now capable of disrupting national and global systems, not least through cyber attacks. To withstand this threat, countries cannot simply close themselves off. The only way forward is to make sure that globalization is benefiting everyone.

A third challenge for leaders will be to restore global economic growth. Permanently diminished growth translates into permanently lower living standards: with 5 percent annual growth, it takes just 14 years to double a country's GDP; with 3 percent growth, it takes 24 years. If our current stagnation persists, our children and grandchildren might be worse off than their predecessors.

Even without today's technologically driven structural unemployment, the global economy would have to create billions of jobs to accommodate a growing population, which is forecast to reach 9.7 billion by 2050, from 7.4 billion today. Thus, 2017 will be a year in which social inclusion and youth unemployment become critical global and national issues.

A fourth challenge will be to reform the market and to restore the compact between business and society. Free markets and globalization have improved living standards and lifted people out of poverty for decades. But their structural flaws－myopic short-term nature, increasing wealth inequality, and cronyism－have fueled the political backlash of recent years, highlighting the need to create permanent structures for balancing economic incentives with social well-being.

Finally, leaders will need to address the pervasive crisis in identity formation that has resulted from the erosion of traditional norms over the past two decades. Globalization has made the world smaller but more complex, and many people have lost confidence in institutions. Many people now fear for their future, and they are searching for shared but distinct beliefs that can furnish a sense of purpose and continuity.

Identity formation is not a rational process; it is deeply emotional and often characterized by high levels of anxiety, dissatisfaction, and anger. Politics is also driven by emotion: leaders attract votes not by addressing needs or presenting long-term visions, but rather by offering a sense of belonging, nostalgia for simpler times, or a return to national roots. We witnessed this in 2016, as populists made gains by fostering reactionary and extreme beliefs. Responsible leaders, for their part, must recognize people's fears and anger as legitimate, while providing inspiration and constructive plans for building a better future.

But how? The world today seems to be engulfed in a sea of pessimism, negativity, and cynicism. And yet we have an opportunity to lift millions more people out of poverty, so that they can lead healthier and more meaningful lives. And we have a duty to work together toward a greener, more inclusive and peaceful world. Whether we succeed will not depend on some external event, but rather on the choices our leaders make.

The coming year will be a critical test for all stakeholders in global society. More than ever, we will need responsive and responsible leadership to address our collective challenges, and to restore people's trust in institutions and in one another. We do not lack the means to make the world a better place. But to do so, we must look past our own narrow interests and attend to the interests of our global society.

That duty begins with our leaders, who must begin to engage in open dialogue and a common search for solutions to the five major challenges on the horizon. If they acknowledge that ours is a global community with a shared destiny, they will have made a first－albeit modest－step in the right direction.

klaus schwab :The author is founder and executive chairman of the World Economic Forum.

Project Syndicate

CH1NA atawa AMR1k

Monday, December 12, 2022

2017, 2022 (China tumbuh n kembang)

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